The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 2
Team: Chicago Bears
Opponent: New York Giants
WR1: Allen Robinson
Shadow Coverage Match-up: James Bradberry
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
| Allen Robinson vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
| All other opponents | 22 | 5.5 | 72.4 | 0.4 | 12.4 |
| Vs. Shadow Coverage | 7 | 4.6 | 44.1 | 0.3 | 8.4 |
| Vs. James Bradberry | N/A | ||||
When reviewing Allen Robinson’s career stats vs. shadow coverage he had 2 big games and 5 duds. His big weeks came vs. notable corners Marshon Lattimore and Darius Slay where he turned 12 targets into 80 yards plus yards and a score in both. The interesting thing about the Saints game is Lattimore shut down Robinson when he covered him on 67% of his snaps, but Robinson was able to dominate in the slot which helped him finish with a strong day. The remaining 5 games Robinson struggled, failing to get to 50 yards or score in any of them.
Season Long Recommendation – Start
Last week James Bradberry didn’t shadow any Steelers WR, but with their #1 Juju being a primary slot WR that could have been why that happened. The reason for starting Robinson is he gets a ton of work inside seeing roughly 40% of his snaps in the slot. Bradberry rarely followed #1 WRs inside from his days back in Carolina, and I don’t expect that to change here. The Giants are one of the worst teams at covering the slot as we saw last week with Juju having a huge game. All this makes Robinson a start in season long leagues.
DFS – Price FD $7,000 / DK $6,400
For DFS purposes Allen Robinson is a full fade as his floor vs. shadow coverage clearly doesn’t out-weigh his ceiling. Even if he hits his ceiling of 18-19 points his price point on FD especially wont win you a week. On DraftKings (which is full PPR) Robinson is a multiplier play only as his huge target numbers should allow him to be productive enough. Overall there is just too much value with other players to justify playing Robinson as Amari Cooper vs. ATL and Calvin Ridley vs. DAL are similarly priced and offer a lot more upside.
Team: Carolina Panthers
Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR1: D.J. Moore
Shadow Coverage Match-up: Carlton Davis
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
Why reinvent the wheel right? That being said, here is a snippet from my off-season article in regards to D.J. Moore vs. shadow coverage. In 2019 D.J. Moore somehow avoided multiple match-ups vs. shadow corners. In week 3 the Panthers faced the Arizona Cardinals while Patrick Peterson was on suspension. In Week 5 the Panthers played against the Jaguars with no Jalen Ramsey. Finally, in week 12 the Saints were without Marshon Lattimore and in Week 17 Lattimore played limited snaps as the Saints had their playoff seed sealed up. Even young cornerback Carlton Davis was yet to be used in shadow coverage as the Panthers faced the Buccaneers both times early in 2019. These circumstances have led to D.J. Moore being shadowed only once in his career and that was against the New Orleans Saints without Marshon Lattimore in week 12 of 2019. In that game P.J Williams was no match for Moore as he went for 6-126-2.
Season Long Recommendation – Sit
Last week the Buccaneers secondary held Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to under 20 yards a piece. Granted Thomas got banged up in the game, but he still played 81% of snaps and saw 5 targets on the day. D.J. Moore meanwhile saw 9 targets, but only produced 4-54 vs. a Raiders secondary who doesn’t have 1 notable corner on the roster. This coupled with Robby Anderson out-producing Moore in week 1 doesn’t make it a lock that Moore will see the target volume to overcome tough match-ups.Â
DFS – Price FD $6,800 / DK $6,300
D.J. Moore is a fade across the board in every DFS format as his top 15 price tag on DK and top 20 on FD are way too rich for my blood. We will need to see Bridgewater show he can consistently sustain multiple pass catchers before we recommend Moore in a tough match-ups. Players who are priced like Moore I would pivot to include Amari Cooper vs. ATL and Marquise Brown vs. HOU.
Team: Miami Dolphins
Opponent: Buffalo Bills
WR1: Devante Parker
Shadow Coverage Match-up: Tre’Davious White
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
| Devante Parker vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Games | Rec | yards | TDs | PPG |
| All other opponents | 12 | 4.3 | 68.3 | 0.7 | 13 |
| Vs. Shadow Coverage | 4 | 5 | 95.8 | 0.3 | 13.6 |
| Vs. Tre’Davious White | 1 | 7 | 135 | 0 | 17 |
We spoke in the offseason about Parker’s success last year vs. notable shadow corners including Tre’Davious White. It is clear by his 13.6 PPG he wasn’t fazed by these match-ups. The key for Parker was his huge target numbers as he saw 11 per game in these games which helped drive his production. Now with Preston Williams back it’s fair to wonder if he can still flirt with double digit targets to help him win in these match-ups.
Season Long Recommendation – Sit
This has more to do with the injury than the match-up as Tre’Davious White did struggle last season vs. bigger WRs. However, with Parker dealing with the hamstring injury it’s tough to trust him until he finishes a full game. Last week Parker performed well in the first half securing 3-44 before leaving early with an injury, but 3 targets in the first half is a sign that those double-digit target numbers are very unlikely with him being limited.
DFS – Price FD $6,500 / DK $5,900
I think it’s safe to say if you made it this far you probably know you should fade Parker in DFS. Parker would cost you well over 10% of your budget on each sit so he doesn’t get you an injury discount or even one for a tough match-up. Notable players priced lower than Parker that I would play over him include T.Y. Hilton (hopefully 2nd time is the charm) and Michael Gallup vs. ATL.
Team: The Washington Football Team
Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
WR1: Terry McLaurin
Shadow Coverage Match-up: Patrick Peterson
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
| Terry McLaurin vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
| All other opponents | 10 | 4.2 | 70 | 0.6 | 12.7 |
| Vs. Shadow Coverage | 4 | 4 | 54.8 | 0.3 | 9 |
| Vs. Patrick Peterson | N/A | ||||
Terry McLaurin was one of the biggest surprises of the NFL season last year, and he even held his own vs. elite competition. In three of his four shadow coverage match-ups he was able to eclipse 50 yards and/or 4 receptions. For a rookie these numbers are great and heading into this season he looks to improve vs. elite corners. Last week McLaurin saw a lot of Darius Slay, but still got 5-61 on 7 targets. These numbers don’t jump off the page, but with his solid route running McLaurin is on his way to another great season
Season Long Recommendation – Sit
Patrick Peterson is truly one of the elite shadow corners in the NFL and last week he didn’t allow a single reception on 37 snaps in coverage. It took some time for him to return to form last season after his suspension, but down the stretch he shut down players like Mike Evans, Odell Beckham and D.K. Metcalf. This could be the toughest test of the season for McLaurin, but after this game a buy low window will open up for him, so he makes for a great trade target in week 3.
DFS – Price FD $6,500 / DK $5,900
Once again, each site priced Terry McLaurin as a top 24 WR. McLaurin doesn’t offer much upside as his career average of 9 PPG and high of 13.7 won’t get it done from a DFS perspective. Once again players at a similar cost that I would play over McLaurin include T.Y. Hilton and Michael Gallup.
Team: Seattle Seahawks
Opponent: New England Patriots
WR1: D.K. Metcalf
Shadow Coverage Match-up: Stephon Gilmore
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
| D.K. Metcalf vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
| All other opponents | 13 | 3.8 | 60.5 | 0.5 | 10.7 |
| Vs. Shadow Coverage | 3 | 2.7 | 38 | 0.3 | 7.1 |
| Vs. Stephon Gilmore | N/A | ||||
We caught a glimpse late in the season last year that teams started to shadow Metcalf with their best corners. Metcalf surprisingly held his own getting double digit points (10) to be exact vs. both Jalen Ramsey and James Bradberry. However, we did see his floor as he had a zero-point performance vs. Patrick Peterson in week 16. Of course, the expectation is Metcalf to make a leap in year 2, but this week will go along way to determine how far he has come.
Season Long Recommendation – Sit
Metcalf is going to have his hands full vs. the 2019 DPOY in Stephon Gilmore. Last year Gilmore held his opponents to 6.5 PPG in .5 PPR while only 3 got into double digits. Even though Metcalf saw some success last year vs. Ramsey and Bradberry it took a TD in one of those games just to get to 10 points. Overall the ceiling of Metcalf doesn’t justify his floor as even with a score he might be a WR 3 at best.
DFS – Price FD $6,500 / DK $6,000
D.K. Metcalf didn’t get a major price bump in price as he’s still a borderline WR2/3. However, in DFS you want upside and vs. Gilmore, Metcalf doesn’t have a lot of it. Metcalf’s career best 10 points vs. shadow coverage is just proof that he’s not a play this week even after his big week 1. Once again Hilton, Gallup and Marquise Brown are all cheaper and offer more upside.
Team: Detroit Lions
Opponent: Green Bay Packers
WR1: Marvin Jones
Shadow Coverage Match-up: Jaire Alexander
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
| Marvin Jones vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
| All other opponents | 18 | 4.4 | 60.7 | 0.7 | 12.6 |
| Vs. Shadow Coverage | 4 | 4.3 | 48.8 | 0.3 | 8.5 |
| Vs. Jaire Alexander | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 2.7 |
Kenny Golladay looks to be doubtful for week 2 which might be a bad thing for Jones as this means Green Bay can use their top corner Jaire Alexander on him. Marvin Jones early in his Detroit career was viewed as the primary outside weapon until Golladay emerged in 2019. Very similar to most wide receivers we do see a solid dip in production when he faces notable shadow coverage. In the four games above Jones only cleared 10 points in .5 PPR once so it’s obvious his upside is limited this week.
Season Long Recommendation – Sit
In his week 6 match-up last year vs. Alexander, Jones struggled only catching 2 passes for 17 yards. It is evident that this match-up isn’t ideal for Jones by his lack of production, but even last week he was held in check vs. the Bears. Most fantasy teams were able to grab Jones in the 7-9th round so you should have plenty of options to play over him. If you’re in a deeper league and need a flex I would prefer players like Parris Campbell and Emmanuel Sanders this week.
DFS – Price FD $6,400 / DK $5,700
The Packers are sure to put up points, but even so I am not excited to start Jones in any DFS lineup this week. Jones is priced just outside the top 24 and given his history vs. shadow coverage it will be tough to imagine him getting more than 2x value. Once again players like Hilton and Gallup are priced more affordable and have much better match-ups.
Team: Buffalo Bills
Opponent: Miami Dolphins
WR1: Stefon Diggs
Shadow Coverage Match-up: Bryon Jones and Xavien Howard
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
| Stefon Diggs vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
| All other opponents | 24 | 5.8 | 74.9 | 0.5 | 13.4 |
| Vs. Shadow Coverage | 8 | 3.8 | 53.8 | 0.5 | 10.3 |
| Vs. Miami Dolphins | N/A | ||||
Stefon Diggs’ historical production is slightly updated to include playoff games from my off-season analysis. Diggs has seen a lot of shadow coverage in the last two seasons clearing 10 points in .5 PPR 4 times in those 8 games. However, only 1 game was elite vs. Chris Harris and the Denver Broncos. Outside of that performance Diggs never went over 12 points in .5 PPR again in any of the other 7 games. Based on his historical production it is clear his upside is limited heading into week 2. Â
Season Long Recommendation – Sit
Last week Diggs saw the best of both worlds as his 9 targets came vs. a very weak Jets secondary. However, it is important to point out that those 9 targets came on a day where the Bills drop-back to pass a league high 53 times. It’s hard to image that happening again in week 2. Already dealing with a potential dip in volume this week he has a much tougher test vs. Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. Don’t chase the stat line from last week as Diggs should be viewed as nothing more than a WR3 with limited upside.
DFS – Price FD $6,800 / DK $6,500
On DK Diggs is being priced as a WR1 which means he’s completely hands off. On FD he’s more affordable, but he’s still a mid-range WR2. That being said, Diggs is just flat out hands off this week in DFS. At that price you can grab Calvin Ridley and Juju Smith-Schuster for much more upside and slightly higher cost.
What’s the best way to beat Shadow Coverage? … Quick Slants
Jalen Ramsey vs. DeSean Jackson
Ramsey could follow DeSean Jackson, but Cooper and Gallup both had some success last week. Gallup’s weak PI call stopped him from a much more productive day.
Casey Hayward vs. Tyreek Hill
Hayward has never followed Hill, but Hill hasn’t performed well Vs. LAC. In his last two full games against them, Hill has failed to reach double digit fantasy points in .5 PPR in either of them.
Darius Slay vs. Robert Woods
It looks like Darius Slay will shadow top #1s as he followed Terry McLaurin last week. The reason why Woods isn’t in the main report is he played nearly the same amount of snaps in the slot as Cooper Kupp in week 1.
Devante Adams vs. Jeff Okudah
I mean….Adams should be in all DFS lineups.
Mashon Lattimore vs. Henry Ruggs
It’s doubtful any Raiders WR has earned shadow treatment just yet, but Ruggs will see a lot of Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins on the outside.
