Times, they are changing, and rapidly. Nobody really knows what tomorrow will bring with the Covid-19 outbreak currently ravaging the globe. That hasn’t stopped NFL free agency. At least we have something in the sports world to day dream about and project. 

The cancellation of the Olympics is the beginning of the realization that Covid-19 could affect the 2020 NFL season. I’m not a science expert and I’m rarely considered a fantasy football expert for that matter, but I do believe that there is a solid possibility that football could fall victim to a postponement. 

I’m not embracing full blown panic that football will be cancelled in it’s entirety for the 2020 season, but if I had a guess, proper precautions will be taken by any means necessary. That’s enough for the subject that nobody can get away from. Fantasy football is our escape after all, so let’s keep try and find a light at the end of the tunnel. There are roster changes happening daily which of course means shake ups in fantasy football value for players across the league.

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Fresh off their record setting Monday Night Showcase, the New Orleans Saints head east to take on the red hot Tennessee Titans. Despite the cloudy narrative surrounding Drew Brees’ production outside of the Mercedes-Benz Dome, Brees is 5-1 in road games this season and scored 27.1 fantasy points in his one full game in an open air stadium (wk 11 @ TB). Drew Brees is a bet on hall-of-fame talent and experience QB1 play in week 16’s tied-for-highest projected point total.

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Welcome to Stat-o-Matic where we look at some advanced stats around the NFL. As a disclaimer, I am using this space to play around with some numbers and present some interesting findings. But, by no means is this validated or predictive data. I hope that it will lead to meaningful discoveries or it could inspire you to go down your own rabbit hole. We’re going to explore together, crunch some numbers and see what pops out.

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For a second week in a row Raheem Mostert dominated offensive snaps for the 49ers running back room, logging 73.7% (wk13) and 59.7% (wk14) snap share. Tevin Coleman ranked 3rd on the team in RB snap share following Matt Breida’s return from injury. Raheem handled 12 touches, over Breida’s 7 and Coleman’s 3. I’m not sure if Coleman is injured or Mostert and Breida are clearly the better option. Regardless, you can’t trust Coleman starting in any format for week 15 and most likely 16.

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Falcons are a protected species in the United States, but over in India they actually have an annual two-week falcon hunt where thousands upon thousands of falcons are massacred each year. It was on a pilgrimage to the Taj Mahal that Will Fuller developed a taste, or rather an addiction, to these beautiful birds of prey. So when the Falcons glided into Houston on Sunday, they never stood a chance against the bloodthirsty Fuller as he went off for 217 yards on 14 catches with his first 3 touchdowns of the season. The Texans wide receiver will now go into hiding for several weeks as the authorities attempt to track him down for his foul treatment of the fowl. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy football:

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It can get lonely out on the mountain. Some days the only conversation you’ll get is wind whipping around your earlobes and your heart beating inside your chest. It is only week 5 but we have reached an altitude now where most animals prefer not to venture. The elements are brutal and food is scarce. I hope you aren’t in need because there is not much meat on this weeks bone. Sometimes you just have to pretend you’re not hungry.

Each week, I will list intriguing players owned in no more than 30% of leagues per ESPN. For a primer on additional roster management and waiver wire principals read this. At the end I will also point out some players that can be safely dropped for a better option.

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Welcome back, my Lovelies! Here we are again fresh into a new NFL season. I have to take a
minute to brag because I managed to squirt out wins in all of my leagues this week. It was no easy feat, but I am the Goddess of Fantasy Football, so I suppose it was expected. How did you fare this week? I see that my Black Widow Curse did not waste any time this season and began to feast upon collarbones in Week 1. It rather scares me as to what it has in store for the rest of the season. I own Alshon Jeffrey in one league, so I am sure that means he will be decapitated at some point, given his propensity toward injury. It is almost like he is inviting it in. I am a glutton for punishment, I suppose, but I am used to others paying for it.

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Each week I will preview a couple of games that are ripe with fantasy juice for us to squeeze. Highlighting which players have a path to eat, DFS plays, and studs that should be faded.

Bonus content – The 50/50 Club: Seeking streaming options, managing through roster injuries, filling bye weeks, or looking for bargain DFS plays? This year I will select, what I’ve coined as, the 50/50 club. A weekly fantasy roster (QB, RB/RB, WR/WR, TE, DST) comprised of players that have ownership numbers less than 50% across major fantasy platforms. The following week we’ll review how we performed. At the end of the year, we will see how we stack up cumulatively at each position. Can we field a top 12 QB or TE, or top 24 RB/WR over the course of the season?

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Weighted opportunity is a metric that recalibrates the value of touches based on the expected fantasy points for carries (less valuable) and receptions (more valuable). Thanks to player profiler, I was able to see if there was a strong correlation between running back weighted opportunities per game (WO) and fantasy points per game (FP) in 2018. Sure enough, there was a strong correlation with an r2 value of 0.8864.

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