Today I’ll be taking you through my redraft quarterback rankings. These are primarily set up for a 1QB league, but I will comment on situations where Superflex would cause a major difference in position. I finished last season as the most accurate Quarterback ranker on FantasyPros, so I hope that you can use these rankings with confidence. You can find my full rankings, including dynasty, at ffdfantasyfootball.com. I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments, but you can also hit me up on Instagram @thefantasyfirstdown, where I answer all questions.
To make things a little easier, I’ve broken things up into tiers, grouping players who are, in my opinion, close in value. Where you actually draft these players in drafts really depends on your specific league settings, so I won’t be covering that here. Also, note that these rankings are for 4-point passing TDs. Running QBs drop a little if your league values passing TDs more.
Tier 1: The Elite Options:
There’s a clear top three this year, with Josh Allen only just leading the way for me, but all three have minor concerns, which means I wouldn’t be reaching for any above the others. Allen’s risk factor is in his legs. While the Bills QB is a great passer, his fantasy value comes primarily from his running. A reduction in rushing yardage could easily lead to a two- to three-point drop per game. While this would protect him a little and is no doubt Buffalo’s primary motivation for pushing this change, the fantasy impact will be more concerning than the on-field impact for his team.
Jalen Hurts falls into the same category. A drop in rushing volume or a reduction in red zone usage would really hurt his fantasy output, as the signing of Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift could easily mean more RB touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes is a different story, and I would have him as my QB1, but his pass-catching corps is ugly. He has no clear WR1, and while the ageless Travis Kelce will no-doubt lead the way again, none of Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Rashee Rice and Skyy Moore profile as a true threat, and that could really hurt the effectiveness of this offense.
Tier 2: The Next Best
It’s a bit tough on Joe Burrow, leaving him out of the top tier after another exceptional season. The Bengals’ offense remains one of the best in the NFL with quality pass-catchers and a truly top-tier passer, so there’s limited risk, but Burrow does lack the rushing output of the top options and the passing volume of Mahomes. He’s the clear QB4, though. Justin Fields has more upside than any other in this tier. With a vastly improved supporting cast, he could afford to drop 500 yards in rushing and still run more than any other QB.
His passing should improve in his third year, too, and we know there will be more points to go around in an offense expected to improve significantly. Lamar Jackson is perennially injured and still struggles with his passing at times. While his rushing upside is elite, the move to Todd Monken as OC could hinder his fantasy scoring with an increasing emphasis on passing rather than designed runs. Trevor Lawrence falls into the potential boom category as an underrated passer with rushing upside and a strong supporting cast.
It remains to be seen whether he can take the next big step up in Year 3 or if he falls back to being a lower QB1. Justin Herbert saw that exact fall last year, but it’s hard to imagine the Chargers WR group is as banged up as it was last year, especially with the drafting of Quentin Johnston. Herbert’s low rushing numbers are why he’s not higher for me.
Tier 3: The Best of the Rest (at least there’s upside!)
I can’t say I love any of these options, but I can see the upside. With Ezekiel Elliott out of town, it’s easy to imagine the Cowboys leaning more heavily on their passing game, so Dak is a fine late-rounder. Daniel Jones was the QB9 last year, primarily thanks to his 708 yards on the ground. With more pass catching options and the excellent Brian Daboll behind him, it’s easy to see another step up in 2023.
Deshaun Watson was awful in his return last year, but a full pre-season of preparation and the addition of Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman should see another solid fantasy finish for the former Texan. He probably has the most upside of everyone in this tier, but significant risk too.
Tier 4: The ‘Hope This Works Out’ Group
- Kirk Cousins (MIN)
- Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
- Russell Wilson (DEN)
- Geno Smith (SEA)
- Jared Goff (DET)
- Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)
- Derek Carr (NO)
By this stage, in 1QB leagues, you’re just throwing things at the wall, hoping something sticks. Kirk Cousins has been a QB9-13 each of the last five seasons, and replacing Adam Thielen with Jordan Addison shouldn’t hurt much, but the lack of rushing floor makes him very TD-reliant. Tua Tagovailoa would be far higher if he were healthy. This offense is explosive, and Tua is a massively talented passer. His lack of rushing usage hurts a little, but the upside is here for sure.
Russell Wilson, on the other hand, can still move well, but his passing took a massive drop-off last season. Can Sean Peyton stimulate a bounce-back season? He has a long history of fantasy productivity from Drew Brees, so it’s entirely possible with a strong WR room. Geno Smith and Jared Goff were surprisingly good last year, with Geno the QB5 and Goff the QB10. Both have improved passing options and are on teams challenging for the Super Bowl.
The upside is certainly there, but there’s a far lower floor than with most of the other options in this tier. I know I’ll cop flack for this, but Aaron Rodgers just feels a bit washed to me. I don’t really understand what the Jets are doing here. They have elite players at every position and a temperamental 40-year-old running the ship. It’s a really odd choice that I just can’t get behind.
The upside is there if it works out, but with the lack of rushing floor, I’d rather search for upside elsewhere. Finally, Derek Carr is consistently mediocre as a middling QB2. The upside isn’t really there, but with Chris Olave and Michael Thomas to work with, another solid season is easy to imagine, and I favor him a little more in superflex leagues for his safety.
Tier 5: Guys we just hope keep the job
- Sam Howell (WAS)
- Matthew Stafford (LAR)
- Kenny Pickett (PIT)
- Jordan Love (GB)
- Bryce Young (CAR)
- Brock Purdy (SF)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (LV)
- Anthony Richardson (IND)
- Desmond Ridder (ATL)
- Mac Jones (NE)
- Ryan Tannehill (TEN)
- CJ Stroud (HOU)
- Kyler Murray (ARI)
Frankly, if you’re drafting one of these players, you’re either in a very deep league or Superflex, so I’ve taken that into account in these rankings. Players like Sam Howell, Brock Purdy, Jimmy Garoppolo and Anthony Richardson are the only players with true upside in this group, so I’ll focus on them for 1QB leagues. Howell is far from locked into the starting role, but with three strong receivers and an offense with scoring upside, the aggressive passer has sneaky QB1 upside.
Purdy has shown he can be a fantasy starter, though his health to start to the season is a big question mark, making him an unnecessarily risky pick-up when his upside is somewhat limited. Garoppolo would similarly be a mid-QB2 if not for his injury. If he gets cleared, he’s a solid bench option in a passing attack highlighted by Davante Adams. Without that injury clearance, he’s better left on 1QB waivers. Richardson is the most interesting option. As my earlier article showed, rookie quarterbacks are highly unlikely to be a QB1 in their rookie season.
This issue is exacerbated for the young Colt as he hasn’t even won the starting job over Gardner Minshew. While that may seem inevitable, AR is a very raw prospect and could easily need a full season before he’s ready for the rigors of NFL football, despite positive pre-season reports. If he’s there in the late rounds of drafts, he’s a fine bench stash if you’re desperate for upside, but I’d rather gamble elsewhere, knowing that Richardson will likely end up on waivers or wasting someone else’s bench spot.
Tier 6: Other players relevant in 2QB
- Baker Mayfield (TB)
- Colt McCoy (ARI)
- Gardner Minshew (IND)
- Trey Lance (SF)
- Jacoby Brissett (WAS)
- Kyle Trask (TB)
- Bailey Zappe (NE)
- Taylor Heinicke (ATL)
- Will Levis (TEN)
In 2+QB leagues, sometimes you need to draft and bench a QB who just might have a starting role this season. These are the main options for that role. Colt McCoy is at least locked into a starting job for a while, though his chances of being anything more than a fantasy QB3 are very low. Baker Mayfield is similarly unlikely to be a fantasy star, plus his role is far from locked in with Kyle Trask waiting in the wings. The others are all long-shots who should only be rostered in the deepest of redraft leagues.
Next week I’ll be back with a breakdown of my running back rankings. Remember to check out my full rankings for all positions at ffdfantasyfootball.com