Welcome back to the treasure trove of fantasy football knowledge, where numbers, analysis and strategy converge to forge the path to fantasy glory. We’ll unearth the gems hidden within the numbers, decipher the code of matchups, and provide you with the guidance you need to make those crucial roster decisions. Okay, that may be a little deep and all, but you get the picture.
I’m back again to provide you with essential tools and tips for success in the Week 6 slate. No more dramatic narratives, hyperbole, or blatant metaphors to set the stage for the goodness that lies within (sorry, I did it again). Let’s just get right to it.
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1.
Starting off behind center, as always, I’m looking to the Peach State for a good QB play this week. Falcons QB, Desmond Ridder, has drawn plenty of criticism from the fantasy community for his lackluster performances to date. That narrative took a hit last week versus the Texans when he cobbled together his first 300-yard game and a 27.5 fantasy score. Ridder linked up frequently with Kyle Pits (7-87) and Drake London (6-78) throughout the game. He also led the team on a game-winning TD drive with under two minutes left in the contest. Is this the breakout we’ve been waiting for, or just an aberration?
We should find out quickly. The Falcons host the Commanders on Sunday, who are the 3rd worst in QB, scoring at 21.1 fantasy points per game. Only the Bears and Broncos are worse at 22.4 and 21.6, respectively. The Commanders have also allowed 10 passing TDs (4th worst) and only picked off 2 passes to date (26th best).
It’s no secret the Falcons are a run-first team, with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier routinely splitting over 30 carries per game. To their credit, the Commanders have been pretty solid against the run, landing in the top half of the NFL at just 14.6 fantasy points per game.
Bottom line, there should be plenty of opportunity for Ridder to build on last week’s success and approach another 20+ point fantasy day. Whether in season-long or DFS, if your recent QB carrousel has included names like Geno Smith, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones and Jimmy Garoppolo, perhaps you should look at Ridder this week instead.
Start: Desmond Ridder
2.
Where have you gone, James Cook? That’s not a rhetorical question. One of your fantasy managers (that is, ME) really needs to know. After strong rushing performances in Week 2 (123 yds) and Week 3 (98 yds), the last two have been underwhelming to say the least. In Week 4 versus the Dolphins, a 12-29 day was saved by the TD rush and a 48-yard reception. Ok, I can accept that.
Last week is just not acceptable. These stats are brutal 5 rushes for -4 yards (checks notes…yes, it’s right). As one of your faithful fantasy owners, I do appreciate the 3 receptions for 25 yards, though. Can we right the ship? Enter the New York Giants!
The Bills welcome the struggling (I’m being kind) Giants to western NY for a Sunday Night Football tilt. The Giants’ run defense should provide the medicine that will cure Cook’s ails. Over 5 games, the Giants are allowing the 3rd most rushing yards and the most rushing TDs in the NFL. Is it realistic to think a game of 100 rush/TD with 3 for 30 through the air is in the cards? I think so. Okay, I hope so…but I think so too.
Strong Start: James Cook
Moving on…
If you’re one of my many followers, just skip over these next two short paragraphs. You’ve seen them before.
If you’re new to @RazzballNFL, WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN? Seriously though, bookmark our site because my pals and I here at Razzball.com have everything you need week-to-week. Case in point, I suggest you spend some time with our free tools to help break down WRs and TEs. We call them the “Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed” tool, the “Slot vs. Wide Rest of Season Strength of Schedules” tool, the “Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide” tool, and the “Player Usage Data” tool. Like last week, I’ll be pulling primarily from these tools for the next few discussion recommendations.
3.
In the table below, I list the 5 most “accommodating” defenses allowing points to slot receivers (based on the total percentage of WR points scored). I also list the players most likely to benefit and share their overall routes run and, of that, the percentage from the slot. Basically, I’m trying to provide an easy table to connect the dots to give the highest probability of a slot WR taking advantage of the prime matchup. Judge for yourself.
Some names that stick out to me:
- I like Tyler Boyd against the Seahawks secondary, especially if he continues to get 7-9 targets as he’s been averaging over the past 4 weeks. With the injury to Tee Higgins, many thought Boyd would see a bump in usage, but it was actually Trenton Irwin who was the key beneficiary. With the Bengals offense finally coming around, both are good plays in the appropriate formats against one of the, if not the, worst defense against WRs.
- Darnell Mooney has the ability to produce for fantasy, but his usage is just too low to be trusted. He’s a TD-dependent play at this point. Proceed with caution, despite the prime matchup. Of course, DJ Moore is an every-week starter at this point.
- You’re playing Godwin and Evans (still “Q” with a hammy injury) every week in every format. Godwin is a great DFS play, too but expect high ownership.
- This week lines up nicely to be the Robert Woods breakout game we’ve been waiting for. His target share peaked last week, despite missing some game time with the rib injury, so monitor his status. The Saints limit the overall damage WRs pose, but a healthy share goes to slot receivers like Woods, so set expectations accordingly.
- Tyler Lockett is a great play in what could be a high-scoring affair. Coming off their BYE week, I don’t see any reason to hedge here.
4.
Same thing, but for wideouts this time:
Some names that stick out to me:
- Michael Gallup has really been a disappointment this year, and I don’t have a lot of confidence in a major correction here. He has a moderate ceiling, but the floor is just too low to be trusted.
- Drake London is a starter in every format. Set-n-forget for this week.
- Garrett Wilson is a starter as well and should have a nice game, but how high the ceiling depends much more on his QB and the pressure he faces.
- I really like Calvin Ridley this week…and so should you.
- The matchup would be nice for Alec Pierce, but he’s just not involved in the offense enough. Will Gardner Minshew under center have an effect? Well, it’s worth noting the Week 3 game against the Ravens, in which Minshew played the entire game, was also the only game Pierce was targeted more than 3 times (7 targets). So, he may be a good and cheap, under-the-radar DFS play to consider, but I’d still avoid him in season-long.
5.
To finish out my 5 things to know, let’s go visit the TE position.
I can’t believe I’m going to suggest this, but my TE play (i.e., reach) of the week is…Zach Ertz. This may not be a reach for you, but it is for me. Long story short, despite constant badgering from my pal Mitch Staniger, I didn’t really buy into his “resurgence” suggested in the first two weeks. During those two games, he logged 18 total targets, hauling in 12 for 76 yards or a total of 19.7 fantasy points (PPR). Sure, 19.7 points over two weeks is really nothing to get excited about, but you may recall the wasteland that was the TE position early on.
Fast forward to Week 6, the Cardinals face a Rams defense that allows essentially an equal number of receiving points between the slot and wide positions. They also rank 28th in the NFL versus TEs.
So, you’re probably saying, “You already covered slot vs. wide above. This is supposed to be about the TE.” Yes, you are correct, but I’ll counter with this stat: Ertz has run 54% of his routes from the slot position (and 44% in tight). So, I think we can safely make the jump to treating Ertz as a slot receiver this week. Add in the fact that Ertz is garnering 22.5% of team targets. This matchup has the potential to result in his best fantasy game of the season.
Start: Zach Ertz
There you go, another week of insights in the books. Best of luck in your leagues or DFS action, and don’t forget…
If you have Start/Sit questions leading up to kickoff, don’t forget to subscribe and tune into the one-and-only @RazzballNFL Start/Sit show on Sunday mornings. Right up to game time, @BobbyLamarco, @SkyGuarco, @Stiles08, and I will be answering all your fantasy football questions. Don’t miss it.
Look for my articles right here each week, and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret. I’m now on Bluesky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends.
