Pause or Panic on Slow Starters

The fantasy football season is long and grueling. However, we as a community tend to ignore history’s lesson of patience after a week or two, given recency bias and a human desire to panic. Across the league, there are teams with several new faces on both sides of the ball, injuries, and players who are not in midseason form due to the lack of preseason reps (and shorter offseason).

Also, matchups matter! Several teams have played either easy schedules to start this season or difficult ones. Teams have led games by a substantial amount in the second half or trailed by a significant amount. These factors all impact how teams decide to divvy volume and play with varied levels of pace.

This piece seeks to dissect players across the league at every position who have started slow and either deserve patience or genuine panic moving forward.

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PAUSE

QB Kyler Murray (ARI)

The Arizona Cardinals are undefeated to start the season, but that is not good news for Kyler Murray’s fantasy managers! Murray is playing the role of game manager as the Cardinals entered both fourth quarters holding a double-digit lead. Fortunately, this start is only due to their light schedule thus far, with matchups against the Saints and Panthers — two of the NFL’s worst teams entering the year.

The schedule becomes more competitive in the coming weeks with matchups against the 49ers, Seahawks, Colts, Packers, and Cowboys. Even if the Cardinals hold double-digit leads in games throughout the rest of this season, they will be tested by much better offenses. Kyler Murray is notorious for making up even the worst fantasy performances in the fourth quarter with magic from his legs (although we would prefer if he at least set a floor entering the back-half of games rather than spiking for one quarter).

A similar “excuse” exists for Marvin Harrison Jr., who was fantastic in Week 1, then disappointed in Week 2. His next step will be necessary for this offense to remain competitive, and that should come if he is healthy. Between him and Trey McBride, Kyler Murray has two top weapons, along with his legs, to produce a quality fantasy season.

RB Ashton Jeanty (LV)

Better days are coming for this young star running back. The Raiders’ offense as a whole is brand new and is figuring out how to gel. Lean weeks will occur early on as this unit begins working together in real game action. Geno Smith, Ashton Jeanty, multiple rookie receivers, and the new coaching staff are easy to criticize after two weeks of inconsistent play. However, we did at least see positives in a Week 1 win against the Patriots, like Geno Smith’s execution and Brock Bowers’ continued ascent as an elite tight end.

Jeanty was drafted at his sixth-overall slot for a reason. Between his lack of production, Zamir White’s third-down role, and Dylan Laube’s presence on two-minute drills, there is a lot of online panic. Fortunately, the Raiders are not trying to overload their rookie within the first two weeks of the season. He is still on pace for 298 touches, and that pace could even jump as his role expands as a receiver in the coming weeks. Jeanty is a complete back who is struggling to find holes. He will only get better as the weeks stack and the offense works in sync.

WR A.J. Brown (PHI)

Speaking of online panic, the A.J. Brown noise is loud in the streets of Twitter/X. Philadelphia’s de facto WR1 is quiet to start this season with just 35 yards and 0 TD on nine targets. The Eagles have won both of their games this season and trailed for five combined minutes.

Jalen Hurts has thrown 45 passes, and a majority have come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. A.J. Brown can create chunk plays from anywhere on the field, but we will not see it if the Eagles do not threaten anyone with deep passes. Fortunately, the Eagles have multiple potentially competitive games before and after their Week 9 BYE. Also, A.J. Brown is familiar with starting a season slowly. He amassed just 108 yards and 0 TD on 16 targets to start the 2023 season, yet finished as a top-eight fantasy WR with 1456 yards and seven TD.

TE Brock Bowers (LV)

The case for taking a “pause” on Brock Bowers is similar to Ashton Jeanty’s. They are in a new offense that will take a few weeks to gel. However, Bowers looked fantastic in Week 1 before leaving midway due to a knee injury. He earned 103 yards and five receptions on eight targets while playing just 50.8% of the snaps. There were moments where Bowers was not on the field, but that was mainly due to fellow TE Michael Mayer’s blocking duties.

Bowers played 77.1% of the snaps in Week 2 while coming into the game questionable with the knee injury from Week 1. He did not perform well, but given his leg brace and limited practice reps throughout the week, this is not shocking. He is reportedly healthy entering Week 3 and should only improve as he gets further from the injury. Buy low on the generational receiving TE prospect who posted 112-1194-5 with Jimmy Garoppolo and Aidan O’Connell.

PANIC

QB Bo Nix (DEN)

The Denver Broncos’ offense is evolving. This team’s RBs could not run the football consistently last season. Between Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estime, the Broncos had a rotation of mediocre backs. Sean Payton made it a priority to change that with the free agent addition of J.K. Dobbins and rookie RJ Harvey.

Dobbins and Harvey have combined for 217 rushing yards and two TD on 41 attempts through two games. Box Nix was 83 yards and 47 carries from the team lead in each category last season. He is a very talented rushing QB, but Sean Payton’s priority is to keep him healthy. Sadly, this is not beneficial for fantasy purposes. 3.9 of Nix’s 19.3 fantasy points per game last season came as a rusher. If that rushing number cuts in half, he falls from QB8 in PPG to QB13. The middle range of fantasy QBs is very flat, and a better rushing offense likely means an average fantasy season for this solid but unspectacular passer.

RB Chase Brown (CIN)

The Bengals’ offense is in trouble without Joe Burrow. The most impacted is RB Chase Brown. Brown is a talented rusher and receiver, but what elevates him is a top-six QB who can extend plays, create explosive passes, and command respect from opposing defenses. The Bengals’ offensive line is not strong enough to support a strong rushing attack with a QB like Jake Browning at the helm (despite Browning performing well in his seven-start stint two years ago). Joe Mixon’s rushing efficiency in 2023 dropped from 4 yards per carry with Burrow to 3.5 with Browning during the fantasy season.

Browning is not a statue QB, but he is also not as mobile as Burrow, nor does he possess the same arm strength. He can operate this offense, but that will likely come at the cost of a slower pace and worse efficiency throughout a full season. Brown’s volume may increase for the time being, but then he will not only deal with efficiency attrition but also added injury risk as his plays will likely end more often within the trenches.

Chase Brown’s season has already begun on a sour note, and it could slowly wither if the Bengals skid. His ceiling is reliant on targets moving forward. The six through two games will not cut it.

WR Xavier Worthy (KC)

Travis Kelce may have ended Worthy’s season just like Patrick Mahomes inadvertently ended Rashee Rice’s in 2024. This run of bad luck is almost unheard of and deserves a voodoo cleanse for the twilight of this Chiefs’ era. Worthy has somehow returned to practice in full and is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Giants. The reports of his injury at the time were cautiously optimistic, but a truth bomb was dropped last week with the report of his labrum tearing in full.

Worthy torn labrum is a massive issue. His shoulder is unstable moving forward, and another dislocation could cause enough pain to result in season-ending surgery. The only good news is that he cannot tear his labrum any further…

Sell Worthy for anything if you can, given this update. This is a ticking time bomb.

TE David Njoku (CLE)

The Browns have kicked Njoku to the curb as their receiving TE1 due to the addition of rookie Harold Fannin Jr. Fannin Jr.’s stock dropped in the offseason after his poor athletic numbers. However, his college production is translating more than any testing. Fannin Jr. posted 117 receptions, 1555 yards, and 11 total TD in his final (Junior) college season at Bowling Green. He has 111 yards and 12 receptions through his first two NFL games and looks like the team’s best receiving option moving forward.

David Njoku is still an effective TE, but his services are better in the trenches, where his size allows him to operate as a blocker better. Fannin Jr. is siphoning valuable routes from all other positions, like the slot and even the backfield. Njoku should have quality fantasy weeks this season, but they will be few and far between unless a trade manifests.

If any questions or concerns arise, feel free to contact me (@RotoSurgeon) on Twitter/X.