So, uh, how about them Bucs? One of the great discussions of sports fandom is: “When do you walk away from the game.” Eli Manning walked away in 2019 at the age of 38; his big brother Peyton left the NFL in 2015 at the age of 39. Big Ben? 39. Drew Brees? 41. You can see a trend here. At a certain point, there’s a point where “the magic” isn’t there anymore.
This week, we watched 45-year-old Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose to the Carolina Panthers, a team that has fired its head coach and is in the process of trading away every player of any seeming value for draft picks. At the same time, we watched 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers let the Washington Commanders go on a 23-0 run and hold the lead. Taylor Heinicke beat Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady has been beaten by Mitch Trubisky and P.J. Walker in consecutive weeks.
I’m not here to bury Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers — there are greater sportswriters who will write that eulogy. But part of the job for statistical crunchers is to, at the very least, to serve as a sort of analytical mortician. We tell you when a player is statistically “coming back to life” or “ready for the grave.” It’s never easy to say that the greats — and perhaps the greatest in Tom Brady — are done, especially for your fantasy team. But I’ve checked the stats, made a list, and contacted the ancestors via my ouija board. None of the news is good.
Here I am not to eulogize your childhood idols, but to write about D’Onta Foreman, Idolslayer.
Also, don’t forget to check out the Fantasy Besties on Monday night, 7:15PM Eastern, as they recap Week 7 and get you ready for Monday Night Football between the [checks notes] Patriots and Bears. Yuck. Yuck to the matchup, not the Besties.
Quick Hits
Name | Fun Stat | Notes |
---|---|---|
D’Onta Foreman | 145 all-purpose yards on 17 touches | We told you to add him, but nobody expected this. |
D.J. Moore | 7 catches, 69 yards, 1 TD | Was this the “proof of life” for the trade market? |
Joe Burrow | 481 passing yards, 3 TDs | Give him a cigar |
Marcus Mariota | 124 yards passing, 8 completions | How do you lose by 3 touchdowns and complete 8 passes? |
Jamaal Williams | 79 rushing yards | D’Andre Swift decided not to play and let this guy take his job |
Kalif Raymond | 5 catches, 75 yards | The Lions WR we all saw coming, right? |
Josh Jacobs | 143 rush yards, 3 TDs | Remember when y’all thought he wasn’t gonna make the team? |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 rec, 111 yards | It’s not the number of catches, it’s how you use them. |
The Buccaneers: Imagine it’s August 2022: The Queen is still alive and Boris Johnson is Prime Minister. You can still buy a house. You’re reading some tripe I wrote about a hip-hop producer on a fantasy football site, or you’re still thinking about my Vecna post over on the baseball side. You go into your fantasy football draft, and you leave with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, and Tom Brady. Heck, you might even have drafted Julio Jones and Russell Gage for good measure. FantasyPros gives you the A++++ grade for your draft and you’re celebrating by watching Alien vs Predator for the 6th time this week. Take a break — you deserve it! Might as well put that team on autopilot because you’re going 17-0 on your way to a tiny trophy that Chris from Engineering bought off of Etsy. You won the draft, right? [stares at Anakin Skywalker] RIGHT? Well, nobody saw P.J. Walker, D’Onta Foreman, Chuba Hubbard, and D.J. Moore coming. The Panthers are tanking. They fired their coach. They traded their star running back. They benched their QB. They’re trying to trade off their other stars. The Panthers were 2 touchdown underdogs to the Bucs. At the end of the day, the Panthers won by 18. Yeesh. Brady and Evans put up acceptable games for fantasy managers, but who knows what’s in store for the Bucs after this. Maybe they start their own rebuild? I’m just vibing here. Best of luck to those of you who are rolling with the Bucs — they gotta get better, right?
The Packers: Every joke from the above blurb down here, but replace it with “Aaron Rodgers.” For as troubled as the Panthers have been, the Commanders have been equally strife-ridden. Commanders head coach Ron Rivera publicly criticized QB Carson Wentz as the main problem with the team and then labored through a Thursday Night Football game that many people considered one of the worst football games in the modern era. The Commanders have an RB coming back from two gunshot wounds, a TE and WR2 coming back from season-long injuries, and a backup quarterback…and they beat a fully-healthy Green Bay Packers. Taylor Heinicke, a guy who had left the NFL and professional football entirely, beat Aaron Rodgers. Yeeesh. I wrote about the Packers’ puzzling usage of their running backs last week, and it was a similarly “useless” week. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combined for 12 rushes, although Jones was the heroic receiver of the day with 9 catches for 53 yards and 2 TDs, including a late-game TD that made the game seem reasonably close. Even great teams struggle, but the Packers are daggering fantasy seasons this year.
Jonathan Taylor: 10 rushes for 58 yards and 7(!) receptions on 8 targets. He’s back, he’s healthy, and the usage next week could be incredible.
Parris Campbell: 10 receptions for 70 yards and a TD. Matt Ryan seemingly has a different top receiver each week, and Campbell happened to be there this week. Campbell was a consensus “do not start unless you’re in a 15-team league,” but we can probably think about changing that designation this week. Over the past week, Campbell has 23 targets, but has amassed only 120ish yards on all of those targets. If you’re in PPR, you care less about those yards than I care about the Jaguars because you’re still scoring points.
Robert Woods: Who cares about the stats, but I keep fielding questions about this guy. The mummified corpse of Ryan Tannehill is no longer the QB he once was, and Woods has basically been a WR4-5 throughout this season. Against the Colts, Derrick Henry nearly ran for as many yards as Tannehill threw. Yeesh. Woods is a drop in all but the deepest leagues.
Gus Edwards: 16 rush attempts, 66 yards, 2 TDs. Told you to add! The Gus Bus wasn’t expected to play this week, but he got emergently added to the active roster on Saturday, and fantasy managers who were bold enough to give him the nod were rewarded with a 2 TD performance. Remember Kenyan Drake? 11 rushes for 5 yards, and he turned back into the pumpkin we all knew he was. It’s Gus going forward.
James Robinson: I hate being right. I mean, the thing about being a fantasy analyst is that you work in likelihood. Any analyst who tells you anything as a “sure thing” is lying or just dumb. This is the power of narrative in fantasy sports: it didn’t make sense for JRob to get so much play. The only reason that made sense for JRob’s feature role in the Jag’s backfield was that the team gave Travis Etienne increased time to recover and learn the playbook. After we watched Etienne and JRob split carries for a few weeks, we saw the statistical teeter-totter angle to Etienne’s favor this week. Sure, there was coach speak after the game about “We need to evaluate James Robinson for injuries” and such, but it was pretty vague and JRob didn’t have an injury designation going into the game. Also, he probably didn’t get hurt during the game because he got [checks notes] no carries. Yeah, Zay Jones and Christian Kirk got more carries than JRob. Melvin Gordon in that game where he found himself carrying Latavius Murray‘s sweat towel got more carries. So long and thanks for all the fish JRob. Fantasy managers, you can let him go unless we hear about a trade this week.
Dak Prescott: He’s back, but we kind of knew to temper expectations. 207 passing yards and a TD, which is fantasy blah. A fully healed Dak will be better in the second half, but we’ll take the playing time for now.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Ruled out with a concussion on his first touch of the game. There’s a lot of concern about how the NFL has handled concussion protocols since the Tua incident. Well, given that 99% of the brains examined in the CTE study showed damage, and we’re still grieving over the Aaron Gonzalez and Junior Seau incidents — and actively living through the Antonio Brown drama — I really don’t give a flying frack if we have to bench all of our stars. I’d rather have ARSB telling us wild stories about his dad in 15 years than worry about if I made the right start in my fantasy league. Stay tuned to our weekly injury report to see if ARSB will miss time.
Josh Jacobs: Guy has nearly 450 yards and 6 TDs over his past three games, to go along with a pretty acceptable passing game statline. Flash backwards to the pre-season when just about every tout was telling you to skip Jacobs because he [checks notes] started in the Hall of Fame game. So wait…the guy played and we’re punishing him? What the hell kind of analysis is that? You know what Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers got for skipping the pre-season? [points up to the top of the article]. Whatever. If you read my pre-season article about drafting Jacobs and then followed through, congrats to you. And to me. [pats self on…you imagine that for yourself]
Kenneth Walker III: 168 yards and 2 TDs and defenses still can’t figure out what to do with him. Seattle has quietly put up stunning numbers since the departure of Russell Wilson, and despite the season-ending injury to RB1 Rashaad Penny, KW3 has kept the team balanced in the run game. Unfortunately, DK Metcalf left the field with a knee injury and didn’t return to the game, meaning guys like Walker will have to carry more of the football burden. What am I, John Steinbeck? ENYWHEY. Walker’s clearly got “that dawg” in him, and a couple more performances like this would make him a top RB selection in the 2023 draft.
Christian McCaffrey: 10 touches and 60ish yards as the 49ers had to turn to the air game to try and keep up with the Chiefs. You’ll see more of him next week, yatta yatta.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: I hadn’t written this guy’s name all year and he looked like his career was foundering in Kansas City. But! And it’s a me-after-collecting-all-the-McDonald’s-Halloween-Happy-Meal-Pail-sized-but – – JJSS has two 120+ yard games in a row to go with 2 TDs. He’s played in 7 games, and in 5 of those games, he has 8 targets. It’s like the Ju-Ju Ratio! So, Mahomes and JJSS are clicking now, and if you’ve been benching him, it’s time to make like Windows 95 and start him up.
Mecole Hardman: 6 touches, 3 touchdowns. 50% touchdown rate! Touchdowns are highly variable. Hardman never had a rushing touchdown before today, and had 4 combined touchdowns over the past two years until today. Sometimes, a game planner like Andy Reid makes the magic happen. David Blaine, I believe in you too! No real need to add Hardman unless you’re in a deep league.
Courtland Sutton: 9 targets, 3 catches. Of course, Brett Rypien stepped valiantly into the fray and outperformed Zach Wilson. Like, how bad can the Jets get? Oh, at least Wilson has learned to just dump it to a nearby receiver and get those coveted Wins. I mean, what am I supposed to say here about Sutton — wait until Russ comes back? I’m glad Russ cashed in on the contract and the endorsements early. Sutton, meanwhile, he’s gotta live with [waves hands around] whatever this is in Denver.
Breece Hall: Feared ACL tear. Darkest timeline confirmed.
Dare Ogunbowale: If you’re a Razzball lifer, you’ll remember our love for Ogunbowale. I drafted him everywhere in 2020. Too bad he’s not actually good. But! 5 receptions for 50+ yards and a carry in Week 7. We can at least laugh about that together. HAHAHA [slaps you on the back] WE’RE LAUGHING AND GOOD TIMES.
All right — how are your teams faring? Are you excited for Monday Night Football between the Bears and Patriots? Yeesh. I’ll just watch the Fantasy Besties recap everything on Monday Night at 7:15 PM on the Razzball YouTube channel. Everybody else — I’ll see you for the injury recap next week. Peace!
Awesome write up EB. Do you think that Foreman and Gus bus can keep this same energy moving forward? I don’t expect these guys to put up 20+ points each week, but are these two solidified fantasy options moving forward or is now a good time to sell high?
Thanks for the support! They’ve each shown nice flashes in the past, so they’re basically in the “Kenneth Walker” group — or, “Wow we love the potential but will this actually happen on a consistent basis.”
The upside on Gus is that he’s one of the top 20 highest paid RBs in the league. I know, right? So, Gus is basically destined to keep an RB1 profile in a run-first offense, and Dobbins probably won’t be back until the fantasy playoffs at the earliest. So, Gus is a keep.
Foreman is the 1A RB on a tanking team that has no identity. Chuba Hubbard behind him is supposed to be “the guy” but who knows if that’ll actually happen. So, it’s fine to trade high on Foreman — he’s the tougher sell, though. I’d be happy getting any usable RB or a WR2 out of Foreman. That’d be some pretty good salesmanship. :) Good luck!
Gallop
Micael Gallop, he’s a large man with above average receiver ability.
He’s lost.
Nobody can seem to locate him, and his fantasy football managers are getting concerned. Please alert Dak Prescott if you locate him.
I’m sending out the Dak signal, but all I get are villains and no superhero…
While Mariota only completed 8 passes. How do you only throw 13 when trailing the whole [email protected] game? Pitts and London are both dead to me. I can’t believe I am saying this, but their situation is actually getting worse. This was a perfect game script for them and Smith still refused to throw. I have bye weeks coming and I am thinking of cutting pitts. Why should I keep him? I can’t use him. The only chance he has is if Smith gets fired. I honestly don’t know how he can go to work today and keep his job. I get running when you have a lead, but how can he justify not trying to get back in the game / trying to win?
Yeah, and the weirdest thing is, of course — Arthur Smith made all these great pass-catching TE! Pitts was (comparatively) great in 2021!
It’s kinda like you get your first job, do some good things, and then go to a seminar where the snake oil salesman says, “Establish the run.” And instead of stealing extra donuts on your way out, you’re thinking, “Maybe I should establish the run…”
There goes my hero…
So would you cut pitts in a 10 team, .5 ppr league?
If we look at current stats, he’s droppable.
If we look at the full projection, he’s going to get better, but the question is whether it’ll be in a meaningful time frame for your team. If you’ve got a useable backup TE, keep pitts on the bench. If you’ve got a usable WW option and no backup, swap out Pitts for the other.
It’s basically a Robbie Ray situation— it’s not like Pitts is getting zero usage in the NFL, but we just need to determine the timeline we can suffer through until he’s fantasy relevant again.
Ok EB I have a few guys I want to drop but just need some assurances. Team is PPR, 2-5 and desperate. My first 3 picks were Najee Harris, Swift and Pitts.. I just vomited a little in my mouth. Are you ok with dropping Doubs, Renfroe, and or Curtis Samuel? I wanted to drop one yesterday for Gus but got scared. Now I won’t get him due to claim order. So I know a lot depends on who your adding but are any of those 3 guys MUST HOLDS? Thanks for the help man.
Yeah Doubs is a fine drop and the first guy I would target — A Rog is finicky with his receivers even when he’s playing well, and Doubs seems to be pretty volatile
Renfrow and Samuel are kind of tied — Renfrow struggling after his fumbles/concussions, and Samuel has one of the worse QB situations in the league. You can stream either — I think Renfrow would be easier to pickup again if he gets hot though. Good luck!
Great stuff Blair !! 14 teamer … .5 PPR…. I’m about to be 5-2 …
was just offered Cupp and Pitts for my Kelce and ARSB ….
i play this same owner this upcoming week… leaving him no Kelce if I did this
my 3 WRs would be Cupp/Chase/Hopkins
whatya think ??
Tough one! Statistically, the Kupp/Pitts side wins. This trade is slightly higher risk than I would personally like, but if you’re fine with the Falcons pass game figuring itself out somehow, then you should go forward with the trade. If Pitts regresses to even .75% of his expectation, your team will be really tough to beat in the playoffs. Good luck!
Appreciate your stuff EWB! 10-team, 0.5 PPR, 6-1
The Good news:
RBs: A Jones, Miles S, Walker III and Rhamondre, Rachaad W
WRs: Dionte J, G Wilson, D London, Dotson TE: Andrews
The Bad News: Lost to injury – Breece, M Williams and Njoku!!
I’m last on the waiver so I’ll miss out on the top adds this week. Who would be some underappreciated RBs or WRs to add some depth and upside.
Available FAs: RBs Edwards, Carter, Hubbard, Foreman, Gibson, Herbert
WRs: Collins, Renfrow, Pickens, Parris C
Thanks in advance!
The good thing is there are a lot of FA! Absolutely target Gus and Carter — Carter was a flex finisher last year on an awful team. If you get any of the other guys, it’s just gravy.
For WR I’d start with Pickens, and maybe Campbell as #2 because the colts will be switching up QBs — who knows, maybe there’s some magic there.
Oh, just came across the wire that jets are trading for JRob.
If somebody dropped JRob, there’s your goal. Carter now becomes just another guy.
PPR, 0.5 points. I’m in first overall at (soon to be 6-1), but just lost Njoku
I own the top waiver grab. Been holding onto it for something I either really need or a big time RB/WR opportunity (all of the ones for week 8 are already owned.
Tyler Higbee was dropped for his bye and is a FA. Is it worth wasting my top waiver grab on a TE? Guys like Knox, Henry, Dissly and Conklin are prob the other most appealing names still out there as well, but they don’t feel worth using a waiver claim on.
I know there are more targets soon coming back to take away from Higbee, but he feels like he may be worth it. Thoughts?
Allen
Chase
Lockett
Najee
Fournette
(TE needed)
McLaurin/Swift/Pollard for flex
Buf D
Tyler Bass
Other bench guys are Mattison and Bateman, Carr.
Ya know, I was once the “Great WW#1 holder.” Held it for a year in a 16-team home league with some actual touts in it. Justin Morneau was dropped after the concussion thing. I thought — THIS IS MY MOMENT. Yeah, it never really happened. I dunno, I’ve since learned to live with variance, and I eschew that WW#1 spot lol.
All that to say — TE are particularly a dead zone. I’d feel fine streaming, because I’d prefer to be in WW#1 zone for an RB for the playoff run. Higbee is like, meh. He’s TE 10 on the season, but some of those weeks he was boosted because literally no TE action happened. So, I wouldn’t WW#1 on Higbee — who knows, you may even get him for FA cost. Good luck!
Thanks EWB!
I figured him or Knox are my two go TE targets to snag. I feel THE SAME way about this using this on Higbee, but it made sense in my brain.
Appreciate your feedback as always (baseball and Football haha Get in on Hockey next lol)
Unrelated, I won my first dynasty baseball ship this year (third year in a row in the ship, finally got over the hump!) Just want to extend my thanks to you and the rest of the Razz writers. You guys do unreal work and ARE the first fantasy site I go to every morning and I owe you all a ton of credit for keeping me competitive every year.
Keep up the great work!
Thanks for the support as always! [searches for high five emoji]
Brutal week for my WR core. Had already lost Marquise Brown. Now DK and Mike Williams for awhile it seems. Njoku too, but I can find a streamable TE.
My current RB: Barkley, Henry, Miles Sanders, Gus Edwards, Tony Pollard, Eno Benjamin, Pacheco
My current healthy WR: Pittman Jr, Rondale Moore, Garrett Wilson
I have another team who is interested in Miles Sanders. They have thus far thrown out Olave and Hopkins. Their WR room is as follows: Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, Chris Olave, DeAndre Hopkins, Jerry Jeudy, George Pickens, WanDale Robinson, Romeo Doubs.
He knows I am in a bind but I would really like to get two WR to fill in or boost my bench. This is a .5ppr 10 team two flex league. I threw a picture on as well. I don’t want to offend the other team if I appear to over value Miles Sanders. Any thoughts would be helpful!
nuke for sanders seems great. i doubt you’ll get the nuke owner to give a 2nd guy here though.
Yeah, what Mord said.
Honestly, I don’t really view it as “offending.” I know there’s kind of this philosophy of “screw the other teams in trades” but at a certain point, that’s a strategy that becomes bankrupt — either the league gets angry and moves on, or people won’t make trades with you. I would just frame it as is — you have something they need, they have something you need, you’re each willing, and just pull the trigger. Am I describing a fantasy football trade or…
I think Olave and Hopkins for Sanders is a win for you — Olave is gonna be a high variance guy just like Williams and DK, and if you could live with them, you can live with Olave.
Thank you both for your insight! I think I misspoke on the trade as well it was Hopkins or Olave so not quite the same maybe?
Thoughts on Michael Carter with 3rd waiver priority after the Robinson trade?
I’d be happy with Sanders for Hopkins — statistically fine, although Kyler is in a rut this year so there’s higher risk than expected.
I think there’s some unsaid criticism of Carter that, after drafting him and giving him a fair shake in 2021…that the Jets then drafted another RB, and then are now trading for another RB. So Carter might be a good play this week, but JRob probably drives the bus for the rest of the season. I’d prefer to get Carter as FA, not WW, but if you’re reading the tea leaves differently, Carter as WW#3 isn’t ludicrous. Good luck!
Running to escape my newly consolidated Jets backfield in 1st year startup best ball dynasty. Start 10 WR/RB/TE – PPR – Best Ball. Have the following offers:
JRob/Carter/Mooney for Adams/R. Moore
JRob/Carter for D. Johnson
Carter for Dillon
JRob for Dillon/Gallup
Team is strong and relatively well set going forward. First year so all picks still chambered. Itching to make some kind of move before its too late. Appreciate yalls thoughts thanks
I mean, best ball dynasty? Dreams do come true!
Personally, I go for the first offer of Jets+Mooney and receive Adams and Moore.
If you’re strong this year, JRob is probably a flex, and Carter is probably bench depth.
Next year, there’s no guarantee JRob or Carter even have a job. Each of them have been “canceled” multiple times.
Mooney is WR1 on a weird Bears team that will probably hunt for a better WR next year.
Davante Adams? The real deal, in an offense that likes to pass, and probably going to retain value for at least the current and next year window. High likelihood of value in 2024 as well — can trade him for basically anything.
At worst, I acquire Davante…and then flip him for a better RB than JRob and Carter. Few people want Jets RBs. Everybody wants Davante. The future is up to you. Good luck!
Great stuff Blair!
Lost 2 straight now I’m at 4-3, however still first in my division as it goes
Me 4-3
Team B 3-4
Team C 3-4
Team D 2-5
Team E 2-5
My points for is: 1265.5
In my division next closest is 1101, then 1058, then 1055 then lastly in the division 952
I’m glad I’m not in the other division as
it’s 6-1, 5-2, two 4-3 & one 2-5
Week 7 just faced a juggernaut (6-1 team) he has Mahomes, Etienne, chase, juju, Chubb & last week I was without Dalvin cook, Justin Jefferson, and Gabe Davis
Thoughts on my squad ROS
QB Tua
RB’s Dalvin cook, zeke Elliot, Darrel Henderson, Dameon Pierce, mattison, pollard, Mostert, Pacheco
WRs ;we start 3: Justin Jefferson, davante adams, courtland Sutton, Gabe Davis, George Pickens, Gallup, Doubs,
TE Njoku (out)
Stashed on IR: Jameson Williams, kyren Williams
1.) trade Darrel Henderson to get Kittle?
2.) trade Sutton to get Amon ra st brown?
3.) trade Mostert + Sutton for Amon ra St brown + Kittle
4.) trade Henderson + Sutton to get Amon ra st brown + Kittle?
– if I don’t trade for Kittle or any other TE I’ll still need one with njoku out. Do I hold or drop njoku? If I hold I’d drop Doubs.
Available TEs to stream:
– Dalton Schultz
– Harrison Bryant
– taysom hill
– juwan Johnson
– will dissly
Thanks man & have a great one!
Hey Water Boy! Yeah, looking good generally — sometimes we can’t control the matchups :)
Absolutely, Henderson is a fine RB for Madden but he’s got a lot of real life issues stacked against his favor.
I’d prefer ARSB to Sutton — Russ is getting positively weird.
Would prefer Mostert + Sutton trade by a touch — Mostert is statistically old and Dolphins will wanna do their air attack thing again soon. I’d hold Njoku and drop Doubs — ARog is getting weird too and he’s been a poor fantasy QB this year.
If you can’t get Kittle, it’s tough to turn down that Taysom play — one way or another he’ll get touches, but it’s just gonna be variant. You either live with the 0 or the 20 points — for me, I’ll go big or go home and take Taysom. Schultz is the safer plan tho. Good luck!