Week 13 Start vs. Sit: Pickett’s Charge

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There isn’t much I have to say about last week’s slate of football games. I drank a lot of beer, ate a surplus of food, repeatedly swung a hammer at a stump, and dozed frequently enough for the entire experience to be a blur. Monday morning of this week was what I imagined seeing the light for the first time to be like. But as the week has gone on, the Thanksgiving hangover has worn off, and now the month of December is officially upon us.

Six weeks of regular-season football remain. Unfortunately for my dear friend, New Jersey Nicholas, life as a Buffalo Bills fan has only worsened since the time of my last post. Now, we enter into a pivotal period for Nicholas and Bills Mafia, as well as for all fantasy managers far and wide. It’s nearly playoff season. Things are heating up. Is this the time to make a gutsy call or play it safe Week 13 start vs. sit begins right now.

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Quarterback

START: Kenny Pickett (ECR: QB17). Let’s try to catch lightning in a bottle, why don’t we? Through Week 12, Pickett’s highest finish this season came as QB14 back in Week 7. He has yet to sniff QB1 range in any game this season and hasn’t accounted for a touchdown since Week 9. However, he looked much improved under new OC Eddie Faulkner, passing for 278 yards while completing 72.7% of his passes. Faced with a Cardinals secondary allowing the fourth-most passing touchdowns (21) and seventh-most yards per attempt (7.0) in the NFL, this should be Pickett’s best chance at being a top-10 quarterback this year.

SIT: Sam Howell (ECR: QB9). Since getting Jalen Ramsey back in Week 8, the Dolphins have performed as one of the better pass defenses, with the third-fewest yards per attempt in the league in that span. Howell has been tremendous this season and is riding an active five-game streak, finishing as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. It’s a bold call, but Howell runs into a speed bump this week as the Commanders eye a Week 14 bye.

Running Back 

START: Devin Singletary (ECR: RB22). Two weeks ago, against the Cardinals? 24 touches and 19 half-PPR points for an RB4 finish. Last week vs. the Jaguars? Only six carries but six catches on seven targets for 54 yards to salvage 10 half-PPR points and an RB20 finish. Is that the floor? Perhaps not, but the floor for Singletary this week is higher against a Broncos defense allowing the most yards per carry (5.4) in the entire league. Trust Singletary as a top-15 back in this matchup.

HAT TIP: Joe Mixon (ECR: RB24). Of Mixon’s seven finishes in RB2 range or better this season, four have come in the last five weeks (including three top-11 finishes). Last week against the Steelers was a speed bump, but Mixon should return to top-15 status with a couple of big runs in Week 13 against a Jaguars defense that has really struggled as of late.

SIT: Javonte Williams (ECR: RB15). As you can see, there’s one running back I like in this week’s Denver-Houston tilt and one that I’m sheepish about. Javonte is the sheep. In a matchup against a stout Texans defense surrendering the third-fewest yards per carry (3.6) in the NFL, Williams will need to find the endzone to salvage top-24 fantasy output in Week 13.

Wide Receiver

START: Adam Thielen (ECR: WR17). Thielen is primed for a bounce-back game after putting up an abysmal 1.2 PPR points last week with one catch for two yards on three targets. He hasn’t seen the endzone in five matchups since the bye week, averaging 9.98 PPR points during that stretch. This week he faces a division rival in Tampa Bay who ranks 29th against wide receivers in fantasy. The Bucs secondary ranks third worst in the NFL with a 51.5 PFF coverage grade and are in the middle of the pack with a 72.0 pass rush grade. Thielen has found success in the slot with four touchdowns, tied for the most in the league, on 65 targets, the most in the league. Tampa Bay’s Christian Izien has been targeted 36 times in slot coverage, leading to 300 yards and three touchdowns, which ranks tenth and second, respectively, among qualified defenders. Thielen should be targeted often from the slot.

SIT: Puka Nacua (ECR: WR16). Puka has slowed down since his historic start to the season, averaging 9.73 PPR points over his last four games compared to a 20.8 average in the prior seven weeks. The Rams passing attack as a whole has been trending downward with a 180 passing yards per game on average over their past four matchups. This week won’t be any easier for LA as they draw the top passing defense in Cleveland, who is allowing only 142 yards in the air per game, 29 yards better than the next-best squad. Stafford will likely be under pressure early and often as the Rams’ offensive line ranks 25th with a 57.1 PFF pass block grade, while the Rams’ defense ranks third with a 90.5 pass rush grade.

Tight End

START: Pat Freiermuth (ECR: TE9). Tight end picks are slim this week, and with Pickett in line to have a career day, Freiermuth could very well be a primary beneficiary. He’s coming off a season-high 11 targets, nine receptions and 120 yards against the Bengals in Week 12. FIRE. HIM. UP!

SIT: David Njoku (ECR: TE8). If given the choice between the two, it’s Freiermuth over Njoku all day. Don’t get lulled into David’s spell. He is a mean girl. Just when you start to trust him, he’s spreading gossip all around school behind your back and making out with your best friend. The Rams have only allowed 11 receiving touchdowns all year, and the Browns have some questions at quarterback in Week 13. Avoid.