At What Age Should You Fade A Running Back in Fantasy?

The previous intro worked so well for the wide receiver age analysis article we decided to use it again.

Whether it is dynasty or redraft understanding when the cliff typically comes for a fantasy asset is key to staying ahead of the game. What we did was review the last 10 seasons of running back production by age to see when the drop off comes for the position. A couple key nuggets that you need to know before we get started.

The years sampled were 2011-2020 for the running back position only
The analysis benchmark we will be discussing today is 100 touches. Every running back ages 21-37 had to have at least 100 touches to qualify
The points and points per game (PPG) are in half point (.5) points per reception (PPR)
When conducting the analysis, it was important to have a baseline for touches as many players who don’t make it typically only play 3-4 years in their early 20s. That means if you don’t have a touch baseline in the analysis then you’re including a lot of young running backs who don’t pan out. This would prevent us from getting a better idea of how age becomes a factor since we want to identify the running backs who were able to sustain some level of relevance throughout the years

Like we always promise we will give you the high-level data first and you can take it for what it is worth. The first chart will include the running backs (RB) age, the average total fantasy points those running backs had at that age and the average points per game (PPG) those running backs had at that age. If you want a deeper dive, we have included more information later.

Reviewing Points and Points Per Game (PPG)

RB AGE	Avg. Total Fantasy Points	Avg. PPG
21	156.2	11.3
22	138	10.4
23	145.4	10.8
24	143.8	11.1
25	149.4	11.5
26	151.9	11.0
27	136.9	10.3
28	147.1	10.5
29	133.1	10.4
30	144.8	10.8
31	106.6	8.6
32	103.4	8.3
33	136.0	9.6
34	124.3	8.0
35	107.8	7.2
36	88.4	5.5
37	94.2	6.3
Grand Total	141.8	10.6

WOW unlike wide receivers the cliff is real for running backs after age 30. The surprising part is that age 30 isn’t the cutoff, but age 31 certainly is for the running back position. After age 30 running backs between ages 31-34 see roughly a 25% drop-off from running backs at their peak PPG and total points. Interestingly the peaks for PPG and total points come at different times for running backs. On a total points basis the running back peak is at the rip old age of 21 with 156.2. However, the PPG peak doesn’t come until four years later at 25 at 11.5. Overall, the running back prime runs smoothly through age 26 as running backs at that age see just over 150 points and 11 PPG on average.

The next age bracket is age 27-30. At first the drop-off looks steep as we see roughly a 10% drop-off from age 26 to 27 in total points and just over 6% dip in PPG. The good news is the drop-off doesn’t continue as the total points and PPG stabilize. On average total points goes from 147 to 140 and PPG drops from 11 to 10.5. These drop-offs for age 27-30 is roughly 5% less than the PPG and total points we see in the 21-26 bracket.

Notable “Aging” Running Backs (27-30)

Player	Team	Age At The Beginning Of 2021 Season	2020 PPG Rank**	2021 RB ADP***	ADP +/-
David Johnson	HST	29	15	43	-28
Raheem Mostert	SF	29	27	29	-2
Melvin Gordon	DEN	28	22	36	-14
Mike Davis	CAR	28	20	22	-2
J.D. McKissic	WAS	28	33	49	-16
Derrick Henry	TEN	27	4	3	1
Kenyan Drake	ARZ	27	26	41	-15
Todd Gurley	ATL	27	31	70	-39
Chris Carson	SEA	27	13	18	-5
Wayne Gallman*	NYG	27	36	66	-30

*Wayne Gallman turns 27 in October

** PPG Rank in .5 PPR (Min 3 Games….yes we wanted to include CMC)

***2021 UnderDog ADP https://www.4for4.com/underdog-adp

The Details

Running Back (RB) Age – The age of the running back during the season
Number (#) of Running Backs (RBs)– This is the total number of running backs that played at that age over the past 10 seasons
Number (#) of Games Played – The average number of games a running back played during the season at that age
Total Touches – This column represents the average number of total touches a running back had the year they played at that age
Touches Per Game – This column represents how many touches per game a running back at that age had on average that season

RB AGE	# of RBs	# of Games Played	Total Touches	Touches Per Game
21	19	13.7	199.6	14.6
22	63	13.4	188.3	14.2
23	80	13.3	189.4	14.3
24	84	13.0	185.1	14.4
25	81	12.9	193.2	15.0
26	63	13.7	202.6	14.7
27	59	13.2	185.1	14.1
28	46	13.7	192.5	13.9
29	39	13.2	182.2	14.3
30	23	13.3	201.3	15.2
31	12	11.7	169.4	14.3
32	13	11.9	149.4	12.7
33	6	14.3	199.8	13.8
34	3	15.7	213.0	13.6
35	2	15.0	167.5	11.2
36	1	16.0	179.0	11.2
37	1	15.0	203.0	13.5

Final Notes

The biggest surprise from this analysis is the success of age 33 running backs. Of the 6 running backs in the sample that hit the criteria of 100 touches 4 produced double-digit fantasy points per game. We should chalk this up to being an outlier as only some of the most elite players like Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson are on this list.

In conclusion this article isn’t saying you should go out of your way to draft older running backs. However, what we are saying is if a running back ages 27-30 earns a starting job or you hear camp reports of him being the lead back then you shouldn’t be drafting him rounds after where he performed in years prior.

Sources: Razzball.com, Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, Football Outsiders and FFToday.com