Pierre Garçon is the newly signed #1 wide receiver of the San Francisco 49ers. You are probably asking yourself: “Why does the lead receiver of a team that Vegas predicts will win four or five games in 2017 matter for Fantasy Football drafts and why did I click on this article?” Great question, the three key reasons why Pierre Garçon is a super sleeper in 2017 Fantasy Football drafts are his projected opportunity, his reunion with an old offensive mastermind, and very his low price.

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Opportunity: Not only did the 49ers sign Garçon to a 5-year $48M deal this off-season, but they also wooed offensive mastermind Kyle Shanahan to be the franchise’s new Head Coach. Over the last decade of Kyle Shanahan’s career, which included stops as Offensive Coordinator in Houston, Washington, Cleveland and Atlanta, his ordained WR1 received an average of about 150 targets per season and a 25% market share of receptions. Shanahan’s scheme has been partially responsible for breakout seasons from supremely talented alpha receivers such as Andre Johnson in 2008 (115 receptions for 1,575 yards and 8 TD), Santana Moss 2010 (93 receptions for 1,115 yards and 6 TD), Pierre Garçon 2013 (113 receptions for 1,346 yards and 5 TD), and Julio Jones 2015 (136 receptions for 1,871 yards and 8 TD).

Reunion: As you may have noticed, Pierre Garçon and Kyle Shanahan have had some amazing success while together in Washington, especially in 2013, when Garçon led the NFL in receptions and total targets. Since there is a very positive and direct correlation between receiving targets and fantasy points, Garçon finished the 2013 season 10th in average fantasy points per game for wide receivers. Speaking of reunions, Shanahan’s quarterback while in Cleveland, Brian Hoyer, was also brought into San Francisco to compete for the starting quarterback position. In 2014, Shanahan coordinated Brian Hoyer’s offense that jumped out to an AFC North best 7-4 record through the first 12 weeks of the season. During the Browns’ hot streak of winning 6 of 8 games following the bye week, Brian Hoyer thew for a median average of 283 yards and 1-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and surpassing 300 yards through the air in 4 different games.  In classic Cleveland Browns fashion, they went on to lose their last 5 games in a row and eliminate themselves from playoff contention with a 7-9 record. Last season, as starting quarterback of the Chicago Bears for 4 full games, Brian Hoyer showed flashes of fantasy goodness with an average of 329 yards per game and a 2-to-0 TD-to-INT ratio that is very encouraging for Pierre Garçon’s prospects as a very strong 3rd receiver or FLEX on your team in 2017 that can average 10-12 fantasy points per game in what Fantasypros.com projects as the 3rd easiest schedule for wide receivers.

Price: As of August 8, 2017, FantasyPros.com consensus experts ranked Pierre Garçon as the 36th best wide receiver with an ADP of 83. Frankly, spending a 8th or 9th round pick on a player with Garçon’s history in an offense catered to his strengths devoid of any other talented weapons is pretty much automatic. Add the Vegas low win projection for the 49ers into the mix and there is a perfect recipe for an accumulation of garbage time scoring brewing in San Francisco. Other wide receivers coming off the board about the same time as Garçon include oft-injured  wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin, a third option catching passes from Jay Cutler in DeVante Parker, and inexperienced and raw Cameron Meredith who has Mike Glennon as his quarterback. Well established and hyped up veteran players going within a couple rounds before Garçon that I project to have nearly the same amount of receptions, yards, and touchdowns as the newest 49er include Brandon Marshall (second or third fiddle to Beckham Jr. doesn’t leave much volume), Sammy Watkins (boom-or-bust second option in a run first offense), and Martavis Bryant (Big Ben’s third or fourth option behind Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell).

BenK’s Razzball Ruling: Super Sleeper! In six of the last nine seasons, a Mike Shanahan WR has finished in the top-10 in the entire NFL in targets and I don’t see why Pierre Garçon can’t be the next target monster in San Francisco for Shanahan once again!

 

 

You can follow BenK on Twitter @BenKin97.

  1. Dom says:
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    I just made this trade tell me if you think its a good one with the roster below in a 16 man league:

    I trade: Marcus Mariota, Doug Martin, Jaquizz Rodgers, Brandon Marshall

    I get: Aaron Rodgers, Charles Sims, Tyrel Pryor, and Danny Woodhead

    QB Marcus Mariota
    RB Mark Ingram
    RB Frank Gore
    WR Jordy Nelson
    WR Dez Bryant
    TE Austin Hooper
    Flex Eddie Lacy

    Bench

    RB Doug Martin
    RB Alfred Morris
    RB Jacquizz Rodgers
    WR Martavis Bryant
    QB Joe Flacco
    WR Brandon Marshall

    K Adam Vinateri

    Def Bengals

    • Dom says:
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      @Dom: I dont have Alfred Morris anymore I actually have Robert Turbin now

      • benk

        benk says:
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        @Dom: Hey Dom! I think this trade is very beneficial for your team. When evaluating trades, I often look at where the best player is going and the simple fact that you get Aaron Rodgers, an elite option at the QB position, gives you the win in my book. Add in the fact that Pryor has more upside and target volume than Marshall and your team has been greatly improved with the trade.

        While it is tough to give up Martin+Quizz, that RB situation in TB is murky at best once everyone is healthy and returned from suspension, having consistency from Gore/Ingram/Lacy is pretty valuable in a 16tm league.

        Keep us posted on how the season goes!

  2. Vincent says:
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    Hey guys I’d like your opinion on something. I’m in a 10 team 1/2ppr keeper league. I have the 9th pick. Should I keep Odell Beckham and forfeit my first round pick or keep Jay Ajayai and lose my last round pick? I’m leaning toward Ajayai as in my opinion it would be like having 2 first round picks. Whatcha think?

    • Vincent says:
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      @Vincent: correction….keeping Ajayai would cost me my 9th round pick. Not my last

      • benk

        benk says:
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        @Vincent: Hey Vincent! When in a keeper league, I try to make sure I am keeping the most talented players that I can. Even though Ajayi’s price is only a 9th round pick, I would still keep Beckham Jr. because he is a less replaceable assett and carries much more consistency on a weekly basis.

        FantasyPros.com has Beckham Jr. as the 4th overall 1/2PPR asset, while Ajayi is the 12th overall.

        Ideally, you could try to snag Ajayi with your 12th overall pick if he falls, but there is a very unlikely chance that Beeckham Jr. would fall back to you at 9th overall.

        • Vincent says:
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          @benk: thanks for the advice! I’m going to sit down and take a good look at it.

          • benk

            benk says:
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            @Vincent: No problem, it is a tricky situation because the value of keeping Ajayi is pretty good. To me, Beckham Jr. is an elite asset and it is easier to find fill-in RBs on the waiver wire, especially in a shallower 10 team league, after injuries that can post similar numbers as Ajayi .

            Hopefully Ajayi falls to you at 12, but I don’t know how the 10 players that are kept in your league will shake out.

  3. Dom says:
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    Which team is better for week 1 and which is better for season long?

    Team 1:

    QB Aaron Rodgers
    RB Mark Ingram
    RB Frank Gore
    WR Jordy Nelson
    WR Dez Bryant
    TE Austin Hooper
    Flex Terrelle Pryor

    Bench
    QB Eli Manning
    RB Danny Woodhead
    RB Robert Turbin
    RB Jamaal Williams
    RB Eddie Lacy
    WR Martavis Bryant

    K Adam Vinateri
    Def Bengals

    Team 2:

    QB Tom Brady
    RB Lesean McCoy
    RB Jordan Howard
    WR Eric Decker
    WR Keenan Allen
    TE Zach Ertz
    Flex Ty Montgomery

    Bench:

    RB Duke Johnson
    RB Dion Lewis
    RB Darren Sproles
    WR Anquan Bolden
    WR Chris Hogan
    Def Bills

    K Dan Bailey

    Def Panthers

    • benk

      benk says:
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      @Dom: Hey Dom, I would say Team 1 is better for Week1 and the whole season as the WR seem to be significantly better. I would say the QB are pretty much a wash with Rodgers+Eli equal to Brady. Team 2 does have significantly better RB assets, but Team 1 should be able to be average with a combo of Ingram, Gore, Woodhead, and Lacy based on matchups and hotstreaks.

      I think both teams should compete for the playoffs with the amount of depth and starpower!

  4. Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
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    holy crap, 4 years seems VERY long (and the distance is a very cloudy one) as i had NO IDEA garcon was ever that good.

    • benk

      benk says:
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      @Eli Man Penguin Boy: Hey Penguin Boy! I would agree that 4 years is pretty long ago for Garcon, but he did basically have 80 catches for 1,000 yards last season in Washington and that was with other weapons on the team such as Jordan Reed, Desean Jackson and Jamison Crowder in the mix.

      Garcon was pretty good in Indianapolis with Peyton Manning too where he had 70 catches for 1,000 yards in 2011 before moving to Washington. For a 6th round pick out of Mount Union, Garcon has made a nice career for himself in the NFL!

      • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
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        @benk: i’m big on him this year for sure as only competent WR at SF.

  5. MrBigDraws says:
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    This was a really great article – honestly one of the best I’ve read on Razzball in awhile. Very useful information that swayed me to condider someone I previously would have automatically passed over. Thanks!

    • benk

      benk says:
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      @MrBigDraws: Thanks MrBigDraws! I appreciate your compliment about my article and am glad that you were receptive to the information and are now open to possibly selecting Garcon in your draft!

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