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During a football draft one year, we hit round six and I made the quote: “Here’s where it gets interesting, yet boring.” Seven years later, I still hear about it. But what those silly fools I play with don’t understand is that the statement’s not that Johnny Bananas in reality. Sure, everyone and their mom (mom’s don’t play fantasy football…they have Pinterest…) knows the names of the first few rounds, and you should all know to wait for upside, defenses and kickers for the final rounds, but what about the clusterf*ck in the middle? It can be a big pile of I don’t knows, wild guesses, and ESPN says he’s ranked 50th overall!!!’s. So let’s sort through the trash like Scrooge McDuck diving into his treasure room of gold coins and mine those players for the middle rounds to find some overrated hype, underrated targets, and the sleepiest of sleepers…

[graphiq id=”jvQAmyIJf5r” title=”Jeremy Maclin Overview” width=”640″ height=”548″ url=”https://w.graphiq.com/w/jvQAmyIJf5r” link=”http://football-players.pointafter.com/l/12837/Jeremy-Maclin” link_text=”Jeremy Maclin Overview | PointAfter”]

Do I like Jeremy Maclin? Sure. Have I targeted him for a few of my teams? Well, yes. But let’s go back to that top paragraph and focus on the ridiculousness some people will have in justifying their picks, ‘Welp, ESPN says he’s #50 so he must be offing good!’ Exactly. You keep relying on ESPN rankings, I’ll keep winning leagues. According to FantasyPros current ADP, jeremy marlin comes in right on the button at #50. As a result, he most likely won’t be on any of my teams. Why, you ask? Oh, wow…great question!

There are many things in Maclin’s favor: 1) He’s the top option in a 1-WR style offense, 2) He’s proven over a few years he’s capable of big plays and big games, C) He has a penchant for the end zone, as he showed by scoring six touchdowns in his final six games in 2015, and 8) Maclin topped 1000 yards as a Chief. Really, the final point is all we need to see how good he really is, but is he truly worthy of a Top 50 pick? That’s borderline 4th round in 12-team leagues. Ugh. Cue the constipated/frustrated face. Here’s why I see Maclin as Overrated Hype…

Alex Smith.

Haha, seriously. I could end the article there. I won’t, because there are a few more reasons, but that’s enough. Sure, he’s a competent NFL QB, but he’s the most forgotten and underwhelming consistent starting QB in fantasy football, and all the Andy Reid schemes be damned…he’s not amassing for 3500 yards, let alone 4000. He just set a career high of 3486 last season, and I don’t see many reason why that will climb in 2016. Jamaal Charles is back and healthy, meaning Maclin’s touches could go down. And when I say go down, I mean his streak to end the 2015 season is highly unlikely to happen again this year. Once Charles was out, Maclin’s production increased. Healthy Charles = decreased Maclin production. It’s simple math. He’s a safe option to reach 1000 yards, but his ceiling is massively limited due to his situation. That 1318 yard season in 2014 for Philly with 10 TDs will not be replicated. Hell, he was on pace for only 4 TDs before late Week 10.

If you’re looking for a comp to project Maclin’s 2016 season, go back four years, not either of the past two (he was injured for 2013). In 2012 for Philly Maclin had only two less targets than for Kansas City in 2015, yet had 18 more catches and 231 more yards. Bring that back to the mean, like his YPC did (12.4 in 2012, 15.5 in 2014, 12.5 in 2015), and we’re looking at a 75/950/7 WR. And that, my friends, is not Top 50. Instead, give me the underrated Eric Decker (whoops…gave that one away), Michael Floyd, or Donte Moncrief who are all rated below Maclin. If he falls to the 7th round, snag him. But he won’t. Because he’s overrated. Top 50?

4JrY8

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  1. questioningreader says:
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    According to the FantasyRundown.com combined sheet it shows ESPN with Maclin at 43rd overall and the Razzball ranking at 34th overall?

    • @questioningreader: At the time of composing the article he was ranked #50 on ESPN. Either way, a jump up to #43 is even worse, in my opinion. And this my opinion, not the opinion of Jay and Tehol who primarily create the rankings for Razzball.

      Where would you place him?

  2. Yeti says:
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    I’m surprised you referenced ESPN, because they have him significantly lower than most “experts.” If you average the top 10 overall draft rankers last year, Maclin is ranked #34 overall. You change that to average out the top 20 overall draft rankers, Maclin is #35 overall.

    • @Yeti: Are you pulling from FantasyPros? Or from ESPN? In their consensus rankings he was #50 overall at the time I composed this. Either way, I’m not going near him at #34, #35, or #55. I, personally, will avoid him as I think he’s overrated…

      Thanks for the comment! Where would you rank him?

      • Yr never too old for balloons says:
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        @[email protected]: damn odd he’s climbed that much in a few days.

        • @Yr never too old for balloons: Yeah, and I’ve yet to see him that high anywhere. In FantasyPros he’s still late 40s and ESPN he’s still just 42. He’s a very safe option, just not someone I’m taking that high.

  3. Johnny Hammersticks says:
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    Need some sage trade advice after my auction draft.

    .5 PPR

    Would you:
    Get-
    Landry, Hurns and DeAndre Washington
    And give up:
    Keenan Allen and James White?

    Here’s my squad:

    Brees

    Latavius Murray (cuff)
    Gore
    Sproles
    Woodhead
    James White

    AJ Green
    ARob (cuff)
    Gordon
    Kevin white
    Moncrief
    Marvin Jones

    Ertz
    Rams D

    • @Johnny Hammersticks: First, I don’t subscribe to the value of handcuffs very often. Like Jay, the only way I’m taking one is when there’s the potential of them actually getting starting reps. And only RB…Hurns isn’t a handcuff, he’s a legit WR3 with WR2 upside.

      So, here’s my thought…I’d probably do this. Landry is a half step below Keenan, but Hurns is a few tiers above White in a .5PPR. Do you need two WR? I don’t think so with AJ, ARob and four big time wild cards, but in terms of total value you’re getting better. Adding Washington could have a big payoff, too, but White’s the better current option. The nice part, though, is that by Week 4 that could easily be flipped. And Sproles is the one to drop.

      I’d do the trade, and then attempt to flip one of your WR for a better RB option. I wouldn’t feel comfortable going into the year with Latavius, Gore and Woodhead as your 1/2/3. Try trading a Moncrief or White for someone like Gio Bernard or Duke Johnson.

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