It is Week 11, and there are four defenses on a bye this week: the Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and the New Orleans Saints. Fortunately, so many more defenses are ready for you to attack.
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Attack of the Quarterback
Jordan Love vs. Los Angeles Chargers, Chargers -3, o/u 44
Brandon Staley’s Chargers’ defense is where quarterbacks go to get right. New York Jets’ Zach Wilson finished as QB7, and Chicago Bears back-up Tyson Bagent finished as QB2 against them.
Quarterbacks going up against them have a 99.0 rating, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. The Chargers pass defense is allowing 291.2 passing yards per game. And the front seven, who averaged 3.4 sacks per game, didn’t have a sack against the Detroit Lions last week. The Chargers have had zero sacks on 33 dropbacks.
Now, here is where it gets better. The Packers offensive line ranks first in pressure rate allowed (28%). Behind this line, Love has thrown for a touchdown eight times in nine games. He has multiple touchdown passes four times.
Last week, Love was 21 of 40 and had 289 passing yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. He was sacked once. And he ran for 11 yards on two rushing attempts. For the season, Love has thrown 14 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. He averages 6.7 yards per attempt and has equally targeted running back Aaron Jones, tight end Luke Musgrave, and receivers Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed. The Packers don’t lack the weapons, and we have seen glimpses of the ‘good’ Love. The Chargers defense is the perfect opportunity for the good to outshine the bad.
Attack of the Running Back
Tony Pollard -10.5 @ Carolina Panthers, 41.5 o/u
It is almost time to give up on Pollard…almost. Yes, in what should have been a smash last week, Pollard lagged behind Rico Dowdle. Although Pollard outcarried Dowdle 15-12, Dowdle was the more efficient. Dowdle finished averaging 6.6 yards per carry, and Pollard averaged 3.7 yards per carry.
Inside the 20-yard line, Pollard had four rushing attempts for 21 yards, while Dowdle had two rushing attempts for 13 yards and one touchdown. It was also inside the 10-yard line that Dowdle was more efficient. Dowdle had one carry for one yard and one touchdown. Pollard had three attempts and did not see a touchdown. This was while Pollard was on the field for 69.2% of the offensive snaps to 28.2% for Dowdle.
But Pollard is the money back and will surely get his chances in another smash spot.
The Carolina Panthers’ problems do not all lay in the hands of rookie quarterback Bryce Young. The Panthers defense is 28th in missed tackles (11.8%) and 32nd in adjusted line yards (4.85).
The Cowboys are a 10.5 road favorite, and we saw last week they are not inclined to take their foot off the gas when ahead. Trust Pollard one more time. But honestly, I wouldn’t fault you for playing a little Dowdle in your DFS lineups.
Attack of the Wide Receiver
Kyle Philips @ Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5, 40.5 o/u
The Jacksonville Jaguars allow 78% of their receiving totals to the wide. The Jaguars allow 40.2 passing attempts to the quarterback, and in his last two games, Will Levis has attempted 39 passing attempts.
Philips has led the Tennessee Titans receivers in the last two weeks. In Week 9 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Philips had five targets, four receptions, and 68 yards. Last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Philips again led with five targets, three receptions, and 61 yards.
The slight problem is that his quarterback has not thrown a touchdown pass since he exploded touchdown passes in Week 8. While DeAndre Hopkins is still leading in targets (Week 10: 8-5; Week 9: 11-5), Philips is leading in receiving yards.
The Jaguars allowed Pittsburgh Steelers Mitchell Trubisky a touchdown pass before their bye week. And after the bye week, San Francisco 49ers Brock Purdy had three touchdown passes.
Philips is due for a positive touchdown regression, as is Levis. The Jaguars’ defense has allowed 14 touchdown passes (tied for sixth most).
Attack of the Tight End
Don’t overthink part of the segment. You are in luck. This week, you don’t need to overthink your tight ends, sort of.
The Los Angeles Rams allow the second-most fantasy points to the tight end position. They have given up five touchdowns and 9.5 fantasy points. Here is the problem. They are playing the Seattle Seahawks, who haven’t been targeting the tight end lately.
Will Dissly has only nine targets. Noah Fant has 20 targets. The Seahawks are only -2.5-point favorite. Fant is clearly the TE1, but the lack of looks from Geno Smith is disconcerting.
So, consider this: Tyler Conklin @ Buffalo Bills -6.5, 40.5 o/u. Forget what Conklin did in their first meeting. Since then, Conklin has 12.6 fantasy points in his last two games. He has 13 targets, 13 receptions, and 136 yards. Conklin (unlike Smith) is Zach Wilson’s second read.
In a shallow, tight-end pool, look for Conklin to keep you afloat.
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