The third and final feature of this draft capital trilogy is the tight ends. If you missed the running back article, click here and if you missed the wide receiver article, click here! What we did was look back over the last 10 years (2011-2020) to see how many consistent fantasy contributors came out of each round of the NFL draft. We aren’t going to be talking about one hit wonders. Instead, we are highlighting the players who were able to sustain some level of fantasy success over their careers.

In this article we are reviewing the tight end position. The benchmark used was 6.5 points per game (PPG) in half point per reception (PPR) for their career. Even with the extremely low point total of 6.5 you will see very few tight ends ever become consistent fantasy contributors. Another key factor why the benchmark is a lot lower for tight ends is how poorly they perform as rookies. For example, notable tight ends George Kittle (5.7) and Mark Andrews (5.6) and T.J. Hockenson (5.4) all failed to hit 6 PPG in their rookie seasons.

Below you will find a chart breaking out draft capital by round for tight end. The chart is broken out into four columns:

  1. Round Drafted – Identifies the round in the NFL draft that the tight end were drafted
  2. Total tight end drafted – This is the total number of tight end drafted in that round over the past 10 years
  3. Career 6.5 PPG in .5 PPR – This column represents how many tight end drafted in that round hit the benchmark of 6.5 PPG for their careers in .5 PPR
  4. % Hit Rate – The final column shows what percentage of the tight end drafted in that round hit that benchmark

Feel free to just review the chart only and take what you want from it. If you want some additional insight on how we feel about 2021 prospects based on this data, it will be included later in the article!

Round
Drafted
Total Tight Ends
Drafted
Career
6.5 PPG in .5 PPR
% Hit Rate
1 8 6 75%
2 18 5 28%
3 24 4 17%
4 24 1 4%
5 19 1 5%
6 21 1 5%
7 25 0 0%
Total 139 18 13%
Total after Rd 3 89 3 3.40%

 

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Current NFC players with the most to gain in the upcoming NFL draft!

In this article we are going to discuss which current NFC players have the most to gain in the upcoming NFL draft. What this means is if a team passes on a skill position player or quarterback in the first few round which players currently on those rosters today will have the most to gain.

Each section we will highlight the team, how many picks each team has overall, how many picks they have rounds 1-3 and the players who have the most to gain. This article isn’t a mock or predicting any picks. Most likely at least half of these players we talk about today will be impacted by draft picks, but just in case they aren’t here is why we think they can improve in 2021.

Arizona Cardinals

Total picks: 6

Round 1: No. 16 overall

Round 2: No. 49

Round 3: N/A

Impacted Player: Chase Edmonds

Edmonds has 9 career games where he received 10 touches. In those games he averaged 13.4 PPG with a .89 fantasy points per touch. Edmonds only saw 10 touches in a game 6 times in 2020 so if he can be the 1A in 2021, he should improve on his RB28 finish from last season.

Impacted Player: Christian Kirk

The signing of A.J. Green offers provides an opportunity for Christian Kirk to kick inside. This is a much better suited position for Kirk who has a .18 higher YPRR when playing inside including a career high 1.9 YPRR in 2018. If Fitzgerald isn’t re-signed, he is vacating 62 slot targets that could go Kirk’s way in 2021.

 

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B_Don and Donkey Teeth join you right before turkey day! While you’re out doing the last minute shopping, grab your headphones and listen to the newest episode! 

Best wishes for a speedy recovery for the talented, young QB, Joe Burrow. Can you trust the weapons around him moving forward?

Taysom Hill shows up many times throughout the show as we discuss the impact he will have for your team, and maybe more importantly, how it appears he may impact some of the other members of the Saints.

Speaking of finally getting their chance, J.K. Dobbins and Jonathan Taylor finally got their chance and looked impressive in week 11.

We include Damien Harris in our talks and then determine where we’d have each of them for rest of the season. 

As we move on to WRs, it’s time to look at the Dallas WR situation and determine who we trust for the playoff run. Then, we discuss some dynasty WR rankings with some who have hit the ground running and some that have struggled in their first year. 

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Oh wow, what a week. Tennessee Titans players continue to test positive for COVID-19 and now Cam Newton and a scout QB for the Kansas City Chiefs have also tested positive. The NFL has tentatively scheduled the Chiefs-Patriots for this Tuesday, which would count towards week 4 fantasy scores. The likelihood of this game actually happening this week seems bleak at best based on reactions from insiders’ reports of player reactions that would be involved. Some players simply don’t feel comfortable. Crippling the spread of this infectious illness throughout the NFL should be the first priority. I’m not an expert, but complete postponement of this game seems like a no-brainer. The NFL should also take into account that if the Kansas City Chiefs are forced to play on Tuesday, they have to play 3 games in 10 days. That seems… dangerous.

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So far I have enjoyed the challenge of putting out a weekly start/sit article. A lot of these are foreshadowed in my weekly rankings (13th in accuracy for FantasyPros last week)! But also, writing this column has helped me take a closer look at my rankings the day after I publish them and it makes me notice that what I put out on Wednesday is far from a finished product. If you use my rankings, be sure to check back on Sunday because they will look a lot different. I love gambling on football. I’ve been doing it for years and I still have a roof over my head so I guess it’s not going too bad. I do a lot of digging from Thursday-Saturday when looking at game lines and totals and it helps find the errors in my ways from a fantasy aspect earlier in the week. If you’d like a second opinion on my start and sit options, be sure to check out Rudy’s projections each week! Now would be as good as a time as any to use that 7-day free trial. Let’s get to the plays for week 3. 

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After the week two Bloody Sunday Massacre, I knew it would be tough watching Monday Night Football this week. Anytime my man Darren Waller touched the ball I flinched in anticipation of another torn ACL or high ankle sprain. My standing Tuesday morning appointment with my fantasy football therapist, where I usually just complain about how unlucky I got in the past week’s matchups, will now be used to work thru this post traumatic fantasy stress syndrome. Fortunately, Darren Waller is one player I won’t need to cry about during that session as he destroyed the Saints’ defense with 12 catches for 103 yards and his 1st touchdown—let’s just hope he didn’t injure his back while carrying the Raiders offense. I ranked Big Sexy Waller as my #3 tight end and #36 overall in my 2020 fantasy football rankings so I’m looking pretty smart, as long as you ignore where I ranked Kerryon Johnson and a bunch of other players. Also, don’t ask why I’m required to wear a helmet around my house. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday for fantasy football:

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I have been doing a lot of thinking about week 1 and what we can trust and what we should throw away. It’s a tough thing to not trust your eyes for future projections. I guess that’s what makes sports gambling so difficult. New casinos don’t pop up from everybody winning. How does one pick who to double down on off of a blah performance? The same goes for breakout performances. How do we know it wasn’t a one-off occurrence? Instincts plays a big role. When you’ve been playing fantasy football for over a decade you pick up on trends and apply it to new situations. Another thing, I’m really excited to be writing the start/sit column every week. Yes, the title alone brings a lot of eyes, but also I want to challenge myself to put personal biases aside to try and help build lineups for you, the reader. I had a BIG whiff last week on Ben Roethlisberger. That was a failure on my part to not weigh the matchup heavier than the overall narrative that I have for him in 2020.

The results from last week weren’t bad at all outside of that misstep. Shout out to Will Fuller! Nobody outside of him really popped. Taylor, Garappolo, and Ronald Jones were fine, I suppose. Desean Jackson didn’t do diddly squat, but that’s on his QB. Everyone outside of Roethlisberger that I suggested sitting did absolutely nothing. We’re on to week 2.

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The NFL COVID opt out deadline passed last week and it was more uneventful than my high school social life. On the offensive side of the ball, we lost a handful of o-linemen and a few dart throw wide receivers, but the only big news was Chiefs running back Damien Williams taking a passing on the 2020 season. This opens the door for first round rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire to take on a much larger workload and jump into the top 10 running backs, which have been updated accordingly. As Rudy Gamble so eloquently put it, the early season CEH overdrafters are sooooo lucky! In other news, Razzball offered me a voucher for a free oil change at Cledus’s Auto Salvage if I opt of out of writing this year. Still thinking the deal over as the deadline approaches, but in the meantime, here’s my top 20 tight ends for 2020 PPR fantasy football:

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The 2020 tight end class lacks top end talent, but there were 5 players taken on day 2 which bodes well for future production. These will be my final off-season rankings now that we know landing spots and draft capital. For more background information, please check out my initial TE article for details on the players’ profiles and more of the process used to rank the position. 

The List!

Rank Movement Name Team  Draft Round
TE1 +1 Adam Trautman Saints 3
TE2 +1 Cole Kmet Bears 2
TE3 -2 Brycen Hopkins Rams 4
TE4 NR Devin Asiasi Patriots 3
TE5 NR Dalton Keene Patriots 3
TE6 +1 Colby Parkinson Seahawks 4
TE7 NR Josiah Deguara Packers 3

NOTE: There are no tiers for this list, as everyone is going to be a slow burn for fantasy relevance

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Quarantine Day 32: 

This virus is really throwing a wrench in our economy as well as our professional sports enjoyment. Have you seen the latest proposal for the 2020 Major League Baseball season? I’m not talking about that whole Arizona/Florida restructured league proposal with the 30-team playoff. The latest idea on the table is one where Elon Musk and Richard Branson fly all the baseball teams to the moon where they’ll play the entire season without gravity. Even Tim Tebow with be launching dingers into orbit.  This is especially exciting because if all goes well, rumor has it the NFL season will be played on Mars. In anticipation, Bill O’Brien just traded Deshaun Watson for a cardboard cutout of Buzz Lightyear. Anyway, I went over my top 15 dynasty tight ends last week, here’s my top 30 tight ends for 2020 PPR dynasty football: 

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