Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 15
2 8
3 8
4+ 25
Grand Total 56

Team: Arizona Cardinals

Opponent: New England

WR1: DeAndre Hopkins

WR2: Christian Kirk

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Stephon Gilmore

                                                  J.C. Jackson

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 27 7.4 96.3 0.4 16
Vs. Shadow Coverage 17 6.5 76.2 0.6 14.4
vs. Stephon Gilmore 3 6.7 72.7 0 10.6

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

According to PFF this season DeAndre Hopkins has yet to face any shadow coverage in 2020. This comes after back to back seasons where he saw shadow coverage in 50% of his games.  This “softer” cornerback schedule has led to a solid season so far in 2020 as Hopkins is the WR7 in PPG. Overall, throughout his career Hopkins has been solid vs. shadow coverage as his 14.4 PPG is still borderline WR1 numbers.

As for Christian Kirk he has never seen shadow coverage in his career, but that doesn’t stop the Patriots from using shadow coverage on multiple players. In weeks 9 and 11 of 2020 the Patriots used multiple CBs to shadow the opposing teams WRs and in 2019 used Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson in similar roles down the stretch.

Week 12 Recommendation DeAndre Hopkins – WR3/Flex

                                   Christian Kirk – SIT

Hopkins’ 10.6 vs. Stephon Gilmore doesn’t make him a sit, but tempering expectations on the road vs. the Patriots isn’t a bad idea. Hopkins has yet to score a TD or top 80 yards receiving in any of the games vs. Gilmore since he joined the Patriots back in 2017. These numbers leave Hopkins as solid WR2/flex in week 12.

As for Christian Kirk J.C. Jackson has been playing at a very high level slowing down a white-hot Will Fuller (6-80) while leading the NFL in interceptions so far in 2020. This season the Patriots have yet to allow a team to have multiple WRs hit double digit fantasy points in .5 PPR at home in 2020.

DFS Recommendation – DeAndre Hopkins Price FD $8,500 / DK $8,100

                                           Christian Kirk Price FD $6,100 / DK $5,800

Hopkins vs. Gilmore doesn’t equal DFS success as his 10 PPG will not justify his cost on both sites. At this price point you can pay up for Tyreek Hill in a game which should be a shootout in TB. As for Christian Kirk his price point on both sites is between WR 24-30, and with not a lot of WR success overall when the Patriots play at home its best to pivot. Players I would use over Kirk include DeVante Parker vs. NYJ and Curtis Samuel vs. MIN.

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Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 13
2 7
3 7
4+ 25
Grand Total 52

 

Team: Houston Texans

Opponent: New England Patriots

WR1: Will Fuller

Shadow Coverage Matchup:  Stephon Gilmore

 

Will Fuller vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 23 4.8 70.5 0.5 12.6
Vs. Shadow Coverage 4 3 45 0.3 7.5

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

As we discussed in prior articles Will Fuller hasn’t seen much shadow coverage in his career due to DeAndre Hopkins. However, when he has seen it over the past two and a half seasons there is a notable dip. This includes a 1-8 performance vs. the Patriots just last season. In 2020 Will Fuller has shined in his new role, and was able to find the end zone in his lone shadow coverage matchup securing 3-35-1 vs. Jaire Alexander in week 7

Week 11 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

With Stephon Gilmore nursing a bump knee it is fair to question of effective he will be slowing down Will Fuller. This season Gilmore has only shadowed one elite WR all season which was D.K. Metcalf in week 2. Metcalf did get loose for a long TD finishing with 4-92-1 on the day. I do believe Gilmore will be able to slow down Fuller, but playing at home with no David Johnson, Watson will be expect to throw a lot in week 11.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $7,100 / DK $6,900

On both sites Will Fuller is priced as a WR1 and will cost you well over 10% of your budget. This makes him a DFS fade as his best performance to date in shadow coverage was 11 points which won’t get it done in DFS. Players I would pivot to include Kenny Golladay vs. CAR and Diontae Johnson vs. JAX

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Team: Washington Football Team

Opponent: Detroit Lions

WR1: Terry McLaurin

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Desmond Trufant

 

Terry McLaurin vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 15 4.9 72.7 0.5 12.5
Vs. Shadow Coverage 7 5 74.3 0.4 12.5

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

So far in 2020 Terry McLaurin has gotten it done vs. Shadow coverage finishing as a WR1 in 2/3 contests. However, in week 2 vs. Arizona it wasn’t until the Washington Football Team was down 3 scores late when McLaurin to finally got his production. Last week vs. James Bradberry McLaurin’s final line looks strong with 7-115-1, but his 68-yard TD came from the slot on a play where 3 Giants defenders missed a tackle. Now making plays isn’t a bad thing and there is 4 quarters in football no matter what so production is production.

Week 9 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

It took almost all season, but the Lions finally have a CB they can use as a shadow corner. Offseason acquisition Desmond Trufant is finally healthy and was tasked to shadow Adam Thielen holding him to 2-38 on 5 targets. The Lions were one of the top teams in using shadow coverage the prior two seasons, so we should expect this trend to continue. McLaurin has been great all year, but I don’t expect the Lions offense to put up points in bunches which means McLaurin might not have the best game flow to dominate this week.

DFS Recommendation – Price FanDuel (FD) $7,000 / Draft Kings (DK) $6,800

On FD McLaurin is priced as a top 15 option and with both offenses not expected to light it up this week I would look elsewhere. Players on FD I would pivot to include Robert Woods vs. SEA and Allen Robinson vs. MIN. On DK McLaurin is getting the love he deserves being priced as a top 10 option. However, this week player should pivot away as both Robert Woods and Allen Robinson should have better matchups.

Team: New York Giants

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Team: Minnesota Vikings

Opponent: Green Bay Packers

WR1: Adam Thielen

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Jaire Alexander

Adam Thielen vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 26 5.4 66.4 0.6 12.8
Vs. Shadow Coverage 8 5.8 82.4 0.9 16.4
Vs. Jaire Alexander 2 7 117.5 1.5 24.3

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Adam Thielen has been one of the best WRs when facing shadow coverage throughout his career. This includes three great performances in 2020 vs. Jaire Alexander in week 1 (6-110-2), Bradley Roby in week 4 (8-114-1) and A.J. Terrell (3-51-1). Now I am not going to sit here and say this is the murderers row of cornerbacks, but even before 2020 Thielen has been very consistent when facing shadow coverage which is reflected in his 16.4 PPG.

Season Long Recommendation – Start

To say Adam Thielen has Jaire Alexander’s number is an understatement. In 2 career games in his coverage Thielen has dominated him securing 7 – 117.5 – 1.5 while averaging a robust 24.3 PPG. This game will be in Lambeau and early indication is it will be cold and windy. This will be the first time Thielen will face Alexander in shadow coverage on the road so maybe another 20 point performance is out of the question. That being said, with Green Bay 6-point favorites the expectation is the Vikings will need to throw early and often to keep up. That is why Thielen is a must start season long player.

DFS – Price FD $7,700 / DK $7,200

Adam Thielen is rated as a top 5 WR on both sites meaning he will need to have another monster game to return value for you in week 8. His historical production vs. Alexander suggests that he could do it again, but in 2/3 games in Green Bay he has been held under 100 yards and had zero touchdowns. Call it a hunch but Thielen might be a DFS fade this week on the road. Players I would pivot to include A.J Brown vs. CIN and Tyreek Hill vs. NYJ.

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The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 2

Team: Chicago Bears

Opponent: New York Giants

WR1: Allen Robinson

Shadow Coverage Match-up: James Bradberry

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Allen Robinson vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All other opponents 22 5.5 72.4 0.4 12.4
Vs. Shadow Coverage 7 4.6 44.1 0.3 8.4
Vs. James Bradberry N/A

 

When reviewing Allen Robinson’s career stats vs. shadow coverage he had 2 big games and 5 duds. His big weeks came vs. notable corners Marshon Lattimore and Darius Slay where he turned 12 targets into 80 yards plus yards and a score in both. The interesting thing about the Saints game is Lattimore shut down Robinson when he covered him on 67% of his snaps, but Robinson was able to dominate in the slot which helped him finish with a strong day. The remaining 5 games Robinson struggled, failing to get to 50 yards or score in any of them.

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Did someone convince you to play IDP? Enjoying it? Played before and are basking in the glory of still winning despite not starting Marcus Maye? Need some waiver advice? Let’s take a quick look at last week’s highlights and then see who can help you this week and the rest of the season on the IDP waiver wire.

The Football Team’s defensive line were the stars of the week. Eight sacks of Carson Wentz led by Ryan Kerrigan’s 2 sacks. Rookie Chase Young looked good and had 1.5 sacks along with unheralded NT Matt Ioannidis. Are they that good? Well….they’re good, but don’t expect this production across the board each week. The Eagles were playing with a decimated offensive line. The only player playing their projected position was C Jason Kelce. All-Pro G Brandon Brooks and LT Andre Dillard are done for the season. Lane Johnson missed the game still recovering from ankle surgery and Jason Peters, signed to replace Brooks at guard moved over to left tackle, a position that the Eagles moved on from him after last season. The Football Team had its way with a second and third-string line. Do not expect the same production in Arizona, but they are a good group and will be heard from again.

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The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 1

Team: Minnesota Vikings

Opponent: Green Bay Packers

WR1: Adam Thielen

Shadow Coverage Match-up: Jaire Alexander

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Adam Thielen vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents
23 5.5 69 0.5 12.8
Vs. Shadow Coverage
5 5.8 76.8 0.6 14.2
Vs. Jaire Alexander
1 8 125 1 22.5

Season long Recommendation – Start

After a lost 2019 Adam Thielen looks to bounce back quick vs. division rival Green Bay and tier 2 shadow corner Jaire Alexander. Last season the Packers used Jaire Alexander to shadow Stefon Diggs, but with Diggs now gone Thielen will most likely draw coverage from the Packers top corner. The last time Thielen squared off directly vs. Alexander was in Week 12 of 2018. Thielen got the best of Alexander torching the Packers for 8-125-1. A big key for Thielen is he plays a lot of his snaps in the slot, and even vs. notable shadow corners like Marshon Lattimore he has shown he can win in these match-ups. This is why I got a Thielen that sitting him is a bad idea. Did you see what I did there…no…ok moving on. 

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