Have you stocked up on disposable N-95 masks, canned goods and lotion yet? Oh, you don’t think you’ll need a stockpile of lotion for what’s coming? Once I’m in self-quarantine, here’s how I picture my daily routine:
12:00 AM – 6:00 AM: Dream About Kerryon Johnson MVP season(s)
6:00 AM – 9:00 AM: Eat Pancakes
9:00 AM – 12:00 AM: Rosterbate to my Dynasty Teams
Needless to say, my lotion supply is locked and loaded. Speaking of locked and loaded, check out all of our 2020 Fantasy Football Dynasty and Rookie Rankings! I went over my top 20 dynasty running backs (full list at bottom of this post) earlier this week between visits to the lotion dealer; yes, I’m still irrationally high on Kerryon Johnson and crystal meth. Anyway, here’s my top 40 running backs for 2020 PPR dynasty football:
Tier 5 (cont’d)
21. David Montgomery – Monty is a solid young back in a good situation, just don’t think he has that elite upside. If Tarik Cohen happens to leave town after 2020 it would help Montgomery’s fantasy outlook. That said, I’m not crazy about investing in the Bears offense as long as Ryan Pace is the GM. UPDATE 4/26/20: After spending the Bears first 2020 draft pick on their 10th (not a joke) tight end, Ryan Pace failed to address the offensive line until the 7th round. It could be rough sledding for Montgomery and the Bears offense in 2020.
22. Melvin Gordon – I said a couple months back that I wouldn’t be surprised if Melvin turns out to be the type of back who ages quickly. That’s just a feeling I get. More objectively, Gordon now has over 1,000 career carries and he’s in search of a new home this off season. If he lands in a sunny destination then expect him to move up the list a bit. UPDATE 3/20/20: Gordon signed a two-year 16 million dollar with the Broncos. He’ll share carries with Phillip Lindsay with Royce Freeman likely being the odd man odd. Gordon’s days as a bellcow are over but he should still have at least a couple more years of RB2 left in him.
23. Ke’Shawn Vaughn – UPDATE 4/25/20: Yes, this is an aggressive ranking for a 3rd round rookie who wasn’t very highly touted coming into this years draft. But he landed in a great situation on a loaded offense that will score lots of points and while he won’t wow you anywhere, there aren’t any major weaknesses in his game either. The Bucs management also has no allegiance to incumbent Ronald Jones and I have an inkling that Tom Brady had at least some say in this pick. I’m all in on Vaughn.
24. Todd Gurley – I said this about the Toddfather when I ranked him #49 overall in my dynasty rankings back in December, “Todd Gurley has shown he’s still got it when McVay gives him the rock, but there’s a reason the Ram’s limited him for much of the season. It’s called old man knees. The Rams can get out of Gurley’s contract after 2021 and, considering those knees, there’s a decent chance they take the out.” UPDATE 3/20/20: After being released by the Rams, Gurley just signed a one-year 6 million dollar deal with the Falcons who have just moved on from Devonta Freeman themselves. He’s a quickly depreciating dynasty asset but one that could be very valuable to contenders in 2020 if the Falcons manage his carries properly.
25. Le’Veon Bell – The Jets also have an opt out clause with Bell after the 2020 season. Hard to imagine the Jets won’t opt out if they aren’t able to trade him before then. Le’Veon’s the type of quickly depreciating asset I’d look to sell high after a couple good games.
26. David Johnson – The music came to a halt for D.J. owners in 2019. I still think there’s some upside, and with only 781 carries, he’s fairly low mileage. But there’s no telling if and when the music will return. UPDATE 3/20/20: As the surprising centerpiece in the Hopkins trade, the Texans must have a big gig in store for their new DJ. I’m much more interest in Johnson on the Texans than the Cardinals.
27. Chris Carson – A fresh Chris Carson is a tasty piece of pizza (when he isn’t fumbling). Unfortunately, he fractured his hip late last year. Word is he’s progressing well and should be ready for the season. And Rashaad Penny likely won’t be ready off ACL surgery. So I bumped Carson up a couple spots since December. I’m monitoring his recovery closely since he isn’t able to train much while the hip heals. Also, note he’s a free agent next off season.
28. James Conner – On one hand Conner only has 363 career carries. On the other hand Benny Snell looked better than Conner at times last year. On a third hand, which is actually an arcade robot claw with french fries on the prongs, he’s a free-agent in 2021 and I never like that kind of uncertainty with RBs. Still, J.C. will be just 25 years young and should be given every opportunity to rise again in 2020, especially if Big Ben is near 100%. UPDATE 4/25/20: The Steelers have brought in another running back via the draft, spending a 4th rounder on speedster Anthony McFarland. The Pittsburgh backfield is starting to feel more and more committee-like with Conner, Benny Snell, Jaylen Samuels and now McFarland.
29. A.J. Dillon – Am I ranking him solely based on his sexy legs? Maybe. An overreaction? Possibly. But he can really get those legs moving, posting a 4.53 combine forty time at a swole 247 pounds. You can bet NFL GMs took note. UPDATE 4/25/20: Hey, hey! Looks like the Packers were just as impressed by Dillon’s legs as I was. I know this is another aggressive ranking, but they took him with their 2nd round pick and I think he’ll immediately slide into a goal line role. Jones hits free agency next year, so it might be the A.J. Dillon show up in Lambo in 2021.
30. Devin Singletary – This will be unpopular; everyone loves Singletary right now. I gave you my Devin Singletary Dynasty Outlook a few weeks back. Cliff Notes: I like his situation quite a bit if the Bills don’t add another legitimate threat to his workload, but I’m concerned they will. UPDATE 4/25/20: As expected (by Donkey) the Bills are bringing in another running back in 3rd rounder Zach Moss. This will be a committee with Moss likely stealing all the goal line work. But this expectation was already baked into Singletary’s previous ranking, so no change. I hope you sold Singletary high when you had the chance this winter.
31. Phillip Lindsay – I find myself wondering if this is too low for Lindsay. All he’s done since coming into the league as an undrafted free-agent is post 17 touchdowns and two 1,000 yard rushing seasons. That said, Lindsay’s a free-agent next off season and Royce Freeman garnered a lot more work in the 2019 pass game. I won’t be surprised if Freeman’s even more of a factor in 2020. UPDATE 3/20/20: Melvin Gordon’s arrival is a wet blanket on the Lindsay love. He’ll still be a major part of the offense but Melvin is much more of a threat than Freeman. Expect Gordon to take all the goal line work.
32. Zack Moss – Here’s what our man Alfred (better known as BOOF) said about Moss in his top 15 rookie running back rankings, “will probably be a polarizing prospect throughout the process. I like his overall profile as an early producer who maintained backfield equity throughout his career. He was also more involved in the passing game than you probably think. The word is he doesn’t pop with burst on film but his career yards per touch is on par with any NFL prospect at 6.1. Since I’m not that familiar with his tape, Moss’ athleticism remains a question. If he can’t get a forty time to meet the HaSS threshold or just otherwise tests slow, I think he’d be knocked out of a 3rd round selection and this ranking will suffer.” Well he ran a 4.65 forty which is yuck, but BOOF is holding strong with him as his #5 RB draft prospect; I moved Freight Train Dillon ahead. Like with any rookie RB, everything depends on where the Moss grows. UPDATE 4/25/20: Moss was just taken in the 3rd round by the Bills. He should bulldoze his way into a committee and takeover the goal line role in short order. If he can stay healthy, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we’re ranking Moss ahead of Singletary come next offseason.
33. Sony Michel – I’m a big fan of Sony Michel the player, not a big fan of the Sony Michel situation. Patriots running backs just aren’t for me. Michel is lost in the Belichick Bermuda Triangle for at least two more seasons. I’d be open to selling if there’s a believer in your league. UPDATE 4/25/20: Belichick’s dog didn’t draft another running back which is a positive for Michels outlooks. Still hard to be excited about any back in New England these days. Oh, Tom Brady’s also out of town. I don’t think that’s positive but who knows.
34. Jordan Howard – People keep doubting JHow and JHow keeps piling carries and posting numbers. It feels like he’s been around for ages but he’ll only be 25 this year. If he lands in a decent situation this offseason then he’ll easily move into my top 40. UPDATE 3/20/20: Howard has signed with the Dolphins on a two-year 10-million dollar deal. It’s not a great offense but he’s currently the only game in town. There’s rampant speculation that the Fins will still grab D’Andre Swift or another elite prospect at the draft next month, so let’s wait and see. UPDATE 4/25/20: The Dolphins did not take a running back at the draft but they did trade for Matt Breida in exchange for a 5th round pick. This was pretty much best case scenario for Howards fantasy stock. He’ll be in a committee but at least Swift isn’t swooping in to steal the show.
35. Kareem Hunt – You can’t deny Hunt’s talent, but he sure seems like a ticking time bomb. I’m tempted to drop him down even further after watching the video of his traffic stop in January where the officer found weed and an open container of vodka in his car, and Hunt admits he’d fail a drug test if he was tested that day. Maybe next time he won’t be pulled over by a Browns fan.
36. Mark Ingram – Situation is the most important piece of the puzzle for running backs, sometimes even more important than actual talent. How many running backs have found themselves in two better landing spots than Ingram? First in a high-powered offense lead by Drew Brees, then working along side phenom Lamar Jackson. The career carries are piling up but he has two more years in the Ravens offense which should be golden. If you’re in you’re contention window then he’s worth a premium. UPDATE 4/25/20: J.K. Dobbins is riding into town which could spell the beginning of the end for Ingram. I don’t think he’ll disappear immediately, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Ravens exercise their option to walk away from the final year on his contract this offseason.
37. Marlon Mack – Another player approaching free agency in 2021 which could drastically affect his long-term dynasty outlook. Short-term, his workload in Indy feels relatively secure but it’d be nice to see him utilized a little more in the passing game where he’s only averaged 15.5 receptions for 92.5 yards over the past two seasons. UPDATE 4/25/20: Jonathan Taylor’s 2nd round selection just drove a stake thru the heart of Mack’s dynasty value.
38. Derrius Guice – With each injury it becomes less and less likely that Guice ever delivers on his massive upside. But if you’re looking for a buy-low upside gamble, here’s your man. UPDATE 4/25/20: The Redskins have spent a 3rd round draft pick to bring in RB/WR Swiss army knife Antonio Gibson. He isn’t a threat to take the lions share of the carries in Washington so Guice’s value remains unchanged and contingent on health.
39. Darrell Henderson – I’ll admit it, I loved Henderson coming into last season. Really seemed like the writing was on the wall. The Rams traded up to take this kid—a versatile weapon—and Gurley’s knees were being held together by play-doh. But I haven’t given up on the youngster yet, his star may still shine in Hollywood. UPDATE 3/20/20: Gurley has been release, opening up a golden opportunity for Henderson out in Los Angeles. Let’s see what the Rams do at the draft before we get too excited. UPDATE 4/25/20: Cam Akers has arrived to crash the Henderson party. I’m not ready to fully write Hendy off yet but the Rams just spent a 2nd rounder on Akers. Most likely the versatile Henderson will be used for change of pace purposes and gadget plays. Don’t forget, boring Malcolm Brown is still in the mix.
40. Alexander Mattison – When given the opportunity, Mattison flashed during his rookie season. Dalvin Cook is a free agent after 2020. There’s no guarantees here, but if Mattison is given a crack at the Vikings lead-back role then RB1 numbers are well within the realm of possibilities.