Welcome back to another Dynasty Deep Dive. Hopefully you read Rudy’s post last week regarding Vacated Targets, and how they are a big misconception among fantasy gamers. Rudy‘s math proved that there is no correlation in vacated targets and an increase in targets. This week, I’d like to apply Rudy’s theory that Vacated Targets by themselves are generally useless, and instead identify some players worth targeting based on increased Snap Share. We’re going to take that step further and see if an increased Snap Share resulted in a larger Target Share. I want to use Target Share for this because I believe it is a better indicator of how important a player is to their offense. We all know volume is king in fantasy, but Target Share will put these players within context compared to their teammates.  

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The Hall of Fame Game is over, and football is officially underway. As is the case every year, preseason games bring unlikely studs to the forefront of fantasy attention while sending others hurtling down the draft boards. It’s important not to jump to conclusions. As much as you may want Kurt Benkert after his magnificent performance, resist the temptation. I promise.

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Picture yourself in a bizarro-world casino where the gin and tonics aren’t watered down and the roulette table has more black spaces than red. After counting a few times you’re certain there are more black spaces on the wheel. You notice other gamblers are getting normal payouts for bets on black, one-to-one. The odds of winning are greater but the risk is the same as betting red. So I ask you, hypothetical gambler: why would you ever bet on red?

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I marvel at Adam Schefter, Ian Rapoport, Charles Robinson, and all the other beat writers, analysts, and experts that are just getting absolutely bombarded with information during training camp. Just consuming the influx of updates and news around the league as every organization fields its players and prepares for the oncoming season is overwhelming. It’s exciting for sure. But it’s also a lot to sort through.

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Training camp is upon us and the NFL beat writers are heating up the twitter sphere with news. This article is an attempt to cut through the noise and figure out what if anything is most important. One vital component that needs to be pointed out is that we should never be relying on beat reporters, or on-lookers to evaluate the actual talent, or what is happening during practice. Writers do just that for a living, write. A few examples of opinions/misconceptions coming into play that were grossly misguided I’ve already seen in week 1:

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As we continue through the draft rankings journey, there are a lot of names on this list that could end up being league winners for you. Any of the three Rams receivers could have an exceptional season and anyone on this list could end up with 1,200-1,300 yards and a bunch of touchdowns. The fun part is picking the right players in the draft. So let’s roll the dice and see if we can come up with some answers for your WR2-WR3 spots. 

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Your pal Zach is out this week so you have to deal with more of me. The league had a very busy day on Friday with Kareem Hunt being sent home, then being put on the commissioner’s exempt list, and then being cut by the Chiefs all together. Moral of the story, keep your hands and feet to yourself and if you fail to, own up to your mistakes. As for your opinions on what Kareem Hunt’s future should look like, I’m not interested in them.

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