First, let’s get the business for Week 5 out, and the first order of business to remember is that Week 5 begins the bye weeks in the NFL. The following defenses will be unavailable because they are on a bye: the Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Plan accordingly.
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And second is the obvious fact that a team’s poor offense can sabotage a good defense (yes, I am looking at you, Matt Canada), and a bad defensive coordinator can kill a resurging offense (uh huh, you’re up, Matt Eberflus). Now that that rant is over let’s get down to business.
Now, last week, there were some good, a little bad, and some absolutely ugly things that must be atoned for, and I am not just speaking for myself (again, it’s you, Canada!)! The good was a softball, but I will take it. Playing Russell Wilson or Justin Fields did not hurt you, although Fields was the better choice. Fields finished as QB3 with 28.9 fantasy points. Ole reliable Wilson finished as QB9 with 22.2 points. Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen was the only quarterback to break the 30-point barrier. Allen finished as QB1 with 36.5 fantasy points against the Miami Dolphins defense.
The bad was Alexander Mattison against the Carolina Panthers’ defense. Although Mattison finished with 95 rushing yards on 17 carries, he only finished as RB17 in standard fantasy leagues and RB20 in PPR. Mattison’s one target was brutal, but then again, he is not out there for his receiving prowess. Unsurprisingly, Christian McCaffrey, the San Francisco 49ers’ weapon of choice, blew the hinges off the running back stats with 48.7 fantasy points in standard leagues and 41.7 fantasy points in PPR against the Arizona Cardinals defense. The Cardinals’ defense is the same defense that allowed Dallas Cowboys’ Tony Pollard to amass 122 rushing yards and average 5.3 yards per carry the week prior. Spoiler Alert: the Cardinals’ defense play Joe Mixon and the reeling Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5.
The ugly is the tight end position. Washington’s Logan Thomas was healthy. He did play. But he finished as TE21 in PPR fantasy leagues and TE20 in standard. It was ugly, uncalled for, and completely unnecessary for me to suggest Thomas. It is clear that you start wide receivers against the Eagles’ defense! UGH!
Now, what defenses are we attacking in Week 5?
Week 5: Defenses to Attack for Your Fantasy Wins
Defenses to Attack with the Quarterback
Daniel Jones, New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins, 49.5 o/u, Miami -11
I know you are still reeling from the Monday Night fiasco. The one where Jones was running for his life to no avail. The one where Jones was sacked 10 times had two interceptions and two fumbles.
Jones made it out with his life but finished as QB24 with 10.7 fantasy points. And if we are being honest, he hasn’t had a great four weeks. From his seven sacks, two interceptions, and two fumbles in Week 1 against the Cowboys, he did bounce back the next week against the Arizona Cardinals. But “bounce back” is relative. Jones did have two passing touchdowns with 321 passing yards. But he was also sacked three times with one interception. For our purposes, he did finish as QB1 in fantasy with 31.7 fantasy points.
And that brings us to Week 5 and the Miami Dolphins defense. In Week 4, the Dolphins defense recently allowed Josh Allen to pass for 320 yards and four touchdowns. Allen also had a rushing touchdown.
The Dolphins defense have given up an average of 19.6 fantasy points per game and 27 passing touchdowns. And the best part (well, as good as we can hope) is Jones’ rushing ability. In four weeks, he has averaged 5.1 rushing yards (yes, I hear the cynics that some designed runs, it’s Jones’ running for his life), but if we are being perfectly honest as fantasy players do, we care how he comes about his rushing totals.
The Dolphins have nine total sacks. They sacked Mac Jones four times and Justin Herbert three times, neither as mobile as Jones. In addition to the two sacks on Allen, they sacked Russell Wilson once. Wilson also managed to throw for 302 yards and a touchdown (and an interception) against the Dolphins’ defense.
Jones will roll into Week 5 as QB24. His fantasy totals are 6.5, 31.7, 5, and 10.7. The lowest fantasy output against the Dolphins was Mac Jones in Week 2. He scored 14.7 fantasy points.
The predictive total for this game is 49.5, with the Dolphins an 11-point favorite. Jones and the Giants will have to keep up. With Jones’ rushing ability and the Dolphins having already given up 525 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns to the quarterback position, attack the Dolphins’ defense with Jones this week.
Defenses to Attack with the Running Back
Breece Hall, New York Jets @ Denver Broncos, 43.5 o/u, Denver -1.5
This game is rightly called “The Nathaniel Hackett Bowl,” and I am here for it. Hall has been less than his draft capital. He has 14.7, 0.9, 2.7, and 6.9 fantasy points in four weeks. But now, in a game that we have to believe the Jets have circled since preseason, Hall gets a defense allowing 176 rushing yards per game. That is the most by 19 yards.
Khalil Herbert just rushed for 103 yards, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert torched them, Achane for 203 yards and Mostert for four total touchdowns. The Broncos are giving away an average of 18.2 fantasy points to the running back position.
While Dalvin Cook out-snapped Hall 50-31% in Week 1, last week Hall out-snapped Cook 44-25%. There is a chance that both Hall and Cook get theirs. Hall has the most opportunity.
These are the two bottom teams in plays per game. The Jets are averaging 54.3 (32nd), and the Broncos, averaging 56.8 (31st) plays per game. The Jets’ defense is billed as superior, but they allow 148 rushing yards (18th) and 215.6 passing yards (16th) per game.
All cards are on the table; I’m unsure what to expect Sunday. Come for the unexpected and stay for the post-game handshake. Attack the Broncos’ defense with the Jets’ run game, specifically Hall. Ahh, what a time to miss Aaron Rodgers.
Defenses to Attack with the Wide Receiver
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts v Tennessee Titans, 43.5 o/u, Indianapolis -1.0
The Colts attempt 35.3 passing attempts per game (11th). Pittman is seventh in total targets heading into Week 5. He has been on the field for no less than 95% of the offensive snaps. Except for last week, Pittman has not had less than 11 targets per game. That is a 28.7 % target share and a 26.8% target rate in four weeks.
Tennessee is giving up an average of 25.9 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. Per slot versus wide, 74% of the fantasy points go to the out receiver. Pittman plays the majority of his snaps right wide.
This is Anthony Richardson’s world; we are all just living in it. Attack the Titans with Richardson and Pittman.
Defenses to Attack with the Tight End
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons, 41.5 o/u, Atlanta -2.0
This is curious: the Atlanta Falcons are favored over the red-hot Houston Texans. The Falcons allow 9.4 fantasy points per game to the tight end position.
The Arizona Cardinals allow 10.9 fantasy points per game to the tight end position. The only problem is that the Cardinals are playing the Cincinnati Bengals. That would be Tanner Hudson and Joe Burrow if you have faith.
Razzball, come for the fantasy data. Stay for the fantasy wins. Ask me @gladysLtyler questions, preferably fantasy football-related. Good Luck!
