First, let me be the one-thousandth person to remind you that there are Thursday and Friday games this week. And while I don’t do early games, I would like to remind you that there are some pretty tasty defenses that you might want to jump on early and hard. Ahem, I am looking at you, Jack Del Rio.
And, of course, I want to wish everyone a happy and safe holiday. Let’s get to those defenses who will help you win because they are sieves. But first, the obligatory review of last week’s advice. I completely and absolutely blew it with the Kyle Philips suggestion! (If it’s any consolation, playing Philips knocked me out of a suicide league and destroyed my DFS lineups—sure, he had help, but he has to shoulder the majority of the blame!). ONE reception, 10 yards, and ONE target. Are you kidding me? To be fair, DeAndre Hopkins had four receptions on a team-leading five targets. But at least Hopkins had the generosity of scoring a touchdown on his team-leading 59 yards.
I’ll do better, I promise. So, here we go!
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Attack of the Quarterback
Desmond Ridder v New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons -1, 41.5 o/u
Let me preface this by saying I have some trepidation, not of Ridder but of Arthur Smith. Smith doesn’t seem to understand. I don’t care if he hates fantasy football. I care that he wastes talent for a reason henceforth unknown to womankind. And that, my dear sir, is a far worse offense than hating fantasy football!
QUIT WASTING YOUR TALENTED TEAM! Please.
Back to Ridder, it wasn’t looking too pretty when last seen. Against the Tennessee Titans, he was 8 of 12 for 71 yards with three rush attempts for 26 yards. But truth be told, Ridder isn’t the worst quarterback out there. Before the Tennessee game, he threw for 250 yards, 307 yards, and 329 yards, respectively. He had three touchdowns, and yes, he had three interceptions, but they were all in one game against the Washington Commanders when they weren’t letting their two best linemen go. (How is that working out for you, Del Rio, two words, Tommy DeVito).
Again, I digress.
Ridder and the Falcons will host the Saints, coming off their bye week. And while the Saints are eighth in passing yards allowed (199.1) in their last three games, they have averaged 227.3 passing yards allowed. That includes giving up 220 yards and two touchdowns (okay, three interceptions) to Chicago Bears backup quarterback Tyson Bagent. The list also includes two touchdowns (one interception) and 213 yards to Indianapolis Colts Gardner Minshew and 204 yards and a touchdown to a then struggling Trevor Lawrence.
As @RossJacksonNOLA on Locked on Saints describes,
https://youtu.be/phQIxL24y1U?si=gNirYEXU0r9QnPEl
the Saints’ defense is good, but someone with Ridder’s abilities can hold his own. I’m not saying Ridder is all-worldly. He is, after all, 27th in points per game (27.3), 21st in red zone attempts (3.6/g) and 25th in EPA +17.4.
Ridder’s fantasy performance has been splotchy. He scored as high as 26.2 fantasy points, and games he completed scored as low as 6.3.
Josh Dobbs scored 25.1 fantasy points against them, Minshew 15.8, and Bagent had 18.8.
Let’s hope Arthur Smith has a firm grasp on reality and utilizes his weapons, and Ridder and our fantasy fortunes become the delightful by-product of Smith’s bye-week epiphany.
Attack of the Running Back
Rachaad White @ Indianapolis Colts -1.5, 42.5 o/u
The Colts are ranked 25th in rushing yards allowed (129.7), but in their last three games, they have allowed 155.3 rushing yards allowed. That’s nice, but for our purposes, the Colts are also giving up 38.9 receiving yards with 6.3 targets to the running back position.
In Week 8, they allowed New Orleans Saints Alvin Kamara to gather up 51 receiving yards and a touchdown on four receptions. Before their bye week, the New England Patriots Rhamondre Stevenson collected three receptions on five targets for a disappointing 14 yards. That was more on Stevenson and the Patriots than the Colts’ stellar defense.
White’s rushing numbers are pedestrian. He is averaging 3.3 yards per carry and has four rushing touchdowns. In standard fantasy leagues, he is currently RB14. That number jumps to RB6 if you are in PPR leagues. That is because White is averaging 4.1 targets per game, 8.6 yards per reception, with a 13.0% target share. White has an improbable 93.2% catch rate, and his 28 red zone touches don’t hurt.
Last week, White was tied for second on the team in targets (7) in a losing effort. White had three targets in their Week 10 win against the Tennessee Titans with one receiving touchdown. He also had 20 carries.
White is utilized whether they are winning or losing. He has a snap share of 76.5%. Attack the Colts’ defense with White.
Attack of the Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham Jr., @ Los Angeles Chargers, Ravens -4, 46.5 o/u
This is a Sunday Night prime time game. That alone is almost enough to roster OBJ, but wait, there is more. Unfortunately, tight end Mark Andrews is out. That’s a 22.2% target share and a 38.2% red zone target share that needs to be covered.
Beckham has become more pivotal in the Ravens offense as he has gotten healthier. He went from two targets (albeit with a touchdown) in Week 10 to seven targets, four receptions, and 116 receiving yards last week.
Then there is the Ravens’ opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, who just allowed Green Bay Packers Dontayvion Wicks 91 receiving yards on three receptions. Receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs added receiving touchdowns to the mix.
Per Razzball slot versus wide statistics, the Chargers are giving up an average of 24.2 fantasy points per game to the outside wide receiver. And if you don’t know now, you know that chart goes even further and tells you where every receiver on every team is making their money. Beckham is making his outside wide. He acquires 91% of his fantasy points out wide.
The Chargers and their fan base are in a free fall. Joey Bosa is out. And after allowing rookie Wicks to carve them up on three receptions, attacking the Chargers defense with Beckham seems just logical.
Attack of the Tight End
Pat Freiermuth @ Cincinnati Bengals, Steelers -1, 34.5 o/u
In case you haven’t heard, Matt Canada is no longer the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh. Whether that will make a difference remains to be seen.
But here is what we know: the Bengals allow an average of 63.8 yards per game to the tight end position. The Bengals also give up the fourth most fantasy points to the position (7.8).
Freiermuth is coming off IR. Last week was his first week back, and Freiermuth had one target in an offensive system that doesn’t exist anymore (she says, hopefully). It is impossible to know what role he will have, but as one of the pivotal three receivers on the team, he has to be good enough to take advantage of what the Bengals are offering.
Again, happy holiday week to you and yours. Be safe. And in your down time, come to Razzball…sit back, read, relax, and let us help you with your fantasy football needs.
