LOGIN

When is it time to officially Stop Drafting Travis Kelce?

No, this analysis isn’t all about Travis Kelce, but it basically is since we know we are all thinking it. If you have been reading this series before for running back (click here for RB article) and wide receivers (click here for WR article) you know the drill.

1. The years sampled were 2011-2020 for the tight end position only
2. The scoring format used for this analysis is full PPR
3. The analysis benchmark we will be discussing today is 50 targets. Every tight end ages 21-37 had to have at least 50 targets to qualify
4. When conducting the analysis, it was important to have a baseline for targets as many tight ends who don’t make it typically only play 3-4 years in their early 20s…..yada yada yada we used the same veribage from the previous articles so go check them out. 

Tight End Age Analysis

Like we always promise we will give you the high-level data first and you can take it for what it is worth. The first chart will includes the following:

Age – The tight end (TE) age for that season
Total TEs – Total tight ends (TE) who played at that age over that past 10 years
Total TEs 50 – The number of tight ends who hit 50 targets in a season
% who hit 50 – This is the percentage of tight ends who played at that age who received 50 or more targets in that season at that age
Total Points and PPG – These are the points and PPG in full PPR that these tight ends had at that age on average who hit 50 targets in a season

AGETotal TEsTotal TEs 50% who hit 50Average of PointsAverage of PPG
219111.10%94.75.9
22431125.60%132.19
231162118.10%125.99.1
241632716.60%122.38.5
251454229.00%142.310
261393122.30%145.99.9
271063129.20%150.410
28882730.70%140.39.5
29762127.60%141.89.5
30521426.90%16310.6
31411536.60%158.210.4
32251144.00%135.99.4
3319947.40%137.28.7
3413538.50%145.29.8
358450.00%16411.3
363266.70%190.913
3744100.00%143.99

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The third and final feature of this draft capital trilogy is the tight ends. If you missed the running back article, click here and if you missed the wide receiver article, click here! What we did was look back over the last 10 years (2011-2020) to see how many consistent fantasy contributors came out of each round of the NFL draft. We aren’t going to be talking about one hit wonders. Instead, we are highlighting the players who were able to sustain some level of fantasy success over their careers.

In this article we are reviewing the tight end position. The benchmark used was 6.5 points per game (PPG) in half point per reception (PPR) for their career. Even with the extremely low point total of 6.5 you will see very few tight ends ever become consistent fantasy contributors. Another key factor why the benchmark is a lot lower for tight ends is how poorly they perform as rookies. For example, notable tight ends George Kittle (5.7) and Mark Andrews (5.6) and T.J. Hockenson (5.4) all failed to hit 6 PPG in their rookie seasons.

Below you will find a chart breaking out draft capital by round for tight end. The chart is broken out into four columns:

  1. Round Drafted – Identifies the round in the NFL draft that the tight end were drafted
  2. Total tight end drafted – This is the total number of tight end drafted in that round over the past 10 years
  3. Career 6.5 PPG in .5 PPR – This column represents how many tight end drafted in that round hit the benchmark of 6.5 PPG for their careers in .5 PPR
  4. % Hit Rate – The final column shows what percentage of the tight end drafted in that round hit that benchmark

Feel free to just review the chart only and take what you want from it. If you want some additional insight on how we feel about 2021 prospects based on this data, it will be included later in the article!

Round
Drafted
Total Tight Ends
Drafted
Career
6.5 PPG in .5 PPR
% Hit Rate
18675%
218528%
324417%
42414%
51915%
62115%
72500%
Total1391813%
Total after Rd 38933.40%

 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Current NFC players with the most to gain in the upcoming NFL draft!

In this article we are going to discuss which current NFC players have the most to gain in the upcoming NFL draft. What this means is if a team passes on a skill position player or quarterback in the first few round which players currently on those rosters today will have the most to gain.

Each section we will highlight the team, how many picks each team has overall, how many picks they have rounds 1-3 and the players who have the most to gain. This article isn’t a mock or predicting any picks. Most likely at least half of these players we talk about today will be impacted by draft picks, but just in case they aren’t here is why we think they can improve in 2021.

Arizona Cardinals

Total picks: 6

Round 1: No. 16 overall

Round 2: No. 49

Round 3: N/A

Impacted Player: Chase Edmonds

Edmonds has 9 career games where he received 10 touches. In those games he averaged 13.4 PPG with a .89 fantasy points per touch. Edmonds only saw 10 touches in a game 6 times in 2020 so if he can be the 1A in 2021, he should improve on his RB28 finish from last season.

Impacted Player: Christian Kirk

The signing of A.J. Green offers provides an opportunity for Christian Kirk to kick inside. This is a much better suited position for Kirk who has a .18 higher YPRR when playing inside including a career high 1.9 YPRR in 2018. If Fitzgerald isn’t re-signed, he is vacating 62 slot targets that could go Kirk’s way in 2021.

 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

We have a new leader atop the RazzBowl standings after week 4—Pat Fitzmaurice of TheFootballGirl.com raced into the coveted spot on the legs of huge weeks from Chris Godwin, Jameis Winston, Austin Ekeler and David Johnson. Fitzmaurice now holds a meager 6 point lead in front of last week’s leader Michael Stepney, and the top 5 are separated by less than 30 points. Shout out to the 4 Razzball contributors who have risen into the top 12 (Zach 8th, Boof 9th, Pat 10th and Rudy 12th), keep up touching and squeezing, fellas. Yours truly is still stalking Donkey style down in 49th (of 180). I hope y’all are ready, things are about to get freaky on Team DT! 

What makes the RazzBowl especially unique compared to other best ball formats and industry leagues is our addition of a $10 FAAB budget for the entire season with a minimum of $1 bids. This allows teams to cycle out dead roster spots (e.g. Andrew LuckLamar Miller, etc) but it also means each team will only be allowed a maximum of ten moves for the entire season. Every dollar of each competitor’s free agent budget is just as precious as a Bill Belichick smile.

When teams choose to pony up their FAAB, it’s worthwhile to take a look and see why. There could be a goldmine of speculative adds buried in the RazzBowl transactions this season.

The first four weeks of the RazzBowl saw our industry competitors flush almost as much imaginary free agent money down the toilet as Antonio Brown managed to squander during two weeks of September. Week 5 saw our competitors tighten up their pocket books like Donkey Teeth when the dinner bill arrives. Seriously, who ordered all those drinks! 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Hey, we weren’t last this week! But there is still a lot of work to be done. Sitting in 8th place (out of 8) after 4 weeks may require some drastic changes. Because this is a total points league and not weekly head to head, my plan is to treat this team like a daily fantasy tournament lineup. A consistent floor won’t get KJ where he wants to be, so we need to be shooting for upside to make up some ground. What we’re looking for is weekly waiver fill-ins who should get touches in high scoring games and hope for the best. If it crashes, well KJ is no worse for the wear.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Passing offense is up. That might be at the price of rushing production. There’s plenty of time for things to balance, but this seems like a trend more than a fluke. Running back is currently a wasteland. Pay for the top options, like Melvin Gordon, with guaranteed volume and safe floors. I’m leaning towards the “cram […]

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The main point I make to people in week one of the NFL season is that you can’t know what to expect. Be wary of who you think is a good team or bad team. That pendulum swings the same way in week two. Don’t think you know who a team is because of a one-week performance. I’m looking at you Tampa Bay. To bring it back to our DFS Donkeycorn analogy, it’s still hard to tell the oasis from the mirage. Let proven producers like DeAndre Hopkins lead you to water. There will be plenty of overreaction to things we saw last week. Capitalize on that. My favorite plays this week:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Dearly beloved, we’re gathered here today to discuss a problem that affects us all. That problem is Peyton Manning. Let’s imagine for a moment that all of you are as dumb as the author of this article, and you drafted Manning. I drafted him a lot, like all over. So before you look at me with judgmental stares, understand I’m not very smart, and I make it usual practice to kill as many brain cells as possible. So now that we’ve established the problem (Manning), and the reasons behind it (my lack of intellectual capacity). It’s time to discuss some solutions, and how we can triage this problem. Yes, I really wanted to use “triage” in a sentence…. Let’s begin by saying it’s the Broncos bye week, so even if for some God forsaken reason you decide to hold onto old fuss and feathers, you’re going to need a fill-in. For the rest of us rational thinking normies, we need a replacement. So begins our Wavier Wire adds for Week 7.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

So here I am, cruising along with my fantasy year with Jimmy Graham a pick in one of my friends leagues. Then the whole foot issue comes up and my response is ‘O-M-G’ and I’m like ‘I’m a grown-ass man…why am I saying OMG?’ These are all important questions to evaluate as we dip into the psyche of a man who told you to SELL Graham not long ago. To be fair, Tehol and I discussed at length – read: he and I tweeted at each other and I asked ‘Is this bad?’ and he was like ‘bro, it’s bad’ and I was like ‘thanks, brah, you’re right’ and he was all ‘like totes no probs, breh’ and I was all like ‘this is terrible dialogue to post on a website’ and he was all like ‘true, bruh’ – so we felt we had this subject covered. To be fair, Graham has been much more hit/miss than many of his owners would’ve expected given the start. He was the cream of the crop at TE before the injury, how could the injury not affect that? That was a rhetorical question, of course, but thank you for the response. After catching 5 catches for 100 yards, scoring a TD and Shaquille O’Neal’ing a goal post, I think we have our answer. Graham is ‘Godzilla’ to us western folk and ‘Godjira’ to the East. You can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him until his foot falls off. I 100% own that my sell call could’ve been wrong but remember, we still have 4 more weeks until the season is over; if his reduced workload caused you any fantasy playoff heartache, feel free to cry into my abundant bosom. Ok, my bosom isn’t that abundant, leave me go, weeping one. Anywho, I’m sure you’re gonna ask: what do we do with Graham ROS? Well, sell windows have most likely come and gone so that’s no longer an option. Add/drop…who’s dropping Graham and adding fluff? Not me. So your only hope is you start him all week, every week until it pans out right. He hasn’t been terrible since the injury, just frustrating compared to previous numbers. Only so much control can be contributed to this little world we live in for fantasy and sometimes, little jackwads like myself come along and tell you how to do things and find I’m wrong. In other news from TNF from week 12 of the 2013 Fantasy Football season…

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Let me tell you something

If you took away the chicken

If you took away the thongs,

the celebrity references.

If you took away the swingers lifestyle.

And all the yayed out strippers that come with it.

If you took away the chiseled body and movie star good looks.

What would you have left?

Everything????

Nahhh, for that is Beddict, and Beddict is I, ready to pump it up once again and feed your malnourished minds with a treasure trove of gems that are only found on Razzball. Greetings all! How did you do last week? Dropped another dud did you? Well just like Aldon Smith did, you need to take it one day at at time, and you need to find a solution. Trust in Dr. Beddict to vanquish your worriment and help snatch that league title you’ve been craving. Some of you, may have been in the same league for years and held title-less, and that my friends is a torturous experience I know all too well. Like a Catholic Priest who’s had his Lambo repo’d and been disallowed from being 50 feet from teenage boys, it’s almost like we are nothing. I Tehol Beddict, hereby challenge you to rise up and rage against the dying of the light! We shall overcome and become legends. We shall become like Marvin Jones, who went hambone on the opposition last week to the tune of 8 receptions for 122 yards with 4 Tds on 8 targets. I’ve privately praised Marvin now for the past 2 seasons and wondered why he wasn’t starting over the barely average, if that, Sanu. Well, he’s a must own in all leagues at this point and showed in last night’s game he is a touchdown machine. I know it was called back by a questionable call but such is life. We witnessed Sanu dropping multiple balls and it’s a certainty that his role will decrease going forward. Jones is a very nice WR3 option and possible flex option depending on byes. I’m sure he’s owned now in your league and if you swooped him, you receive a big kudos from Uncle Tehol. Let’s move on to some other players, some tantalizing and some disgraceful to the game. Witness.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I don’t even want to talk about the week seven injuries, but I suppose I have to considering they play such a huge role in this crazy fake game we play.  We lost four offensive players for the rest of the season last Sunday.  Earnest Graham, Tim Hightower, Kerry Collins, and Chris Cooley.  Done.  Just […]

Please, blog, may I have some more?