Finding value on draft day is one of the goals each of us experience in fantasy football drafts. If you follow me on the baseball side of Razzball, you know that I go through an exercise each Spring where I assimilate projections and compare to ADP to identify value (and non-value) outliers. I’m bring that same method to football today to identify QB value.
Here’s the recipe: First you need a good base to build on. I use Rudy Gamble’s 2024 projections, and frankly I suggest you do too. Bottom line, Rudy is regarded as one of the brightest minds in the fantasy world, regularly scoring very high among industry experts in accuracy for both baseball and football. The best part for you and me, his projections are available for free on the Razzball football site. See for yourself HERE.
Not that it matters for QBs, but I use the PPR scoring column for this analysis. The focus of this article is QBs, but I may venture into drafting a “best value” team in the coming days. Therefore for consistency, I’ll just use PPR projections for everything I do. It is my favorite format as well, but that’s a discussion for another day.
With those rankings in hand, I next incorporate consensus ADP. You guessed it, Razzball has you covered here for free too. We take the rolling ADPs from the popular sites and develop a consensus. You can access those HERE.
From there, it’s just a little spreadsheet fun to develop the visual product that puts it all into perspective. This is how it looks:
OK, I hear you: “Hey Lineup Builder, what exactly is this chart telling us?” Great question.
The yellow dots represent player rankings based on their projected PPR scoring. The blue dots represent the consensus ADP for those players. Summarizing to make it easy:
- Blue dot above the line – good.
- Blue dot below the line – not good.
To find best value, we want to focus on the players above the line. The higher the better.
So, who are projected as the best QB values right now? Let’s find out.
NOTE: The average draft position (ADP) below represents the current Razzball consensus ADP this preseason.
Quarterback Draft Values
- Player: Trevor Lawrence
- Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
- QB ADP Ranking (consensus ADP): QB 16 (125.5)
Jaguars QB, Trevor Lawrence, comes in as the best “value” with a scoring delta of +6. That means, he’s being drafted as the QB16 but projected to rank as QB10 based on Rudy’s projections. Lawrence is currently being drafted at pick 125.5, putting him in the 11th round in 12-team leagues. If you’re drafting him there, he’s most likely being drafted as your backup QB. Wouldn’t you want to have a backup QB that has upside of a QB10? I would! That suggests high value.
- Player: Baker Mayfield
- Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- QB ADP Ranking (consensus ADP): QB 22 (154.4)
Bucs QB, Baker Mayfield, also comes in with a best “value” scoring of +6. Again, that means he’s being drafted as the QB22 but projected to rank as QB16 based on the projections. He’s being drafted even later at pick 154.4, putting him in the 13th round in 12-team drafts. Similar to Lawrence, he’s only going to be on your radar as a backup QB (or QB2 in superFlex leagues). Unlike Lawrence though, you can wait two rounds later and sacrifice only 1.5 fantasy points per game based on projections.
- Player: Dak Prescott
- Team: Dallas Cowboys
- QB ADP Ranking (consensus ADP): QB 9 (78.2)
We’ve covered a pair of fantasy backups, so let’s end this discussion with a projected starting QB. Cowboys QB, Dak Prescott, comes in 3rd in value with a scoring delta of +5. In his case, Dak is being drafted as the QB9 but projected to rank as QB4 based on his projections. Dak is being drafted at pick 78.2 on average, or mid-7th round. Mid 7th round for a projected top five fantasy scoring QB? Sure, I’ll take some of that value. In fact, pair Dak with Lawrence or Mayfield (no BYE week conflicts here so pick either) and you have a QB room filled with fantasy value.
Quarterback Draft Non-Values
- Player: Anthony Richardson
- Team: Indianapolis Colts
- QB ADP Ranking (consensus ADP): QB 6 (55.3)
This isn’t going to be a popular take, but I’m here for it. Colts QB, Anthony Richardson (AR), comes in as the worst value QB with a scoring delta of -9. AR is being drafted as the QB6 but projected to rank as QB15. Some are predicting AR to be in the MVP contest. If that is you, ignore this whole section and be you! However, I’m here to tell you the projections disagree with that take.
A quick side bar on projections. The way I see it, if you put your faith in (and agree with) projections for one player, you shouldn’t completely discard them for another player when you don’t like the result. We certainly don’t have to follow them blindly but it’s important to pay attention to what they are suggesting. If that simply means you diversify in your drafts and pass on someone like AR once in a while, that’s okay too.
Back to AR. He’s being drafted at pick 55.3 on average, or 5th round, and projected to finish as QB15 with a total of 291.1 fantasy points. To put that in perspective, Dak’s projected point total is 338.5. So, the data suggests you pass on AR in round 5 and consider Dak in round 7. Try this build in your mock drafts and see which RBs or WRs you end up with in the 5th by waiting for QB until the 7th. Do you like that team better?
Other “Non-Value” QBs
I won’t go through them all here, but I will note some other “non-value” QBs from this exercise.
As our loyal Razzball readers know well, we’re all about providing tools and information to help you make those critical roster decisions. This exercise provides another way to look at the data and thus, another tool for your fantasy toolbox. Will it guarantee you’ll draft the right QB or they will win you a Championship? No, of course not. But knowledge is power. So, the more you have, the more likely you’ll be to not make mistakes. That’s what I’m going with anyway!
Let me know your thoughts below. Also, continue to follow all our fantastic Razzball writers and podcasters throughout draft season and after the bell. Speaking of the regular season, don’t forget our premier live show returns soon. Right up to gametime each week, join @BobbyLamarco, @SkyGuasco, @Stiles08 and myself on our Sunday Start/Sit show. We answer all your pressing fantasy football questions and give you the latest news to win your matchups. Don’t miss it.
Look for me all season here (football.razzball.com), Twitter/X (@Derek_Favret) and now Reddit (u/Lineup_Builder). I strive for 100% response so know your questions or suggestions won’t be ignored. Good luck in all your drafts.
Until next time, my friends.