Each week I’ll be spending countless hours flipping coins in order to determine an order for my weekly rankings which will be published bright and early each Thursday morning. It’s an elaborate round-robin coinflipping system for each position. Wide receivers alone take me a full Monday worth of coin flips. And I’m currently in the process of filing for workers comp due to carpal tunnel. But it’s well worth it, knowing that you, the loyal Razzball reader, appreciate my pain and sweat. Just so you know you can trust me, here’s how my coin flipping system stacked up against all of the other 149 industry analysts competing against me in the 2020 Fantasy Pros Weekly Ranking Competition:

Anyway, here’s my week 18 rankings for half PPR 2021 fantasy football that will be frequently updated by coin flip up until kickoff:

*Don’t forget to purchase our tools subscription (we have a FREE 3-day trial!!!) for detailed weekly projections, snap counts and target share data. You won’t regret it!

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With one simple line of prediction, all the weeks of Air Yards analysis went down the crapper. Here it is, from the Week 16 Air Yards report:

“Antonio Brown might make the short list of 2021 playoff heroes after this week is over.”

Yikes. As one commenter pointed out, “that prediction did not wear well.” Brown also did not wear his jersey well, dropping it on the ground, and giving a farewell tour around the stadium just after halftime. At that point, his opportunity to help your fantasy team or his real life football team in the playoffs disappeared faster than the cannon smoke from Raymond James Stadium.

But Air Yards, like many other advanced stats, tells us what could (or perhaps should) happen given similar circumstances over time. Brown smashed in Week 16 with no Chris Godwin or Mike Evans. Given similar circumstances plus playing-time incentives in Week 17, we had every reason to believe Brown would manhandle the Jets. It was the process and in the process we trust. 

Until a potential mid-game retirement variable is introduced in to the Air Yards model, we will just have to rely on the data we have. What can 2021 air yards teach us for 2022? Let’s find out. 

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In a year where league champs may have started more than 1 player that they grabbed from the wire just to have a starter, Donkey Teeth and I discuss a bunch of players that won leagues and whether we believe in them for 2022. We start with the RBs and look at guys such as: Rashaad Penny, D’onta Foreman, and Darrel Williams to explore whether we believe they are worth acquiring this off-season. On the higher end, we look at Devin Singletary, A.J. Dillon, and Elijah Mitchell. 

We move on to the WRs and explore end of season stud Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Bears favorite, Darnell Mooney. Then, we explore some less heralded WRs that popped up at the end of the year. We only discuss one tight end’s end of year performance, and that’s the talented, but underperforming, Noah Fant.

Before we head out, B_Don breaks down some numbers from the end of season finishes at each position. Then, we explain how those positional point distributions affect our draft strategy. 

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Sunday morning has arrived and you spent all weekend on a drinking binge? Or worse (maybe better?), you’ve been up for 48 hours on six different types of drugs? Fear not, Razzball has all of your last-minute fantasy football needs covered. Over the past two days, Bobby has covered the key slot receiver matchups and key wideout matchups for week 17. Down below I’ll give you some sneaky start options who might be available in your free agent pool if you’re in a bind, as well as my recently updated week 15 rankings for half PPR leagues. Feel free to ask me questions in the comments if you think the rankings don’t address your specific circumstances. And please, please, please consider purchasing our 2021 fantasy football tools subscription. As intelligent and handsome as we all agree I am, my rankings are still packed full of bias and human error. Rudy’s computer model minimizes the human inputs and leans heavily on raw, untainted data inputs to provide a very valuable, differing viewpoint. Plus you receive all kinds of other benefits with your subscription including next-day snap count and target rate data. Anyway, here’s a few sneaky starts for week 17 of the 2021 fantasy football season:

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The goal of this article is to find WRs to buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 17. To keep up with the latest defensive trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.

The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide over the past 5 weeks.

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The goal of this article is to find WRs to buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key slot matchups for week 17. To keep up with the latest trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.

The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed to the slot over the past 5 weeks.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Air Yards have told quite the tale of the wide receivers in 2021. In the top ten list, air yards had some no-doubter homeruns like Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams. But there were also some swings and misses such as Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore and Courtland Sutton. If you were counting on any of these guys as your WR1/2, your season probably ended two weeks ago. But all is not lost! Store this info in the back of your mind and monitor these situations when quarterbacks start signing. Guys like McLaurin, Moore, and Sutton don’t just get air yards because they are lucky. Targets are earned and if these guys can get some more capable arms delivering the ball, they become the sleepers in your draft. 

Each week, this column dissects air yards for actionable info in the weeks to come, but for this column there will be a focus on championship week. For Week 17, we will do a quick analysis of the list of the 73 wide receivers who finished last week with at least 30 air yards and see if there are any diamonds we can mine from the rough.

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B_Don brings back JB Barry to fill in and get you ready for your championship week. We discuss the week 17 and dynasty rankings of some young WRs. From the return of A.J. Brown to Amon-Ra St. Brown to the Alabama WRs, and where they fall among dynasty WRs. 

With week 17 upon us, how are the guys approaching some of the week 16 performers at RB like Rex Burkhead, Chase Edmonds, Rashaad Penny, and Razzball’s second son, Dare Ogunbowale. At the end of the show, we talk about some of the potential weather and what games we may be on the look out for before we give you our “A**hole of the Week!”

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Each week I’ll be spending countless hours flipping coins in order to determine an order for my weekly rankings which will be published bright and early each Thursday morning. It’s an elaborate round-robin coinflipping system for each position. Wide receivers alone take me a full Monday worth of coin flips. And I’m currently in the process of filing for workers comp due to carpal tunnel. But it’s well worth it, knowing that you, the loyal Razzball reader, appreciate my pain and sweat. Just so you know you can trust me, here’s how my coin flipping system stacked up against all of the other 149 industry analysts competing against me in the 2020 Fantasy Pros Weekly Ranking Competition:

Anyway, here’s my week 17 rankings for half PPR 2021 fantasy football that will be frequently updated by coin flip up until kickoff:

*Don’t forget to purchase our tools subscription (we have a FREE 3-day trial!!!) for detailed weekly projections, snap counts and target share data. You won’t regret it!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It’s been a ride, folx. Some of you, you’re here because of completionism. You stopped by every other week and ya just gotta finish out the season, even though you’re out of the playoffs now. Others — you’re still fighting for the championship. What can I say — if you show up, I’m here to help. So let’s jump in and see what we can do to help you bring home the trophy. 

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Another pandemic plagued week in the NFL forced over 170 players to the COVID-19 list, and it has me thinking about the talent margin between starters, backups, and practice squad players. Houston Texans running back, Rex Burkhead (one of my favorites) ran for a career-high 149 yards and two touchdowns. Pretty good day for a 31-year-old veteran on the worst rushing offense in the league. Which begs the question, what if Rex had gotten an opportunity at a younger age? What if Rex Burkhead had been the starting running back for the Bengals at age 24?

While watching Rex take advantage of his opportunity, I see an advertisement for the Kurt Warner biopic American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story. Warner only got his opportunity after an injury to Trent Green. Trent was not exactly Wally Pipp. Green would eventually follow former Rams Head Coach Dick Vermeil to Kansas City and had a nice run with the Chiefs. What if Trent Green hadn’t gotten injured? Would there be an American Underdog story to tell? I implore you to be flexible when preparing your rankings. Prepare yourself for wild fluctuations in value and adjust accordingly. Situation and opportunity are the two most important factors to consider in fantasy football, and those factors are often in flux.

If you missed it last week, here is the top 10 for 2022 fantasy football dynasty leagues.

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Here we are faithful readers, the fantasy championship round. If you are here looking for a replacement or to block for your opponent because you are playing in the game of games this upcoming week: Congratulations! You have just one step left before you can grab the idol and run like mad from the falling temple. If you have been reading all season, I wanted to take a second to thank you all for making my first season as a fantasy analyst and writer with Razzball a (I think?) success. Special thank you’s to my faithful weekly commenters William Hung, Water Boy, Mike, OldMilwaukeePounders, Miles Proudfoot, JC, Packers2018, toolshed, Ralph, Russowl, Achilles, William Trill Cauley-Stein, and I Am Not A Smart Man. Helping you and all our readers has been a privilege and the absolute joy of my year. Before I hop in Jock Lindsey’s UBF-2 seaplane and ride off into the off season, here are a few recommendations for players you might find worth adding for the final week.

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