NFC South Preview, 2019 Fantasy Football

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Completed Previews: AFC North – NFC North – NFC East Part I – NFC East Part II – AFC East Part I – AFC East Part II – NFC South Part I

2019 projections referenced below are based on razzball.com 2019 projections managed and updated by our very own @RudyGamble . ADP, and strength of schedule referenced below are based on fantasypros.com consensus data.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints

QB Drew Brees

2018 Recap

QB8
Started 15 games _{(rested final game of season)}
Beat weekly projections 6 out of 15 games
36 TDs (4 rushing) / 6 Turnovers (1 FUM)
489 passing attempts (QB16)
20.3 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
- 17th easiest overall strength of schedule for QBs
- Favorable last half of the season
  - After Drews week 9 bye, 5 out of 7 matchups are against fantasy defenses ranked among the top 10 easiest for opposing QBs
  - Only 1 matchup against a fantasy defense ranked in the top 10 hardest, wk16 @ TEN

Brees’ 74.4 completion percentage led all NLF quarterbacks in 2018, taking the crown for a second straight year among starting quarterbacks. Two things caught my eye in Zach’s Pass:Run ratio article, New Orleans ranked #5 in slowest pace of play and #4 in highest run rates. It is not a surprise to see New Orleans lean towards a run heavy offense with the rise of stud back Alvin Kamara, joined with Mark Ingram as arguably the best 1-2 punch in recent years. The Saints parted ways with Ingram this offseason but brought in Latavius Murray. Murray has averaged 4.0 ypc over the course of the past 4 seasons. Look for New Orleans to continue to lean on the run game behind a top 5 offensive line in the league. A formidable running game helps Brees maintain his high completion percentage, but limits the high number of passing attempts we would like to see from a top fantasy QB. Rudy projects Brees to slide this season, finish 2019 as QB 13. At his current ADP of 78 OVR and QB7 he is slightly overpriced. Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, and Cam Newton are all projected to finish ahead of Brees but are getting drafted after him. The last four games of 2018, Brees averaged a measly 11 fantasy points per game. It’s hard to count out the future hall of famer but temper expectations in 2019.

RB Alvin Kamara

2018 Recap

RB4
Played 15 games _{(rested final game of season)}
Beat weekly projections 8 out 15 games
1 game over 100 yds rushing and 2 games over 100 yds receiving
5.4 receptions per game on 7.0 targets per game
4.6 yards per carry and 8.8 yards per reception
23.6 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
- 23rd easiest overall strength of schedule for RBs
- Rough start out of the gates (weeks 1-4), faces the #8 and #6 hardest fantasy defenses for opposing running backs in wk 1 & 4. No matchup against a fantasy defense ranked among the top 10 easiest
- Weeks 13-16, faces the #5 easiest fantasy defense in week 13 followed by the #10 + #4 toughest fantasy defense in week 15 and 16

Alvin Kamara stands to benefit from the departure of Mark Ingram’s 138 carries and 7 TDs. Kamara’s dual threat abilities and lead duties in a run first offense puts him atop the 1st round in fantasy drafts. Current ADP of 4 OVR and RB4, which is right in line with Rudy’s projection of an RB4 finish. The presence of Latavius Murray ranks Alvin behind the other ‘big 3’ backs. Saquon Barkley, Ezekielle Eilliot, and Christian McCaffrey lack the threat of a backup like Murray cutting in to their opportunity. The Saints have a recent history of utilizing 2-backs, I do not see that changing much with Brees and Co. keeping their eye on the prize, a deep playoff run. Just don’t let him slide past that 4 spot, his 23.6 fantasy points per game last season was good for #4 overall amongst all skill players (RB/WR/TE).

RB Latavius Murray

2018 Recap

RB38
Played all 16 games
Beat projections 5 out of 16 games
1 game over 100yds rushing
4.1 yards per carry
8.2 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
- 23rd easiest overall strength of schedule for RBs
- Rough start out of the gates (weeks 1-4), faces the #8 and #6 hardest fantasy defenses for opposing running backs in wk 1 & 4. No matchup against a fantasy defense ranked among the top 10 easiest
- Weeks 13-16, faces the #5 easiest fantasy defense in week 13 followed by the #10 + #4 toughest fantasy defense in week 15 and 16

Latavius Murray and Mark Ingram both finished with similar season stat lines in 2018. Murray, 140 att/578 yds/6 TDs and Ingram, 138 att/645 yds/7 TDs and both finished in the RB3/4 range (Ingram RB32). Look for NO to utilize Murray in a similar fashion. Projected to finish 2019 as RB36, Murray is right in line with his current ADP of 92 OVR and RB36. I’ve seen Murray fall well outside of his current 7th round price and outside of the top 10 in drafts. If you can get that kind of value for him then grab him up. Kamara owners should grab him for handcuff insurance. Even though Murray lacks the receiving prowess, if Kamara gets sidelined, he’ll still be leaned on in this run first offense.

WR Michael Thomas

2018 Recap

WR6
Played all 16 games
Beat weekly projections 7 out of 16 games
4 games over 100 yds receiving (1 game 200+ yds)
9.1 targets per game and WR9 in total targets (147)
125 receptions per game and WR1 in total receptions (125)
11.3 yards per reception and .56 TDs per game
19.7 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
- 16th easiest overall strength of schedule for WRs
- Tough start (weeks 1-4), no matchup against a fantasy defense ranked in the top 10 easiest. Matchups against the #8 and #6 toughest fantasy defenses for opposing WRs in week 1 & 4
- Sweet schedule after his week 9 bye (weeks 10-16), 5 out 7 matchups against fantasy defenses ranked in the to 10 easiest for WRs. Only one matchup against a top 10 toughest fantasy defense in week 15 vs TEN (#4)

Pairing an extremely efficient wideout with the most efficient NFL QB, from 2017-2018, is a recipe for fantasy football success. Don’t over think this one, Thomas is no doubt a top 10 WR in this league and depending on who you ask, arguably the #1 wideout. I like Thomas’ favorable schedule after his bye week, which can help propel you in to your fantasy playoffs. He is getting drafted as the #3 receiver off the board and #10 overall. If you were to ask 10 different fantasy writers how they would rank the top 10 fantasy receivers for 2018 you would get a different answer from all of them. Rudy has Mike projected to finish 2019 as WR6. If Mike’s your guy then go ahead and grab him, no one is going to question it.

NO Quick Hits: Brees is notorious for spreading the ball around to open receivers. After Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr is the next highest projected receiver in the offense at WR71. The addition of, capable veteran, TE Jared Cook curves the upside for 2nd year wideout Trequan Smith. Rudy has Smith projected to finish as WR83 and Cook to finish TE7. We have seen this offense produce fantasy relevant TE’s under Sean Peyton and Drew Brees, I like Cook as a later round TE with a current ADP of 76 and TE8. Cook is coming off his best fantasy season, posting as the TE5 under Gruden’s return in Oakland. After finishing outside of the top 10 in D/ST last season, Rudy has the Saints D/ST projected to finish #3. This unit is getting drafted outside of the top 10 at the position and provides late round defensive value for those of us that are smart enough to wait to grab one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

QB Jameis Winston

2018 Recap

QB22
Started 11 games _{(missed 3 games due to suspension, sat 2 games due to performance)}
Hit or beat weekly projections 8 out of 11 games
20 TD (1 Rush) / 17 Turnovers (3 FUM)
378 passing attempts
17.8 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
- 14th easiest overall strength of schedule for QBs
- Attractive start leading up to his week 7 bye (weeks 1-6), 4 out of 6 matchups are against fantasy defenses ranked among the top 10 easiest for opposing QBs
- Uninspiring finish to the fantasy season (weeks 13-16), no matchup against a fantasy defense ranked among the top 10 easiest. One matchup against a top 10 toughest fantasy defense, #7 @ JAC week 13

Jameis’ 17.8 fantasy points per game had him tied for QB14 on the season. The upside is there for Jameis this season as he his joined by new ‘air raid’ and QB whisperer head coach, Bruce Arians. With a bottom of the barrel defense and average, at best, running game look for the Bucs to pass a lot this season. The good news for Jameis, he has a stable of pass catching studs running routes for him at the WR and TE positions. His current price tag is 111 overall and QB15 off the board. Rudy has Jameis finishing slightly behind his projection with a QB19 finish. I’m actually surprised to see his projections that low. Razzball_MB has him ranked as QB11 in his QB tiers article, I’m not sure if that’s the most homer thing I’ve seen so far this offseason or the fact Carson Wentz is on all of my fantasy rosters thus far. I like Jameis’ upside and don’t mind grabbing him at his current price.

RB Peyton Barber

2018 Recap

RB27
Started all 16 games
Beat weekly projections 5 out 16 games
1 game over 100yds rushing
1.3 receptions per game on 1.8 targets per game
3.7 yards per carry and 4.6 yards per target
8.1 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
- 28th easiest overall strength of schedule for RBs
- Brutal finish to the fantasy season (weeks 13-16), no matchup against a top 10 easiest fantasy defense and 3 matchups against fantasy defense ranked among the top 10 hardest, #5 wk13 @ JAC – #10 wk14 vs IND – #7 wk16 vs HOU

There is a lot of chirping coming out of TB regarding Ronald Jones ‘breaking out’ this season, which I am having a hard time buying. RoJo underwhelmed last season after receiving a lot of pre-fantasy draft hype. The guy recorded a total of 30 touches over the 9 games he suited up, that’s 3.3 touches per game. Even if Jones is expected to garner more touches this season it will more likely be in the passing game as Barber was non-existent in that department. I just don’t see Jones taking over lead rushing duties unless he does prove us wrong this preseason. The Bucs run blocking is horrendous, pair that with a rough strength of schedule, an expected pass heavy offense, and I am out on this backfield. Barber does provide a lot of value at his 123 ADP and RB45. Rudy has Barber to finish the season as RB3 which is in that RB3/4 range. I don’t mind grabbing Barber as your bench RB4/5, if you are able to get him outside of round 12.

WR Mike Evans

WR9
Started all 16 games
Beat weekly projections 8 out 16 games
8.7 targets per game and WR10 in total targets (139)
7.2 receptions per game and WR12 in total receptions (86)
17.7 yards per reception and .5 TD per game
12.4 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
- 18th overall strength of schedule
- Attractive start to the season leading up to his week 7 bye (weeks 1-6), 4 out of 6 matchups against fantasy defenses ranked among the top 10 easiest. Only one matchup against a top 10 hardest for opposing WRs, wk3 vs NYG (#6)
- Brutal finish to the season (weeks 13-16), faces the #2, #4, and #9 toughest fantasy defenses (wk13 @ JAC – wk14 vs IND – wk16 vs HOU)

Rudy has Evans projected to finish the season as WR14 behind his current ADP WR8 and 20 OVR. Adam Humphries leaves behind 105 targets to divvy up amongst Evans, Godwin and Howard. Bruce Arians vertical passing game and ability to coach up QBs bodes well for Evans upside. A below average run game and defense will force a lot of positive game scripts for Evans and Co., playing catchup and passing the ball more. I like Evans chances to beat Rudys projection in 2019. Evans should come out of the gates hot with favorable matchups leading up to his bye week. Maybe the play with Evans is to sell high on Mike before your leagues trade deadline and finesse your league-mates before his tougher matchups down stretch of the fantasy season.

WR Chris Godwin

2018 Recap

WR27
Played all 16 games
Beat weekly projections 7 out of 16 games
5.9 targets per game and t-WR32 in total targets (95)
3.7 receptions per game and t-WR36 in total receptions (59)
14.3 yards per reception and .44 TD per game
11.6 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
- 18th overall strength of schedule
- Attractive start to the season leading up to his week 7 bye (weeks 1-6), 4 out of 6 matchups against fantasy defenses ranked among the top 10 easiest. Only one matchup against a top 10 hardest for opposing WRs, wk3 vs NYG (#6)
- Brutal finish to the season (weeks 13-16), faces the #2, #4, and #9 toughest fantasy defenses (wk13 @ JAC – wk14 vs IND – wk16 vs HOU)

Chris Godwin is entering the highly anticipated “3rd year WR breakout” stage and is getting all of the hype this offseason. His current ADP sits at 48 OVR and WR20 off the board. Slightly overvalued compared to Rudys projection of WR31. If Jameis is able to live up to the hype that comes with Bruce Arian’s vertical offense, then ‘maybe’ Godwin will live up to his current ADP. The targets vacated by Humphries helps Godwin solidify the bonafide WR2 spot in this offense. His current ADP is close to his ceiling and you are paying a premium for him to hit that ceiling. Tyler Lockett, Corey Davis, Allen Robinson, and Alshon Jeffery are true #1 receivers on their respective teams and are all getting draft behind Godwin, but projected to out produce. I would love to get Godwin on a couple rosters but his price is just too rich for my blood.

TE OJ Howard

2018 Recap

TE14
Played 1o games _{(missed 6 games due to ankle injury)}
Beat projections 8 out of 10 games
4.8 targets per game
3.4 receptions per game
16.6 yards per reception and .5 TDs per game
12.1 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
- 18th easiest overall strength of schedule for TEs
- Start of season (weeks 1-4), only one matchup against a top 10 easiest fantasy defense in wk2 @ CAR (#5) and only one matchup against a top 10 toughest fantasy defense in wk1 vs SF (#7)
- Above average finish to the season (weeks 13-16), no matchup against a fantasy defense ranked in the top 10 hardest. Faces the #10 and #2 easiest fantasy defense for opposing tight ends in wk 14 and 16

Unless you plan on grabbing one of the big three TE’s (Ertz, Kelce, Kittle), are playing in a two TE league, or TE premium scoring league please wait on grabbing a TE. Even though OJ is projected to finish inside the top ten at the position, TE8, there is less than a 20 point differential from TE8 and TE15. His 144.7 projected fantasy points is equal to a WR45 finish. O.J. is criminally overvalued, getting drafted 58th overall and TE4 off the board. He does carry upside in a pass heavy offense but a high upside TE doesn’t carry much weight when his ADP of 58 is in between the WR23-24 whom are both projected to outscore OJ by ~50 points and in between RB27-28 whom are projected to outscore OJ by ~20 points. Dont’ do it!!

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Next Up: AFC South Part I – Houston Texans + Indianapolis Colts

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