“The Amen Break” is probably the most popular drum beat in Western music. If you sat down right now behind a drum kit, you’d try to play it. You’d sound like Oscar the Grouch smashing trash cans, but you’d still try, at least. Meanwhile, “The Amon Break” is the respite from Amon-Ra St. Brown that you’ll feel acutely this week, akin to something like a bad hangover from off-brand tequila. Sure you had fun, but now that’s done and you’re ready to spend the next 8 hours watching HBO you’re “sharing” with your cousin who hasn’t paid rent in three months because his crypto account froze during the downturn. Sure, Kyle, we’ll see your OneCoin investments come to fruition in 2023. But for the rest of us? We’re just trying to get through the week with out Amon-Ra. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

There are a lot of things I’ve observed over the last two weeks, such as my coworker’s collection of other people’s hair and the hole in my backyard that a family of armadillos has been digging for at least the past week. These are observations I could have done without and which you need not know, but for the sake of a segue, you were forced to. And no, this isn’t Zoey 101, and no one is getting a free Segway. I would call those sobservations, as they made me sob, and such is not the focus of this post. Today, I am instead introducing the bi-weekly fantasy football Hobbservations column, which I will be releasing throughout the upcoming season to break down some of my biggest takeaways from the gridiron. Since Week 1 is still over one week away, this debut installment includes my major Hobbservations from drafts I have participated in, trends I have noticed in those drafts, player values I am targeting, and notes I have from the back-end of NFL training camps that warrant reiteration. So, forget about that hair collection and the holes which fill our lives, and join me in the first Hobbservations article of the 2022 campaign.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Team: New York Giants

New Play-Caller: Brian Daboll

Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins

 

Historical Overview

Brian Daboll is now best known for his 4-year stint as Bills OC where he oversaw the rise of Josh Allen. Things didn’t start off so great as the Bills’ offense in Allen and Daboll’s first season in 2018 was 30th in both yards and points. This is clearly a distant memory as the Bills have been top 5 in both categories each of the last 2 seasons. However, Daboll’s story isn’t just about his time in Buffalo. Prior to his time with the Bills, Daboll coached for 11 years under Bill Belichick in New England and was an OC for 4 years for 3 teams. These seasons will play an interictal part in how we view the potential of the New York Giants offense in 2022 and beyond.

In this article, we will break down the impact the move to the new coaching staff from the previous regime will have on each position. Later we will use this information to help us determine if the fantasy-relevant player can offer value at their current ADP.

 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The receiver position will be deep in 2022, and it only gets better as this year’s draft class looks solid and will offer at least seven immediate starters, but also has quality depth throughout the class. I recommend taking one of the players from the top six to ensure you have an elite and reliable playmaker at the position. After A.J. Brown they all have blemishes, but they also have upside. Pocket your top six stud and you will feel better about chances with the rest. I wouldn’t mind starting a draft with Deebo Samuel (6) and waiting until Michael Pittman Jr. (23) to get your second wideout. The position has studs and depth to offer. Let’s begin our breakdown with the top 40.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Being a Buffalo Bills fan means you already have certain trigger words that cause severe mental anguish. Even the slightest mention of the words “wide right” is enough to make a Bills fan crash into the nearest folding table. If that wasn’t enough, after the 2022 playoffs you might as well add “13 seconds” and “squib kick” to the list of no-no, naughty words for Buffalonians. Then, of course, the Cincinnati Bengals had to go and rub it in during the AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs. 

The Bills’ exit from the playoffs was equal parts exciting and heartbreaking. But their late-season offensive surge that continued into the playoffs taught us some valuable lessons as we ponder the 2022 fantasy football season. Who are we buying and selling on the Bills for next season? Why not start with a guy who had a performance never before seen in a playoff game. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Air Yards have told quite the tale of the wide receivers in 2021. In the top ten list, air yards had some no-doubter homeruns like Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams. But there were also some swings and misses such as Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore and Courtland Sutton. If you were counting on any of these guys as your WR1/2, your season probably ended two weeks ago. But all is not lost! Store this info in the back of your mind and monitor these situations when quarterbacks start signing. Guys like McLaurin, Moore, and Sutton don’t just get air yards because they are lucky. Targets are earned and if these guys can get some more capable arms delivering the ball, they become the sleepers in your draft. 

Each week, this column dissects air yards for actionable info in the weeks to come, but for this column there will be a focus on championship week. For Week 17, we will do a quick analysis of the list of the 73 wide receivers who finished last week with at least 30 air yards and see if there are any diamonds we can mine from the rough.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

We’ve told you this before, and we’ll tell it to you again here: the best projection systems are accurate on the best players about 35-45% of the time, depending on various factors like slate size, injuries, weather, and proximity to unsanitary gas station food sources. When people say that “fantasy football is just luck,” well, they’re wrong. Fantasy football is about educated guesses, really. Just like there was no real reason that GameStop and Doge Coin should have been making people millionaires earlier this year, they nonetheless did make people rich. People are able to make educated guesses about the trends of chaos and say, “The risk of this commodity meets my expectation for value, so I’ll take the risk.” That’s basically what fantasy sports are all about: what player will you draft at what position, and how much value will they bring your team? And as much as we analysts like to say that we are certain about stuff, the truth is that the more uncertain and skeptical the analyst is, the more likely they are to be reliable over the long term. Analysts tell themselves all sorts of narratives in all sorts of ways to prepare for each week of fantasy sports: Rudy Gamble uses snap count data, I tend to consider how likely a player is to end up in a favorable game script, and Donkey Teeth considers how a player looks without their shirt on. And in a week like this — Week 15 of 2021 fantasy football for the SEO record — we find ourselves in a world of massive underdog narratives that make no analytical sense to predict at the beginning of the season. Craig Reynolds — a guy who went undrafted and for three years was unable to crack even the practice squad of teams that didn’t have running backs — put up 112 yards rushing as the Lions triumphed over the Cardinals and gained their second win of the year (not season…year). Aight, this paragraph is getting long. You get the point: the impossible was possible tonight. Tonight. (Now you’re singing it in your head, I bet) Let’s check out the rest of the players that you probably didn’t start unless you were in a 50,000 person DFS contest. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Taking inventory of target share (TS) and snap share (SS) data is a critical tool to help with start-sit decisions, and provide a framework for buy-low/sell-high trade candidates. Every Wednesday the Target Report will highlight key TS/SS data and takeaways from the weekend. Keep in mind this is one data point to reference when making weekly lineup decisions. Utilizing all of Razzball’s tools will help complete the decisions making process each week. 

Success in fantasy football is built around opportunity, especially consistent opportunity. Don’t get caught up only chasing fantasy points. Peyton Manning focused more on what happened between endzones versus what transpired on the scoreboard. It is important not to overreact to a poor fantasy outing when the usage is still there. Or overreact to a fantasy explosion for a player that barely found the field or was barely targeted in the game. Trust the data and trust the process…

Please, blog, may I have some more?