Maybe you follow me on Twitter and listen to the Razzball Fantasy Football Podcast hosted by Donkey Teeth and myself. If that’s the case, you may have seen or heard these numbers. However, if following me on Twitter and listening to a podcast is too much, here are some fun numbers to look at for the upcoming season and dynasty purposes.
Dynasty startups are under way. If you’re thinking about taking an older TE or WR early in the draft, this might give you a better understanding of what you’re signing up for with that pick.
At TE, since the merger, there have been 3 players that have 1000+ yard seasons after the at the age of 31 or older. The list is Tony Gonzalez, Delanie Walker, and Greg Olsen. If we move that to the age of 32, it’s a small list. ONE. One TE (Tony Gonzalez) has more than 1000 yards at the age of 32, and no TE older than 32 has ever reached that mark.
Certainly the TE position is more of a receiving threat in the modern approach, but age has not been kind at the position. Maybe it’s due to the physical nature? Or just natural aging? But Father Time doesn’t get cheated very often.
All I’m saying is, if you’re looking at Travis Kelce in the early rounds of your dynasty startup, know that his window is shrinking. If you’re already a Kelce owner, it may be time to move him at his current value. If you’re trying to trade for Kelce, feel free to use this stat, and if the owner won’t budge on his asking price, go find a younger TE to trade meaningful pieces away to fill the position.
If you’re looking at the TDs, there are 5 TEs that have scored 8+ times in a season after the age of 32. Even that skill seems to wane. I want to be clear, not trying to say he won’t be useful from here on out, but true elite numbers are likely on the decline in the next couple of seasons.
At WR, looking particularly at Julio Jones (31 years old) value, time is a little more forgiving.
- There have been 42 WRs (87 seasons) at 32 or older reach 1000 yards receiving.
- Moving the age to 33 and 34, the number drops to a total of 28 and 24 receivers respectively.
- At 35, the list gets model thin at 13.
- At 36 there were 3 players that put up a 1000+ yard season (Jerry Rice, Jimmy Smith, and Joey Galloway).
- And finally, after 36, there is only one, Jerry, who accomplished the feat at a ridiculous 39 and 40 years old.
So, Julio being a future HOFer, maybe he makes it to the 33/34 range, but asking for anything beyond 34 is the exception rather than the rule.
Andy Reid and Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Not a CEH fan boy. I’m on the other side trying to quell the hype. Start by saying, I acknowledge the potency of the Chiefs offense and what that could mean. I did a pre-draft profile on CEH, and spoiler alert, he was my 5th ranked RB coming into the draft.
In Andy Reid’ coaching history, there is only one RB that was consistently targeted over 100 times and/or had 70+ receptions in a year, Brian Westbrook. You’ve likely heard some comps that link CEH to Westbrook, but I don’t see it personally.
Westbrook was stronger, a better receiver, route runner, and in between the tackles back. Also, in the seasons where Westbrook received 100+ targets, the main receiving threats in the offense were Reggie Brown and Jason Avant.
If we look at Reid’s time in KC, the outlook is worse. Only a single RB over Andy’s 7 years in KC has had over 70 targets and receptions, in a season (Jamaal Charles 2013). BTW, the Chiefs wideouts that season were Dwayne Bowe, Donnie Avery, and Dexter McCluster. The next closest is Kareem Hunt with 63 targets in 2017.
The argument that Reid hasn’t had receiving backs, well, that’s just wrong; with a list including Lesean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Kareem Hunt, and Brian Westbrook. Each of those backs was a better receiver (and runner) than CEH. So, betting on CEH to break out based on gaudy reception numbers is betting on the exception, not the rule looking at Andy’s history with RBs in KC.
More like Raheem Must-start (terrible over used joke, I’m sorry) at the end of last year, but let’s take a look at the history of RBs at age 28. First, let me say that Mostert has a grand total of two 100+ yard games in his career, and they were both in 2019. Even last year, he wasn’t targeted more than 4 times in any single game, which only happened once.
Since 2000, there have been a grand total of 4 RBs that have their first 1000 yard season at, or beyond ,the age of 28 years old. Two of those were actually in 2000 with both James Stewart and Tyrone Wheatley (both coming off 900 yard seasons) finally recording their first 1000 yard seasons at the age of 28.
Since 2001, only two other RBs have accomplished this feat, Carlos Hyde last year and Justin Forsett in 2014. To recap, 2 in 2000 and 2 since then. You’re welcome to bet on the Shanahan offense, and I wouldn’t fault you for it, but just know, once again, you’re betting on the except… you know.
Please tell me you have more of these coming. It was very interesting read.
Side note: did you move CEH up after he got drafted by the Chiefs? As well, who were your top 5 rookie RBs before the draft and who are they after?
Thanks for the write up B_Don.
These are kind of free form as I get in discussions with people and go look up stats, but I will see about getting some more of these articles done.
Pre-draft – Swift, Dobbins, JT, Cam, CEH
Post draft – Dobbins, JT, Cam, CEH, Swift
Love Swift’s talent but the whole lions RB situation has me concerned. One more fun stat for you. The last 1000 yard rusher for the Lions was Reggie Bush in 2013. Before that, it was Kevin Jones in 2004. Post merger, there’s been a grand total of 6 Lions RBs that have put up a 1000 yard season.
Thanks for the detailed/quick response B_Don.
I hope I’m not pressing my luck here, but can you expand on your JK Dobbins rank (or provide a link if you already wrote something up on him). Why are you so high on him? Just trying to see what you see / take it into account.
No worries. A fantasy football writer that can’t take criticism or expand on his/her takes, isn’t a writer worth following. Couple of links below, my article, and our podcast where we talked about the top rookie RBs. Basically though, I think Dobbins is the most well rounded RB in the entire class with the college stats production to back up the film. I favor the dual threat RBs which is why JT falls a bit for me as I think his role may be more limited than the others.
Pro-football-reference is the best, you can’t beat it!
So good. I can pull up 50 player screens or I can run a Play Index query. USEFUL THAT
A potential breakdown of the Kansas City Chiefs targets for 2020
Travis Kelce, has not averaged a per game share below 8.5 in his two seasons with Patrick Mahomes.
Tyreek Hill, has not averaged a per game share below 7.4 in his two season with Mahomes.
Sammy Watkins, with a healthy Kelce and Hill in 2018, saw 5.5 targets per game.
Melcole Hardman, was a rookie last year and overall only saw 47 targets (regular season and playoffs). BUT, in five games, that either Hill or Watkins was not in the lineup, he saw five targets per game.
Damien Williams, the running back he is suppose to be replacing averaged a very healthy 4+ targets a game.
All of these players are back!!! I don’t see any reason we should expect Kelce and Hill not to see 250+ targets, Watkins is going to get his 5+ and when he misses time, and we know he will (30 games in six years), Hardman stepped right into his role.
Best case for this year, Clyde Edwards-Helaire soaks up all of Williams available targets. That still only paces around 64 total targets. I would caution that Williams is not going to go away completely in the passing game. Over his last 21 games, he has seen 3.4 targets.
Nice work. Plus they still have Demarcus Robinson and Darwin Thompson for the occasional deep shot or gadget play.