Fantasy football is a tough game. In my opinion, the main reason is that player values change massively week to week in unpredictable ways. These things happen in baseball and basketball, but not nearly at the volume or frequency. There is no greater example of this in 2019 than Zach Ertz. During the pre-season Ertz was an obvious overvalue in the 3rd round.

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It was a very quiet this past Sunday in the NFL injury landscape. There was Jacoby Brissett, or Spicy Brisket, who did injure his knee, and a few other spots, but this week has mostly been a recovery week for stars like Patrick Mahomes, James Conner, T.Y. Hilton, and others. It’s important to keep up with all of the latest injury news and reports, especially as he slowly crawl to Week 14 and the start of the fantasy playoffs.

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Every time that we start to wonder about how good the Texans are, they come out and have an impressive performance. The Jaguars historically play really well in London games, but the Watt-less Texans still lived in Minshew’s grill. Minshew followed up a great game against the Jets the previous week with a stinker against a defense that is susceptible to the passing game. The Jaguars will head into the bye and have to decide if Foles is going to take his job back. If I were the Jags, I’d be putting Foles back under center. The last wild card spot in the AFC might only require 9 wins. The division crown is definitely an uphill climb after dropping both games against the division-leading Texans, but getting to 9 wins is definitely in play. 

The early games had some key injuries to the fantasy football world. Jacoby Brissett left the game against the Steelers in the second quarter with an MCL injury. Adam Thielen tried to give it a go with his bum hamstring, but he didn’t make it out of the first quarter. DeSean Jackson’s return in his first game since week 1 was short lived as he left early with an abdomen injury. Here is what else I saw during the early slate of games on Sunday. 

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While there were some trouble spots, Week 5 was generally pretty quiet for most teams in the NFL…. except for one in particular, who are missing a bunch of offensive stars before their Thursday Night Football clash. Good thing they’re facing the… *checks notes* New England Patriots and their tough defense. That should be fun! Let’s see if we can accentuate any positives while addressing the rest of the league.

Let’s talk about some of the players who landed on the injury report this week.

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Another week, another slew of injuries impacting the NFL landscape. We saw two starting QB’s go down last week, continuing the trend of backups getting the start for an extended period of time. For other teams, they saw their backs and receivers exit Week 4 with varying degrees of seriousness.

Let’s talk about some of the players who landed on the injury report this week.

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Well, if you thought Week 1 had a lot of injuries to keep track of, you had no idea what was coming.

Last Sunday saw three star QB’s suffer or complicate major injuries, while a slew of different backs and receivers saw themselves out of contests late into games with an abundance of injuries.

Let’s talk about some of the players who landed on the injury report this week.

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Rudy Gamble is back on the Razzball Fantasy Football Pod this week to discuss some of the big surprises from week one, including John Ross’s explosion, Lamar Jackson’s trouncing of the hapless Dolphins, and the poop flavor cake Baker served up against the Titans. Rudy also explains the weekly method of dialing in his projections and why you should put more weight in his numbers later in the week.

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A few years ago, my brother entered a team into a $1 daily fantasy league with around 56,000 people taking part. He entered several other teams into other leagues, some of which required a $20 entry, some $10, and so on.

By Monday night, all but one of his teams were out of the running. But in that $1 league, he wasn’t just in the money. He was in first place. And though he admittedly did his research with all of the lineups, that $1 team was more of a “gut” team, where he just kind of went against the most obvious choices, stacked Russell Wilson (5 TDs) and Doug Baldwin (3 TDs), had a vintage AP performance (158 yards, 2 TDs), got production from role players (29.6 pts from Brandon Marshall, 17 points from CIN DST), and the rest was history. A couple days later, he was $12,000 richer, and he’s been an advocate of going with his gut feeling ever since.

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Each week I will preview a couple of games that are ripe with fantasy juice for us to squeeze. Highlighting which players have a path to eat, DFS plays, and studs that should be faded.

Bonus content – The 50/50 Club: Seeking streaming options, managing through roster injuries, filling bye weeks, or looking for bargain DFS plays? This year I will select, what I’ve coined as, the 50/50 club. A weekly fantasy roster (QB, RB/RB, WR/WR, TE, DST) comprised of players that have ownership numbers less than 50% across major fantasy platforms. The following week we’ll review how we performed. At the end of the year, we will see how we stack up cumulatively at each position. Can we field a top 12 QB or TE, or top 24 RB/WR over the course of the season?

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A lot of fantasy football rankings and projecting boils down to how one distributes rush attempts and targets to a team’s RB/WR/TE. There are macro-variables (e.g., how many plays will the team run? what is the rush/pass split?), rate variables (what is the player’s catch rate?, what is their yards per target?) and kinda but not completely fluky TD projecting. But, for the most part, each season’s non-injury based breakouts and disappointments can be tied to a larger rush and/or target percentage than estimated by the consensus.

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