The Stats Machine, Week 6: The Sports Machine

Those of you in your 30’s shouldn’t have a hard time remembering George Michael’s Sports Machine. Running from 1984 to about 2007, and airing on Sunday nights, it was a 30-minute television show dedicated to providing the highlights of the past week’s sporting events. I did a quick search on Ancestry.com, and it turns out the Sports Machine and Stats Machine are very distant relatives. I hope George’s estate doesn’t sue me. Now that I have cleared that up, let’s move on.

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Betting with Beddict, Week 6: Peyton and Papa John End Rex Ryan’s Career

by: LT Murray IV

Overall: 31-29-1, Week 5: 9-6-0.

Greetings!!! Welcome to another exciting edition of Betting With Beddict. We’re back over .500 with a 9-6 week!!! If you’d like to join Sky and I to celebrate, just meet us down in Tijuana, as we’re trying to hit every donkey show in the city. I sent Fantasy Football Hottie a first class plane ticket, but no word on if she’s joining us or not. Either way, you need to follow her on Twitter as she’s a total peach (whatever that means). My lock of the week, the Seattle Seahawks (7.5) barely covered, but hey, that’s gambling. If it wasn’t for Dallas and Chicago choking like Lisa Anne on an 18 incher, it’d been a day for the ages. I’ve been celebrating my birthday all week, so please excuse the lack of wordiness, humor and usual Tehol-ness (I’m sure you’re devastated. Especially Jay). Last week, one of my favorite commentators, Goodfold2, joined in on the fun just to see how difficult this truly is. Him and I both cordially challenge you to join in and see if you can defeat me week to week or even throughout the season. If someone dominates me for a month or even an entire season I MIGHT just hit you with a Razzball T-shirt, cuz we homies yo. Just remember, if sports betting were easy, everyone would do it. The quest for the perfect week continues so let’s get it poppin’.

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There’s a Storm a Brewin’

October 11, 2014 | 2014 Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Buy/Sell | 17 Comments

by: malamoney

In 2009, when he was mounting a campaign to be the first white running back in 35 years to win the Heisman Trophy, Toby Gerhart was sometimes referred to as “The Great White Hope”. [Jay’s Note: Dat’s raycess.] I thought that was Peyton Hillis, but I could be wrong. Gerhart was a consensus First-Team All-America selection, the Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year, and one of 5 finalists for the Heisman Trophy. Despite winning the Doak Walker Award as the best running back in the nation and the Jim Brown Trophy given to the top running back in the country, Gerhart’s dream of breaking the Heisman barrier fell short as he finished in second place to Mark Ingram by 28 points, which was the slimmest of margins in 74 years. He was drafted in the second round of the 2010 the NFL draft by the Minnesota Vikings and spent the next 4 years as Adrian Peterson‘s backup.

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Start ’em and Sit ’em, Week 6: A Golden Opportunity

October 11, 2014 | 2014 Fantasy Football, Roster Strategy | 44 Comments

by: SethDaSportsMan

Fantasy football owners who drafted Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green can’t be too happy right now. Both receivers were first round picks, and because of injuries, they’ll likely both be sitting out this week.

Johnson, a consensus top-five pick, has done nothing so far to justify his lofty preseason ranking. Since exploding for 164 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1, the man known as “Megatron” has accumulated just 184 yards in the four games since, and he has zero scores to go with that paltry yardage total as well. A high-ankle sprain has been the culprit over the last two games and fantasy owners everywhere can only hope he gets the rest he needs in order to get him to full strength. He isn’t doing the Lions nor fantasy owners any favors by playing gimpy. Johnson had just three catches for 19 yards while being used as a “decoy” vs. the Jets and Bills, and he clearly aggravated the injury on his lone reception last week. Johnson “hopes” to play on Sunday vs. the Vikings, but the general sense is that he’ll sit this one out, and could possibly sit out through the Lions’ Week 9 bye. Being 3-2 affords them some wiggle room.

Green is in a similar situation to Johnson, though he’s been all but ruled out this week. The fourth-year pro aggravated his toe injury in Bengals’ practice on Wednesday and it looks like he could miss multiple games. Green hurt the digit in the team’s Week 2 win over the Falcons, but came right back and played vs. the Titans the following week. Choosing to play him there may come back to haunt the Bengals, because the way it sounded, his toe seems much worse this time around. Back in Week 2, the team was calling it a “sprained ligament”, but now they’re saying it’s “a little bit more [than turf toe]”. This is not what you want to hear if you’re the Bengals or own Green in any of your fantasy leagues. Unlike Johnson, Green has already had his bye, so if he’s going to rest, it’s gonna be during a game week. Green’s owners will just have to hope to hear some good news in the next few days.

With two big pass catchers on the mend, it puts owners in a real bind, so I’ve decided to do a wide receivers-only edition of “Start ’em and Sit ’em”…

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Handcuff Report, Week 6: The One Where I Apologize

October 10, 2014 | 2014 Fantasy Football, Roster Strategy | 55 Comments

by: Geoff

I’d like to begin this week’s installment of the handcuff report by apologizing profusely for ignoring Andre Williams last week. I seriously considered mentioning Williams value as a keeper, but ROS considered him nothing more than a deep bench stash or handcuff for Rashad Jennings. I had him buried down in the Duct Tape tier, with the Stepfan Taylor‘s and Ka’Deem Carey‘s of the world. Zoinks! Imagine a world of Stepfan’s and Ka’Deem’s! Oh snap, there is such a place? It’s my Duct Tape Handcuff tier! It exists in my mind, and it’s a shiny silver world where everything can be fixed with a couple inches of the good stuff. Jeez I went off topic real quick, back to Andre Williams. I knew that Rashad Jennings was quickly approaching his highest usage numbers of his career, and I knew that Jennings had some injuries during his time in Jacksonville. I chose to ignore it. Just as I chose to dismiss Williams’ 15 carry, 66 yard, TD breakout against Washington. I thought it was nothing more than some meaningless garbage time magic. After all, Jennings had been getting almost all the usage in the Giants offense. Before the Week 4 blowout, Williams had seen two games of 6 carries, and one game of 8 carries with four looks in the passing game. There was no reason to pay him much mind, and those touting him as a good stash were working off nothing more than a hunch that Rough Shod would break down.

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Target Practice, Week 6: Receiving Is Believing

October 10, 2014 | 2014 Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Buy/Sell | 31 Comments

by: malamoney

Without targets, there would be no receptions. Being targeted is the first, and most crucial factor, to the success of a pass catcher. If the ball isn’t thrown in your direction, you cannot succeed. I decided to take a look at how targets were being spread around among each team and then how each player was converting those targets. Below are the results and I’ve included a link to the Excel spreadsheet (Download) containing the full report. This exercise will only be “targeting” wide receivers and tight ends.

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J.J. WUT

October 10, 2014 | 2014 Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Daily Notes | 87 Comments

by: Jay

J.J. Watt has more fantasy points than LeSean McCoy. I just thought I would share that with you fine folks out there. With that being said, I also want to establish that we witnessed the first competitive Thursday Night Football game of the season… in Week 6. And it certainly did not look like that at first. The first quarter was actually written by Franz Kafka. The Colts built a 24-0 lead, and the Texans had run more plays than yards gained. And as the game started getting away from us all, like a small child being held by Adrian Peterson. Or like the freedom once held by Adrian Peterson. Adrian Peterson is an a**hat is what I’m trying to say. What I’m also trying to say is holy f*cking sh*t T.Y Hilton. And despite the Colts going Ivan Drago on the Texans early in the game, they amazingly gritted their way back with an insane display of footballing by J.J. Watt (good lord, I should have drafted Watt as an offensive player), Arian Foster staying injury free, and Andre Johnson actually proving that, in fact, he is alive and well. Yes, it was all in an effort so that Fitzmagic could lose by a closer margin than expected (oh Houston), but seeing as how we have to watch the Patriots win by at least 30 points next Thursday, this competitive game (mostly) was a wonderful reprieve.

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TNF, Week 6: Colts vs. Texans

October 9, 2014 | 2014 Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Gameday | 36 Comments

by: Jay

Since this game falls on Thursday night, I can only surmise that the Colts will win this game by at least 48,965 touchdowns. And I feel that might be on the low-end. In what will be a battle of two 3-2 teams, the Colts appear the stronger one-game-above-mediocrity team because of the weapons they have on offense. Led by Andrew Luck and his 1,617 yards, 14 touchdowns, and his amazing likeness to Hodor, both Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton are on pace for around 1,000 yard seasons, and for the first time in twenty years, Trent Richardson may finally end a season with more than 1.9 YPC. Haha, just kidding. No way that happens. On the flip side, you have Arian Foster and his everyday struggle to not get injured. I’m pretty sure they keep him in bubble wrap and sound alarms when he sneezes. He has 86 carries so far, which I call bullsh*t on. He’s never done anything more than 10 times without pulling a hamstring. Regardless, there are makings here of a decent game, so obviously it’ll be over in the first three minutes. HODOR.

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Streamers, Week 6: Streamers on Repeat

October 9, 2014 | 2014 Fantasy Football, Roster Strategy | 25 Comments

by: Nico

Good Afternoon, loyal followers! Yes, I’m talking to you! All four of you! If you feel a little déjà vu reading this article, it’s totally fine. You’re not tripping from all the hallucinogens you dropped following The Grateful Dead tour around the country… You’re just re-reading a few names you’ve read here already. Since I’m sure you’ve all been absorbing these stat-filled riddles like sponges, I’m going to attempt to give you some opinions based on personnel and personal (not a stutter!) observations I’ve noticed over the first third of the season. However, I can’t completely avoid the numbers, so just bear with me. On a positive note, the last three weeks have been quite a resurgence for the Streamer Department. We’ve nailed three Top-10 QB’s, three Top-10 TE’s, a Top-10 DST, and 2 Top-10 Kickers in that time span. Let’s get after it!

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The New Sanu “Revue”

October 9, 2014 | 2014 Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Buy/Sell | 15 Comments

by: Smokey

Yeah, you feel that motion going on in the way back machine? Yeah, the New Zoo Revue has never gotten any pub in the Razzball neck of the nape. It should. It has really trippy characters in over-sized sock puppy looking costumes and a really cute host. And when I say cute, I mean in a boots are made for walking kinda way. So this week’s play on words, I mean spotlight, is on the Mohamed Sanu. The surprising fact about Sanu is that he’s owned in only 40% of Yahoo leagues, the leagues where we all reside for RCL’s. I get that he’s the second, or third, or maybe even third fiddle there, but that’s why you come here. (To hear argumentative thoughts and banter from a bear with a gold chain, that may or may not have prevented anything, let alone a forest fire.) So why am I going with the Henrietta Hippo of the Cincinnati Bengals this week? The reasons are multifaceted, multi-syllabic and multiplicated… Okay, I ran out of vocabulary points for the last one, but you get the gist. So stick around to pick up what I am trying to put down, just don’t mess up my breadcrumb trail, because I need those to get out of here.

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IDP Rankings, Week 6: All About That Tackle

October 9, 2014 | 2014 Fantasy Football, IDP Report | 16 Comments

by: Kevin Kumpf

2014 In-Season Accuracy: 59.9% (2nd out of 21 Experts, 63.4% Highest, 43.1% Lowest).

Now that each team has played at least four games, we have somewhat of a sample size, at least by NFL standards. One or two big plays can still make a scrub look like a stud (Danny Lansanah anyone?), but in general the guys at the top of each position have earned their spot. So what do they all have in common? Tackles. The most consistent IDP stat doesn’t always, or ever, make headlines, but it does win championships. It’s the reason I was high on David Harris, should have been higher on Paul Worrilow, and was not high on Von Miller or Clay Matthews. If you see a fluke 3-sack or 2-interception game from a n0-name, it can likely be ignored. If you see a guy like Jelani Jenkins put up 14 tackles? Pick him up!

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Rankings, Week 6: Assessing the Landscape

October 9, 2014 | 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Weekly Rankings | 181 Comments

by: Jay

2014 In-Season Accuracy: 57.4% (25th out of 124 Experts, 60.6% Highest, 49.9% Lowest).

Week 5 Results: 56.5% (70th out of 131 Experts, 69.4% Highest, 47.0% Lowest).

I’ve been meaning to do a self-audit for a while now, a way of tracking how well I’ve been doing in regards to ranking accuracy. I find the whole endeavor interesting, in that, these accuracy scores provide a way to track how good or bad we are, as so-called “experts”, at being prescient. And it’s there for all the world to see, allowing all of you to find the “proof in the pudding”. Which is wonderful if it’s tapioca pudding. That being said, the whole endeavor can be nerve-racking. I’m not afraid to admit that I always have a bit of hesitancy before checking to see how I did the week prior. There’s no doubt in my mind that if my rankings made a poor showing week after week, I’d probably have to start looking for a new profession. But, worse than that, it would seem to be defeating the purpose of, at least, 10% of what this site is for, and that’s helping your fantasy team with fun, thoughtful, and engaging analysis on a daily basis. The other 90%, of course, being d*ck and fart jokes. So for every rankings post from here on out, you’ll always get my results at the top, same as the past installments, but now I’ll be including the following table that will be tracking my entire season. I may not be the top ranker out there, nor am I the worst, but I do want to be the most transparent.

	Score	Rank	Experts	Highest	Lowest	Score +/-	Rank +/-
Week 1	61.80%	22	134	66.10%	48.20%
Week 2	54.00%	35	135	61.30%	42.10%	-7.80%	-13
Week 3	57.40%	88	128	67.10%	44.30%	3.40%	-53
Week 4	56.50%	48	128	61.10%	42.80%	-0.90%	40
Week 5	56.50%	70	131	69.40%	47.00%	0.00%	-22
Totals	57.40%	25	124	60.60%	49.90%

Well, there it is, feel free to assess the landscape as it stands. Like everything else in life, yeah, I’m thinking it could definitely use more bush.

And now, your Week 6 Rankings…

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