Another week in the books and another week of devastating injuries. Thankfully, for this column anyway, the worst of it skipped the RB position. Still, it was still brutal.
This week, the Zone vs. Gap data is drawing from Weeks 1 – 4, so we now have good data to analyze. In fact, I’ve got a bonus for you below. Don’t skip there now, we’ll be there soon enough. I’ve got some good information in between that you don’t want to miss.
As always, you can view the Defensive Zone vs. Gap splits HERE and the RB Zone vs. Gap splits HERE. I’ll add the former table to the bottom of this article. For RB-specific numbers, go to the tool. Remember, it’s FREE!
Also, if you want a short refresher (or tutorial, if you’re new to this tool) on the table, simply go back to my previous article HERE.
Before we get to Week 5, another quick message from our sponsor and a quick review of Week 4 analysis:
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Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool | DEF Zone vs. Gap Rushing | RB Zone vs. Gap Rushing |
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Review of Week 4 Analysis
Zone Matchups:
- Pittsburgh (vs. Minnesota):
- Analysis: “The Vikings are giving up 65% of their rushing yards to Zone blocking. Jaylen Warren (65% Zone) is no Bijan and I’m not saying he’s going to blow up, but he stands to have a decent rushing day in Dublin.”
- Result: We know that Jaylen Warren was a late scratch so the bulk of the RB work fell to Kenenth Gainwell, who split his carries between Zone (53%) and Gap (47%) for 99 yards.
- Seattle (vs. Arizona):
- Analysis: “Here’s another Zone frequent flyer. Seattle loves Zone rushing (61%) and the Cardinals rank 26th (54% Zone) in the league. Kenneth Walker III (56% Zone) gets his running mate, Zach Charbonnet (78% Zone), back this week too.”
- Result: Walker (Zone – 53%, Gap – 47%) and Charbonnet (Zone – 75%, Gap – 25%) combined for 120 yards.
Gap Matchups:
- Tennessee (vs. Houston):
- Analysis: “The Titans offense ranks 23rd in Zone rushing (40%) but Houston is ranked 2nd best in limiting Zone yardage (24.5 yards per game). Tony Pollard’s numbers are 53% Zone and 40% Gap. I hope the Titans analytics department is paying attention…LESS ZONE BLOCKING AND MORE GAP BLOCKING!” , and
- “It’s really hard to find good Gap matchups so I’ll reach for another one here. Tennessee runs behind Gap blocking almost as much as behind Zone blocking. Tony Pollard is essentially doing all the work here. The Texans are ranked 31st and allowing over 53% of rushing yards to Gap blocking. That is significant only because they’re allowing about half as much to Zone blocking schemes.”
- Result: Well, the Titans analytics department listened. Pollard rushed behind Gap blocking 71% of the time and logged 4.6 yards per carry. Unfortunately, that was about the only stat for the Titans to hang their hat on Sunday.
- Washington (vs. Atlanta):
- Analysis: “Although it’s the #1 matchup on paper based on Gap rushing percentage, I’m in avoid mode here. The Commanders offense rush behind Gap blocking 53% of designed rushes and the Falcons defense is allowing 45% (versus just 23% to Zone) of designed rushing yards to Gap. That said, the uncertainty of the Commanders’ backfield, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt (86% Gap), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (73% Gap), and Jeremy McNichols (63% Gap) all taking carries makes me leery to make a recommendation. The numbers suggest there’s potential as a team, but who do we trust individually?”
- Result: Here’s the breakdown, Croskey-Merritt (43% Gap), Rodriguez Jr. (71% Gap), and McNichols (50% Gap). As a team, that came out to 56% Gap. Both Croskey-Merritt and Rodriguez Jr received 7 rushing attempts. Based on the information from our tool, is it a coincidence that Croskey-Merritt averaged 6.7 yards per carry and Rodriguez Jr. averaged 8.4 yards per carry?
Once again, the Zone vs. Gap tool performed some work last week. Let’s see what this week has in store.
Week 5 Matchups
Zone Matchups
- The top two Zone matchups include every week starters. The 49ers (#1 ranked Zone Offense) and Christian McCaffrey (77% Zone) draw the Rams (#2 ranked Zone Defense). Coming in close behind, the Raiders (#2 ranked Zone Offense) and Ashton Jeanty (66% Zone) match up with the Colts (#23 ranked Zone Defense). I don’t need to say any more here to convince you to start both.
- Another RB Zone matchup I like this week is the Jets (#4 ranked Zone Offense) vs. the Cowboys (#19 ranked Zone Defense). With Braelon Allen set to miss multiple weeks, the Jets will need to lean on Breece Hall (85% Zone) to control the clock and keep the Cowboys offense off the field.
- A Zone matchup I’m a little cautious on is the Colts (#18 ranked Zone offense) vs. the Raiders (#5 ranked Zone defense). To be clear, I’m not suggesting you sit Jonathan Taylor (51% Zone), just don’t go in expecting a huge game. To close the loop on this, the Raiders Defense is about league-average vs. Gap rushing so they’re no slouches there either.
Gap Matchups
- Arizona (#1 ranked Gap Offense) draws the best matchup of the week against the Titans (28th ranked Gap Defense). Will Trey Benson (69% Gap) be healthy enough to take advantage or will it be Emari Demercado (50% Gap – in very limited action)?
- In a similar RB situation, Tampa Bay (#2 ranked Gap Offense) draws a nice matchup against the Seahawks (#18 ranked Zone Defense). Bucky Irving (68% Gap) is hobbling around mid-week in a walking boot, so will Rachaad White (48% Gap) or Sean Tucker (too few carries) be the beneficiary?
- Here’s one I really like. The Texans (#6 ranked Gap Offense) and Woody Marks (59% Gap) take on the wounded Ravens (#21 ranked Gap Defense). In four weeks, the snap share has completely shifted to favor Marks (4:3). I expect this to be closer to 2:1 after this game.
- On the flip side, I’m hesitant to rank Travis Etienne Jr. (46% Gap, 48% Zone) too high in the RB ranks. With half of his production against the #1 Gap ranked Chiefs Defense, we shouldn’t be surprised if he come back down to earth after last week’s 124 yards and TD performance.
- One more Gap matchup that concerns me. The Patriots RB duo of Rhamondre Stevenson (65% Gap) and TreVeyon Henderson (58% Gap) draw the 5th best Defense against Gap rushing in the Bills. The Patriots will want to keep Josh Allen off the field as much as possible so this rushing matchup may likely dictate the game.
That’s All Folks
Gotcha! You think I forgot the bonus material, didn’t you? Nope, here it is.
Now that we have four weeks of good data to base our analysis on, we can start looking ahead. This table ranks the top rushing offenses to target for their next four opponents.
| Offense | Rank Next 4 | Next 4 |
|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 115.2 |
| CAR | 2 | 109.8 |
| BLT | 3 | 107.9 |
| GB | 4 | 106.8 |
| CHI | 5 | 105.4 |
| NYJ | 6 | 105.3 |
| ATL | 7 | 104.2 |
| DEN | 8 | 104.1 |
| NE | 9 | 103.4 |
| WAS | 10 | 102.8 |
| CLV | 11 | 99.6 |
| NO | 12 | 99.3 |
| LV | 13 | 98.4 |
| LAC | 13 | 98.4 |
| DET | 15 | 97.6 |
| NYG | 16 | 97.6 |
| DAL | 17 | 97.1 |
| HST | 18 | 96.4 |
| LA | 19 | 95.3 |
| IND | 20 | 92.4 |
| ARZ | 21 | 90.4 |
| BUF | 22 | 89.1 |
| CIN | 23 | 88.3 |
| TB | 24 | 87.4 |
| JAX | 25 | 85.8 |
| PIT | 26 | 85.4 |
| MIA | 27 | 83.7 |
| TEN | 28 | 80.4 |
| MIN | 29 | 79.9 |
| KC | 30 | 78.7 |
| SF | 31 | 76.2 |
| SEA | 32 | 71.4 |
NOTE: I’ll keep moving this forward as we go and in the coming weeks, I’ll also start posting the matchups over the fantasy playoff weeks (Weeks 15-17). Remember, it’s all about winning the crown!
Now I’m Done!
I hope you’re coming around on this new tool. I keep showing you the value, not to pat ourselves on the back, but to share the good information it provides. I hope you find it useful too.
Don’t just stop here with me, all of the RazzballNFL staff is here to help. Be sure to read our daily articles and especially join us on gameday morning for the Razzball Sunday Start/Sit show. We had another great turnout last Sunday with excellent (i.e., tough) lineup questions to talk through. Keep bringing it!
As always, the show airs LIVE on the Razzball YouTube channel this Sunday from 11:00 am EDT (8:00 PDT) right up right up to gametime. Sky – @SkyGuasco, Matt – @Stiles08, Dave – @Crewser128, Jeff – @Jefferson__21 and I will be there to answer all your fantasy football questions. Don’t miss it.
As always, look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret. I’m also on BlueSky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends.
| Download Table as CSV | |||
| Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output | |||
| # | Team | Def_Designed Rush Yds/Gm | Def Zone Yds/Gm | Def Gap Yds/Gm | Def Zone% | Def Gap% | Def Undesigned Scr Yds/Gm | Next Opponent | Off Rush Yds/Gm | Off Zone% | Off Gap% | Off Scr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARZ | 133 | 74.1 | 53.7 | 54% | 40% | 0 | HST | 83 | 40% | 53% | 2% | |
| ATL | 101 | 27.8 | 69.3 | 38% | 57% | 0 | TB | 105 | 49% | 47% | 0% | |
| BLT | 71 | 33.4 | 35.3 | 53% | 44% | 0 | CIN | 100 | 48% | 45% | 1% | |
| BUF | 102 | 49.0 | 45.3 | 49% | 43% | 0 | NE | 101 | 29% | 61% | 4% | |
| CAR | 142 | 85.3 | 51.2 | 61% | 36% | 0 | NO | 56 | 74% | 21% | 4% | |
| CHI | 93 | 54.6 | 34.0 | 64% | 32% | 0 | CLV | 64 | 53% | 43% | 1% | |
| CIN | 133 | 64.0 | 54.5 | 50% | 42% | 0 | BLT | 119 | 62% | 31% | 1% | |
| CLV | 110 | 54.5 | 43.7 | 53% | 36% | 0 | CHI | 145 | 65% | 31% | 2% | |
| DAL | 81 | 29.9 | 44.4 | 41% | 47% | 0 | MIN | 100 | 46% | 48% | 1% | |
| DEN | 63 | 27.6 | 29.3 | 45% | 44% | 0 | GB | 98 | 56% | 41% | 0% | |
| DET | 97 | 53.9 | 35.3 | 57% | 37% | 0 | LA | 146 | 48% | 50% | 0% | |
| GB | 111 | 60.8 | 46.0 | 54% | 42% | 0 | DEN | 95 | 32% | 60% | 1% | |
| HST | 74 | 36.0 | 32.6 | 47% | 45% | 0 | ARZ | 65 | 28% | 70% | 1% | |
| IND | 96 | 53.0 | 35.1 | 53% | 39% | 0 | SEA | 116 | 58% | 40% | 0% | |
| JAX | 59 | 26.3 | 29.9 | 43% | 51% | 0 | NYJ | 93 | 63% | 31% | 2% | |
| KC | 79 | 42.7 | 31.1 | 54% | 40% | 0 | LAC | 104 | 45% | 44% | 4% | |
| LV | 120 | 53.2 | 55.9 | 45% | 47% | 0 | PHI | 112 | 51% | 40% | 1% | |
| LA | 77 | 48.2 | 29.2 | 60% | 40% | 0 | DET | 131 | 58% | 40% | 0% | |
| LAC | 89 | 54.7 | 30.1 | 62% | 33% | 0 | KC | 81 | 60% | 31% | 3% | |
| MIA | 79 | 50.6 | 23.3 | 66% | 28% | 0 | PIT | 76 | 62% | 34% | 1% | |
| MIN | 102 | 58.8 | 40.0 | 58% | 39% | 0 | DAL | 95 | 62% | 29% | 5% | |
| NE | 75 | 45.2 | 26.6 | 57% | 38% | 0 | BUF | 114 | 45% | 50% | 1% | |
| NO | 122 | 65.0 | 52.5 | 53% | 44% | 0 | CAR | 97 | 47% | 47% | 2% | |
| NYG | 159 | 68.2 | 73.5 | 45% | 46% | 0 | WAS | 87 | 42% | 52% | 6% | |
| NYJ | 127 | 77.2 | 42.3 | 57% | 38% | 0 | JAX | 102 | 50% | 43% | 2% | |
| PHI | 111 | 73.7 | 36.0 | 59% | 39% | 0 | LV | 40 | 49% | 36% | 2% | |
| PIT | 117 | 66.4 | 43.5 | 56% | 36% | 0 | MIA | 159 | 54% | 41% | 1% | |
| SEA | 86 | 40.8 | 40.0 | 47% | 49% | 0 | IND | 114 | 46% | 49% | 2% | |
| SF | 91 | 36.9 | 39.8 | 37% | 49% | 0 | TEN | 80 | 42% | 46% | 2% | |
| TB | 79 | 39.1 | 38.1 | 50% | 44% | 0 | ATL | 117 | 76% | 19% | 2% | |
| TEN | 81 | 38.7 | 35.2 | 47% | 45% | 0 | SF | 95 | 57% | 31% | 4% | |
| WAS | 129 | 62.3 | 58.8 | 47% | 47% | 0 | NYG | 95 | 52% | 38% | 4% | |
| NFL | 100 | 51.6 | 41.7 | 52% | 42% | 0 | NFL | 99 | 52% | 42% | 2% |
