The first Sunday of the NFL season is now just hours away. In only two games, we’ve seen so much – big performances, disturbing no-shows, and a potentially devastating injury to one of our top fantasy QBs. If the first two games are any indication, we’re in for one hell of a ride.
New injuries are popping up for the Sunday slate, as well. Tee Higgins is now doubtful, trending toward out. His pass-catching mate, Ja’Marr Chase, may be inching toward a contract extension, but looks to be on a snap count Sunday. Steelers fans have been waiting to see what the new primetime “Cooking with Russ” show would look like, but it appears headed right to syndication. A pair of potential flex options, Josh Downs and DJ Chark, are both out as well. The list will certainly grow.
For today though, we’re all about DFS lineups. I’ll be using this column to share with you my DFS picks for the Sunday slate. I’ll give you a few recommendations for both Cash and GPP lineups.
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One of our most popular tools, the Defensive Slot vs Wide tool, is a must-visit each week. This tool breaks down how many fantasy points a defense allows to WRs from the slot vs. out wide and the percentage of the overall production that goes to the middle of the field vs. the perimeter. This data can help you figure out which players to start each week based on where most of their production comes from (see the accompanying Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool). This is my first stop when I consider WRs for my DFS builds.
You’re going to find many of our other free tools are valuable for DFS as well. Here’s a snapshot:
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Alright, now to my Week 1 recommendations.
Cash
- Player: Adam Thielen
- Game: Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
- DK: $5,200 / FD: $5,400
Adam Thielen looks to reprise his role as a slot threat against a team that gave up the 2nd highest percentage of their defenses’ fantasy points to slot WRs last season (46%). Thielen scored 64% of his fantasy points from the slot. He scored over 30 fantasy points combined in the two games versus this defense. Beyond the data, his price points on both platforms fit almost any build you’re considering. Take advantage of the gift.
- Player: James Conner
- Game: Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills
- DK: $6,200 / FD: $6,100
Although his price points are similar, I’m recommending Conner on DK, specifically. Here’s why: Conner’s price point on DK makes him the top $/point option amongst the projected top 20 scoring RBs this weekend (per our premium DK NFL Projections tool). Buffalo comes into the season after posting an NFL-average defense against RBs and early projections are showing a similar result. There’s opportunity here.
- Player: Rome Odunze
- Game: Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears
- DK: $4,000 / FD: $5,800
The Bears have a lot of offensive weapons and the rookie comes in with a heap of potential. With WR mates, DJ Moore and Keenan Allen to compete with, you may be inclined to shy away from the rookie. I’m here to suggest otherwise. Perhaps it’s due to his price point or the news that Allen is hobbling a bit, but our DFS Optimizer really likes him in cash lineups. That’s good enough recommendation for me.
GPP
- Player: Jonnu Smith
- Game: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins
- DK: $3,500 / FD: $4,600
Jonnu Smith is not a sexy name to consider but he’s cheap and the TE#1 in an explosive offense. I guess that’s why our DFS Optimizer really likes him.
- Player: Michael Pittman Jr.
- Team: Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
- DK: $6,800 / FD: $6,500
Anthony Richardson’s #1 WR option comes in at a manageable price for his potential. Looking back to last season, 89% of his fantasy points came out wide. In contrast, his opposing defense allowed over two-thirds of their WR points out wide. Josh Downs will miss this game and the other receiving option, Adonai Mitchell, will be playing his first NFL game. Expected game script has Jonathan Taylor and Richardson churning on the ground but they’ll have to air it out as well. When they do, Pittman Jr. should be the primary beneficiary. Perhaps a Richardson-Pittman Jr. stack is in order?
- Player: Andrei Iosivas
- Team: New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals
- DK: $3,000 / FD: $4,300
With the news Tee Higgins is likely out, and Ja’Marr Chase may be limited, Andrei Iosivas is the projected next man up. His price points are super cheap, thus making him the top WR name to consider on a $/Pt projection basis. The only downside, of course, is his ownership will likely be high. Still worth considering.
As always, all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com. Also, don’t forget to join the Razzball boys, Bobby (@BobbyLamarco), Sky (@SkyGuasco), Matt (@Stiles08), Jeff (@Jefferson_21) and me each week for our live show. Come for the insight, stay for the fun!
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Until next time, my friends!