The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 17

Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 23
2 13
3 13
4+ 29
Grand Total 78

Team: Dallas Cowboys

Opponent: New York Giants

WR1: Amari Cooper

Shadow Coverage Matchup: James Bradberry

Amari Cooper vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 31 5.6 77.6 0.5 13.3
Vs. Shadow Coverage 15 4.4 57.5 0.4 10.3
vs. James Bradberry 1 2 23 0 3.3

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Amari Cooper’s performance vs. shadow coverage has been ok vs. shadow coverage posting 10 PPG in .5 PPR since 2018. However, it is important to point out he has failed to hit double digits in 8 games while failing to hit 6 points in 7 of those contests. This low floor tends to make Cooper more of a boom or bust prospect when facing notable shadow corners.

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Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 22
2 12
3 11
4+ 29
Grand Total 74

 

Team: Baltimore Ravens

Opponent: New York Giants

WR1: Marquise Brown

Shadow Coverage Matchup: James Bradberry

Marquise Brown vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 25 3.4 48 0.5 9.4
Vs. Shadow Coverage 3 4.3 3.7 0 4.8

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Marquise Brown hasn’t seen much shadow coverage in 2020 only getting the followed once back in week 2 by Bradley Roby. In that game Brown caught 5 receptions for 42 yards with no scores. In three career games in shadow coverage Brown has yet to top 50 yards in any game. This has led to his career PPG to be just under 5 in .5 PPR.

Week 16 Recommendation – Sit

This week Marquise Brown will square off vs. Giants top CB James Bradberry. Bradberry so far in 2020 has faced 8 WRs in shadow coverage holding them to a combined 8.4 PPG in .5 PPR. This includes holding D.K. Metcalf (5-80), Amari Cooper (2-23) and Allen Robinson (3-33) well below their season averages in 2020. Granted Brown is coming off four straight productive games but this matchup vs. James Bradberry makes him a fade in week 16.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $6,200 / DK $5,700

Marquise Brown is listed as a top 24 WR on each site making him a DFS fade for week 16. Notable players in the same price range I would pivot to include Jarvis Landry vs. NYJ and Cole Beasley vs. NE.

Team: Dallas Cowboys

Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles

WR1: Amari Cooper

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Darius Slay

Amari Cooper vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 30 5.7 76.1 0.5 13.2
Vs. Shadow Coverage 15 4.4 57.5 0.4 10.3
vs. Darius Slay 1 3 38 0 5.3
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Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 18
2 9
3 11
4+ 28
Grand Total 66

 

Team: Arizona Cardinals

Opponent: New York Giants

WR1: DeAndre Hopkins

Shadow Coverage Matchup: James Bradberry

 

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 27 7.4 96.3 0.4 16
Vs. Shadow Coverage 19 6.5 73.8 0.6 14.1
vs. James Bradberry 1 5 41 0 6.6
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Team: Atlanta Falcons

Opponent: New Orleans Saints

WR1: Julio Jones

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Marshon Lattimore

Julio Jones vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 22 7.2 109.5 0.5 17.6
Vs. Shadow Coverage 16 6 81.3 0.4 13.4
vs. Marshon Lattimore 1 3 79 0 9.4

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Ok, let’s try this again! After Lattimore missed week 11 and Julio left early we still don’t have much to go on when these two play each other. Back in 2018 the Saints used Marshon Lattimore on Calvin Ridley and tried to double Julio with Eli Apple as the primary CB. Let’s just say that didn’t go well as Julio went for 11-147. In 2019 the Saints wised up and used Lattimore on Julio; however, Lattimore left the game early due to injury and only played half the snaps. Still Julio only finished with a modest 3-79 all of which came after Lattimore left the game.  Later in the year Julio missed the second game vs. the Saints so you see we truly don’t know how this matchup will pan out.

Week 13 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

With Julio dealing with another injury in 2020 it is hard to trust him as his usual #1 self in week 13. The good news for Julio is Lattimore has only shadowed Mike Evans in 2020 and with his counterpart Janoris Jenkins out the Falcons should be able to move the football more this week. Most fantasy teams won’t have the depth to fade Julio and with his career 13.4 PPG vs. shadow coverage, Julio should do enough to get the job done in season long leagues

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $8,000 / DK $6,600

Julio is priced as a top 8 option on FD making him a full fade at that price. On DraftKings you are able to get him at a reduced cost at roughly top 16 value, but even at that price playing on a bum wheel it might make him tough to trust. Players I would pivot to include Allen Robinson vs. DET and Adam Thielen vs JAX.

 

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Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 15
2 8
3 8
4+ 25
Grand Total 56

Team: Arizona Cardinals

Opponent: New England

WR1: DeAndre Hopkins

WR2: Christian Kirk

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Stephon Gilmore

                                                  J.C. Jackson

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 27 7.4 96.3 0.4 16
Vs. Shadow Coverage 17 6.5 76.2 0.6 14.4
vs. Stephon Gilmore 3 6.7 72.7 0 10.6

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

According to PFF this season DeAndre Hopkins has yet to face any shadow coverage in 2020. This comes after back to back seasons where he saw shadow coverage in 50% of his games.  This “softer” cornerback schedule has led to a solid season so far in 2020 as Hopkins is the WR7 in PPG. Overall, throughout his career Hopkins has been solid vs. shadow coverage as his 14.4 PPG is still borderline WR1 numbers.

As for Christian Kirk he has never seen shadow coverage in his career, but that doesn’t stop the Patriots from using shadow coverage on multiple players. In weeks 9 and 11 of 2020 the Patriots used multiple CBs to shadow the opposing teams WRs and in 2019 used Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson in similar roles down the stretch.

Week 12 Recommendation DeAndre Hopkins – WR3/Flex

                                   Christian Kirk – SIT

Hopkins’ 10.6 vs. Stephon Gilmore doesn’t make him a sit, but tempering expectations on the road vs. the Patriots isn’t a bad idea. Hopkins has yet to score a TD or top 80 yards receiving in any of the games vs. Gilmore since he joined the Patriots back in 2017. These numbers leave Hopkins as solid WR2/flex in week 12.

As for Christian Kirk J.C. Jackson has been playing at a very high level slowing down a white-hot Will Fuller (6-80) while leading the NFL in interceptions so far in 2020. This season the Patriots have yet to allow a team to have multiple WRs hit double digit fantasy points in .5 PPR at home in 2020.

DFS Recommendation – DeAndre Hopkins Price FD $8,500 / DK $8,100

                                           Christian Kirk Price FD $6,100 / DK $5,800

Hopkins vs. Gilmore doesn’t equal DFS success as his 10 PPG will not justify his cost on both sites. At this price point you can pay up for Tyreek Hill in a game which should be a shootout in TB. As for Christian Kirk his price point on both sites is between WR 24-30, and with not a lot of WR success overall when the Patriots play at home its best to pivot. Players I would use over Kirk include DeVante Parker vs. NYJ and Curtis Samuel vs. MIN.

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Team: Washington Football Team

Opponent: Detroit Lions

WR1: Terry McLaurin

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Desmond Trufant

 

Terry McLaurin vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 15 4.9 72.7 0.5 12.5
Vs. Shadow Coverage 7 5 74.3 0.4 12.5

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

So far in 2020 Terry McLaurin has gotten it done vs. Shadow coverage finishing as a WR1 in 2/3 contests. However, in week 2 vs. Arizona it wasn’t until the Washington Football Team was down 3 scores late when McLaurin to finally got his production. Last week vs. James Bradberry McLaurin’s final line looks strong with 7-115-1, but his 68-yard TD came from the slot on a play where 3 Giants defenders missed a tackle. Now making plays isn’t a bad thing and there is 4 quarters in football no matter what so production is production.

Week 9 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

It took almost all season, but the Lions finally have a CB they can use as a shadow corner. Offseason acquisition Desmond Trufant is finally healthy and was tasked to shadow Adam Thielen holding him to 2-38 on 5 targets. The Lions were one of the top teams in using shadow coverage the prior two seasons, so we should expect this trend to continue. McLaurin has been great all year, but I don’t expect the Lions offense to put up points in bunches which means McLaurin might not have the best game flow to dominate this week.

DFS Recommendation – Price FanDuel (FD) $7,000 / Draft Kings (DK) $6,800

On FD McLaurin is priced as a top 15 option and with both offenses not expected to light it up this week I would look elsewhere. Players on FD I would pivot to include Robert Woods vs. SEA and Allen Robinson vs. MIN. On DK McLaurin is getting the love he deserves being priced as a top 10 option. However, this week player should pivot away as both Robert Woods and Allen Robinson should have better matchups.

Team: New York Giants

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Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

Opponent: Houston Texans

WR1: D.J. Chark

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Bradley Roby

 

D.J. Chark vs. Shadow Coverage

Opponent

Games

Rec

Yards

TDs

PPG

All Other Opponents

18

4.9

66.8

0.6

12.8

Vs. Shadow Coverage

3

3.7

32.3

0.0

5.1

Vs. Houston Texans

3

4.7

34.3

0.3

7.8

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

It has been a tough go of it for D.J. Chark when he has faced shadow coverage in his young career only averaging 5.1 PPG. This includes a matchup earlier this season vs. Bradley Roby where he only secured 3 receptions for 16 yards. This production came on a day when Gardner Minshew threw for 301 yards and 2 scores. Dating back to last season Chark has yet to get over 50 yards or score in a game when he faces shadow coverage.

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Team: Minnesota Vikings

Opponent: Green Bay Packers

WR1: Adam Thielen

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Jaire Alexander

Adam Thielen vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 26 5.4 66.4 0.6 12.8
Vs. Shadow Coverage 8 5.8 82.4 0.9 16.4
Vs. Jaire Alexander 2 7 117.5 1.5 24.3

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Adam Thielen has been one of the best WRs when facing shadow coverage throughout his career. This includes three great performances in 2020 vs. Jaire Alexander in week 1 (6-110-2), Bradley Roby in week 4 (8-114-1) and A.J. Terrell (3-51-1). Now I am not going to sit here and say this is the murderers row of cornerbacks, but even before 2020 Thielen has been very consistent when facing shadow coverage which is reflected in his 16.4 PPG.

Season Long Recommendation – Start

To say Adam Thielen has Jaire Alexander’s number is an understatement. In 2 career games in his coverage Thielen has dominated him securing 7 – 117.5 – 1.5 while averaging a robust 24.3 PPG. This game will be in Lambeau and early indication is it will be cold and windy. This will be the first time Thielen will face Alexander in shadow coverage on the road so maybe another 20 point performance is out of the question. That being said, with Green Bay 6-point favorites the expectation is the Vikings will need to throw early and often to keep up. That is why Thielen is a must start season long player.

DFS – Price FD $7,700 / DK $7,200

Adam Thielen is rated as a top 5 WR on both sites meaning he will need to have another monster game to return value for you in week 8. His historical production vs. Alexander suggests that he could do it again, but in 2/3 games in Green Bay he has been held under 100 yards and had zero touchdowns. Call it a hunch but Thielen might be a DFS fade this week on the road. Players I would pivot to include A.J Brown vs. CIN and Tyreek Hill vs. NYJ.

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