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A long time ago (about a year) in a galaxy (Razzball) far, far way…

Guess who’s back, back again. The Stats Machine’s back, tell a friend. Guess who’s back. Guess who’s back. Guess who’s back. Guess who’s back. Unlike most sequels that barely measure up to the original, the first two Godfather movies excluded, the second coming of the Stats Machine looks to build on a successful model, expanding and even deepening an already superb, numbers-driven effort. For those whom are unaware of, or need a refresher on the origin of the Stats Machine (TSM), you can find that here.

Take me on in the Razzball Commenter Leagues here!

The goal of TSM was to look beyond the points. To examine the stats that contribute to the stats that result in points. And for the most part, it did just that. But as I looked at the algorithm within, I realized that there was a variable, a very important variable, that was unaccounted for. Defense. The strength of the opposing defense to be more precise. In the first iteration of TSM if Player A rushed for 100 yards against Seattle’s defense and Player B rushed for 100 yards against the much weaker Jacksonville defense, both players were rewarded equally. That is a flaw. Flaws must be removed from the system.

The following changes have been implemented. The opposing defense is now factored into the equation. Each week TSM will use year-to-date defensive rankings in the following three key categories to adjust each offensive player’s performance. Those categories are against the rush, against the pass, and against receiving. Running backs will be adjusted based on the strength of how well the defense they faced that week was at stopping the rush. Wide receivers and tight ends will be compared against the opposing defense’s ability to shut down pass catcher.

Here’s a simple example. If Matt Forte rushes for 100 yards against the top defense against the rush, he will receive 10 points for that effort. If during the same week LeSean McCoy rushes for 100 yards against the defense that gives up the most rushing yards in the league, he will only get 5 points. Everything else is in between. McCoy would need to rush for 200 yards that week to equal Forte’s 10-point effort. Of course, rushing yards are not the only factor in calculating a player’s final score.

But that’s not all Version 2.0 of The Stats Machine has been retrofitted with. This year TSM will also include quarterback analysis. I mean, why not? And following suit, quarterback scores will be adjusted based on the opposing team’s defensive ability against the pass. TSM now also includes rankings/calculations for both PPR and standard scoring for running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. And lastly, the existing formulas for PPR have been enhanced. If that’s not enough of an upgrade, then perhaps you need to lower your expectations.

In the meantime, I have taken last season’s stats and fed them into the new and improved Stats Machine to see how the defensive adjustments would shake out. However, there is one key difference in this exercise that I need to point out. When I did this I used end-of-season defensive rankings to make my adjustments. What that means is if Detroit finished the season as the best defense against the run I used that ranking against running backs for every week of the season. This is not precise because in week 2 they might have been the 10th ranked rush defense. It was just too much work for me to go back and figure out all of the defensive ranking for all 17 weeks. This will be done for the 2015 season, however, since it will be calculated each week individually.

With that disclaimer out of the way, let’s take a look at what TSM had to say about last season. Please note that TSM will also still include the non defense adjusted scores for each player (SPG).


Quarterbacks

According to The Stats Machine Peyton Manning was the top QB in 2014 with a per game score of 88.68. After Manning comes Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Tom Brady. That sounds about right to me. Who comes next might come as a bit of a surprise. That would be Ryan Tannehill. It surprised me. After Tannehill comes Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees. Drew Brees ranked 9th??? Yep. But remember, TSM does more than just look for the best fantasy player. However I’d like to point out that the gap between Rodgers (82.938) and Russell Wilson (79.5) is very close.

As for TSM’s pick for the worst performing QB (minimum 13 games), that honor is given to Brian Hoyer (49.643). 13 interceptions, 12 touchdowns. Good luck this season Texans. Perhaps Glass Joe, I mean Geno Smith, taking one on the chin wasn’t such a bad thing for the Jets. TSM had Smith (54.357) as the next worst QB. However Ryan Fitzpatrick (57.417) isn’t much higher up on the list.

Don’t underestimate the value of Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger.

Table column header explanations:

“Score” is a player’s base score
“Adjusted” is a player’s defense adjusted score
“ASPG” is a player’s adjusted score per game
“SPG” is a player’s non-adjusted score per game

PlayerScoreAdjustedASPGSPGFPTS
Peyton Manning838.3141988.68852.394308.68
Aaron Rodgers882.1132782.93855.131352.14
Andrew Luck926.5130181.31357.906351.74
Tom Brady768.2129080.62548.013278.06
Ryan Tannehill789.1128980.56349.319278.9
Russell Wilson824.4127279.551.525325.9
Philip Rivers758.8125878.62547.425265.64
Ben Roethlisberger848.7122476.553.044300.78
Drew Brees867.6121075.62554.225302.88
Carson Palmer289.744974.83348.283103.54
Jay Cutler714.2110373.53347.613247.58
Kyle Orton518.986171.7543.242174.12
Matt Ryan816.4112570.31351.025282.26
Alex Smith624.3103769.13341.62220
Matthew Stafford730.3108267.62545.644249.58
Colin Kaepernick711.4105766.06344.463250.66
Mark Sanchez411.759365.88945.744139.42
Cam Newton671.891865.57147.986246.98
Nick Foles36452465.545.5119.32
Joe Flacco723104565.31345.188262.44
Eli Manning761.6104365.18847.6269.5
Derek Carr600.4102864.2537.525192
Tony Romo696.295163.446.413266.3
Kirk Cousins264.337061.66744.0588.4
Teddy Bridgewater520.777059.23140.054175.66
Mike Glennon251.934757.83341.98389.58
Ryan Fitzpatrick480.468957.41740.033179.72
Case Keenum78.711356.539.3522.9
Blake Bortles535.977955.64338.279166.22
Andy Dalton619.587354.56338.719214.82
Geno Smith460.276154.35732.871150.8
EJ Manuel162.92705432.5858.72
Austin Davis333.551751.733.35107.64
Colt McCoy183.825751.436.7662.88
Brian Hoyer496.269549.64335.443157.26


Running Backs

The top ranked running back in PPR formats is none other than Matt Forte (43). With 102 receptions, Forte is a force to be reckoned with. If only he had a few more rushing touchdowns. This is a good example of the effect the new defensive element has on TSM. Before factoring in the defense, Le’Veon Bell (40.375) had the higher score. Afterwards, Forte is the leader.

How about standard scoring? The top ranked RB was DeMarco Murray (36.375). Given his 1845 yards rushing and 13 TDs, this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. After Murray is Bell (32.688) and Marshawn Lynch (32.188). PPR leader Forte is ranked 4th (31.875)

The lowest scoring RB in PPR with at least 100 carries was Anthony “Boobie” Dixon (8.875). What a boob! If we move to a minimum of 150 carries the shame is placed on Alfred Blue (12.563). The results are the same in standard scoring.

TSM likes both Andre Ellington and Mark Ingram. And to the surprise of many, TSM rates Giovani Bernard’s over Jeremy Hill.

PlayerASPG PPRASPGSPG PPRSPGFPTS PPRFPTS
Matt Forte4331.87528.03120.781342.6240.6
Le’Veon Bell40.37532.68828.9323.43370.5287.5
DeMarco Murray40.37536.37527.63124.894351.1294.1
Arian Foster34.84631.23124.85922.259269.3231.3
Marshawn Lynch34.12532.18822.34521.057302.3265.3
Andre Ellington32.525.41720.26715.867177.5131.5
Eddie Lacy32.2528.81320.76118.574272.6230.6
Jamaal Charles31.26727.66719.73817.484250.4210.4
Mark Ingram28.46226.30818.72417.324191.9162.9
Fred Jackson2819.42918.62612.912186.7120.7
Adrian Peterson282418.2515.6511.39.3
Giovani Bernard27.92322.76918.68715.241187.9144.9
Rashad Jennings27.90923.45517.44114.695138.5108.5
LeSean McCoy27.12524.62518.0416.377200.4171.4
Lamar Miller26.87523.62517.00714.982223.4185.4
Ahmad Bradshaw26.720.318.05313.713154.5116.5
Justin Forsett26.3752319.50617.019244.9200.9
Joique Bell24.821.93317.53915.499198.2164.2
Ronnie Hillman24.7520.62516.72914.004102.381.3
Matt Asiata24.66720.73315.98313.41190.2146.2
C.J. Anderson24.46721.86716.614.813211.3177.3
Jeremy Hill23.7522.31315.87414.911210.9183.9
Tre Mason23.16721.514.84613.746135.3119.3
Alfred Morris22.81322.2515.40915.022187.9170.9
Branden Oliver22.78618.35714.3511.564145.3109.3
Jonathan Stewart22.53819.69215.42613.487146121
Ryan Mathews21.66720.33313.68612.85366.757.7
Frank Gore21.520.81314.03613.611158.7147.7
Pierre Thomas21.45514.27314.1329.40512378
Andre Williams20.62519.56312.90412.217145.1127.1
Shane Vereen20.56314.62513.6899.726165.8113.8
Jerick McKinnon19.36414.45512.5529.35294.367.3
Stevan Ridley19.16718.83312.71112.5445248
Chris Ivory18.56317.512.46711.754152.3134.3
Joe McKnight18.512.511.5757.87524.718.7
Darren McFadden18.31314.12511.8199.119120.684.6
Reggie Bush18.27312.18212.9328.64110767
Steven Jackson18.216.86712.71211.819141.5121.5
Denard Robinson17.38515.07712.10810.477113.690.6
Darren Sproles17.26713.211.4728.779145.6105.6
Trent Richardson17.13314.411.5939.74117.890.8


Wide Receivers

Despite Antonio Brown having the highest non-adjusted score, once defense is factored in, TSM says that Demaryius Thomas is the top wide receiver in PPR formats. Then Brown, Odell Beckham, Emmanuel Sanders and Jordy Nelson round out the top five. As for standard scoring, the top five remain the same, except Beckham moves into the two spot, swapping places with Brown.

Despite only scoring 222 points, Julian Edelman comes in at the 6 spot in PPR formats.

PlayerASPG PPRASPGSPG PPRSPGFPTS PPRFPTS
Demaryius Thomas49.71428.2529.21616.605338.9227.9
Antonio Brown46.38626.06331.73417.845374.1245.1
Odell Beckham45.41726.91733.07919.607295204
Emmanuel Sanders43.97625.12525.84414.752299.8198.8
Jordy Nelson40.76524.2527.62216.445327.9229.9
Julian Edelman38.48119.85722.80411.78222.6130.6
Julio Jones38.42720.73327.46314.814297.4193.4
Randall Cobb37.08422.2525.12815.095291.4200.4
Alshon Jeffery36.40921.43823.27213.718261.6176.6
Jeremy Maclin36.04821.62524.59414.748276.8191.8
Dez Bryant35.74522.12526.1516.2316228
Golden Tate34.92319.12523.92513.102259.1160.1
Calvin Johnson34.56619.69223.68113.488226.7155.7
T.Y. Hilton32.67518.423.4213.173258.5176.5
Brandon LaFell32.58518.87519.30911.184210.6136.6
Eric Decker31.79217.53319.1610.569200.2126.2
Keenan Allen31.2816.42919.10710.014175.398.3
A.J. Green30.9817.23122.04612.279205.3136.3
Brandon Marshall30.7791819.67311.501179.1118.1
Sammy Watkins30.70218.12518.84711.122198133
DeAndre Hopkins30.48717.62521.03112.173231155
Mike Evans30.16918.33321.68713.178245.1177.1
Roddy White29.62316.07121.17111.493212.1132.1
Mike Wallace29.55317.68818.53111.077212.8145.8
Anquan Boldin29.3516.06319.99710.951219.6136.6
Steve Smith28.97215.81319.47210.641219.5140.5
Andre Johnson28.81814.73319.8810.187190.6105.6
DeSean Jackson28.23817.46719.9812.367209.6153.6
Brandin Cooks27.41415.119.42510.668139.386.3
Larry Fitzgerald27.26514.85717.2719.433151.488.4
Jarvis Landry26.79713.68816.8038.582181.497.4
Eddie Royal26.7215.81316.3229.659181.2119.2
James Jones26.67214.06315.5098.172173.6100.6
Kelvin Benjamin26.54815.12519.65311.178225.8152.8
Jordan Matthews26.0315.31317.75910.468202.2135.2
Malcom Floyd25.89215.7515.8169.632173.6121.6
Allen Robinson25.2513.117.188.933114.866.8
Kendall Wright25.18314.92917.74310.512167.9110.9
Brian Quick24.914.85715.9369.46480.555.5
Robert Woods24.76613.68815.2038.384162.997.9
Torrey Smith24.28515.62516.32210.511191.7142.7
Martavis Bryant24.27116.316.60511.175130.1104.1
Michael Floyd24.07414.68815.259.319165.3118.3
Doug Baldwin24.06713.31315.8538.768167.3101.3
Josh Gordon23.95511.817.228.5254.330.3
Rueben Randle23.77412.81317.3169.336182.8111.8
Vincent Jackson23.66712.18817.0138.775180.2110.2
Percy Harvin22.98212.53815.1388.259129.578.5
Dwayne Bowe22.85811.413.866.918135.475.4
Marques Colston22.76613.18816.1319.327177.2118.2


Tight Ends

No matter how you slice and dice it, Rob Gronkowski comes out on top in TSM’s analysis of tight ends. And I’ll tell you one thing, The Stats Machine sure does love tight ends. That include Martellus Bennett.

PlayerASPG PPRASPGSPG PPRSPGFPTS PPRFPTS
Rob Gronkowski40.77624.38824.16314.452266.4184.4
Martellus Bennett31.21216.92319.9510.817217.6127.6
Antonio Gates30.98219.11718.92511.677223.1154.1
Julius Thomas29.21519.8317.16911.654163.9120.9
Jimmy Graham27.59515.27919.55310.826229.9144.9
Greg Olsen27.47215.46720.33811.45220.8136.8
Travis Kelce26.37214.7115.9918.92177.2110.2
Delanie Walker24.87714.10217.5279.936176113
Charles Clay23.69912.88114.8618.077136.578.5
Heath Miller22.88912.8815.6598.811158.192.1
Dennis Pitta22.39310.20915.056.86128.512.5
Mychal Rivera22.32512.04912.9817.006133.475.4
Coby Fleener22.0713.76815.8199.869176.4125.4
Jason Witten21.72112.71415.8919.301164.3100.3
Jermaine Gresham20.32911.58514.4678.24413876
Larry Donnell19.98511.21814.5568.171153.390.3
Jared Cook19.92710.96812.7537.02133.481.4
Owen Daniels19.28311.23212.967.549124.776.7
Zach Ertz19.11910.04913.0446.856144.286.2
Jordan Reed18.6818.59513.2186.08294.544.5
Scott Chandler18.18410.28711.1636.315114.767.7
Dwayne Allen17.71912.1212.78.687116.587.5
Jordan Cameron17.25710.61712.4057.63278.454.4
Marcedes Lewis15.76310.12910.7256.89250.632.6
Kyle Rudolph14.8858.70910.3116.03359.135.1
Jace Amaro14.3657.2428.6574.36484.546.5
Jeff Cumberland13.4769.2638.1225.58265.742.7
A. Seferian-Jenkins13.4717.9119.6835.68753.132.1
Anthony Fasano13.1068.7157.9475.28471.646.6
Niles Paul12.9897.1339.1915.04793.754.7
John Carlson12.7037.2118.0474.5687441
Zach Miller12.6517.6248.3335.02213.67.6
Tim Wright12.5938.2447.4634.88587.761.7
Lance Kendricks12.518.2888.0065.30482.955.9
Luke Willson12.4088.1518.1735.36976.254.2
Vernon Davis12.347.7098.4075.25262.936.9
Brent Celek12.0887.1658.2474.8897038
Andrew Quarless12.0467.538.1635.10279.350.3

Here is a link to the full spreadsheet stats: The Stats Machine Data.

Stats Machine logging off…

 

 

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