Week 13 Starts and Sits: Win/Loss and Home/Road Players Splits

Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool

This week, it’s Thanksgiving Week in the U.S.

In the world of the NFL, I’m thankful we get our first week without byes since Week 8.

I’m also thankful I’m getting to write a column. I don’t believe I’ve said this to anyone here, but Razzball was the first fantasy site I visited outside of the platforms on which my leagues were being hosted.

One day about 15 years ago one of my league mates in a fantasy baseball league said, “Have you ever checked out this site Razzball?” I had not.

I started reading some of the articles and I liked that, on top of the data analysis, there was significant wit being dispensed. Most of what I had read to that point was very dry. It was nice to see someone enjoying analyzing fantasy sports as much I was enjoying playing them.

So, to Matt Stiles and Bobby LaMarco who contorted themselves considerably and accommodated me in recruitment, thank you. To Sky Guasco who took the time to walk me through preparing my articles for publication, thank you. To Bobby and Sky for being gracious video hosts, thank you. And to Derek Favret, Jefferson, and BDon with whom I’ve had the pleasure to share video screens, thank you.

To Week 13. We’re in the final two weeks of many fantasy regular seasons. We have Thanksgiving Day games in Detroit, Arlington, TX, and Green Bay, and a Black Friday game in Kansas City with a possibility of snow in Green Bay and Kansas City. Snow may be a factor again in Buffalo on Sunday night. Other than that the weather should be pretty good.

Let’s look at some starts among the players ranked as WR 3’s and flexes and players we might sit.

Want more data-driven stats and tools to help you win your fantasy league? Check out the Razzball Fantasy Football premium subscriptions for $0.00 upfront with our 3-day free trial!

 

STARTS

Player: Tyreek Hill

Team: Miami Dolphins

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 35

Spread: +3.5 at Green Bay Packers

Win/Loss: +12.3, W/L Index 203

Home/Road: +2.7, H/R Index 116

Neither of our indices like this matchup much and the weather outside will be frightful (forecasted in the mid-20s Fahrenheit), which does not favor the Dolphins. Quick, when was Tyreek’s last 100+ yard game? Week 1.

The thing about players like Tyreek with Tua Tagovailoa is that even most of his down games are above our 11.60 PPR point projection. Both defenses are above average, yet the books have this game close and reasonably high-scoring (over/under is 46.5 per ESPNBET). Green Bay has allowed the fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers over the last six weeks, but I believe the Dolphins will throw more than the Lions, Texans, or 49ers did. Trevor Lawrence had 308 yards and 2 TDs passing in the UK in Week 9.

Caveat: Tyreek missed practice Tuesday for personal reasons. I’ll update this in the comments on Wednesday.                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Player: Tony Pollard

Team: Tennessee Titans

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: RB 26

Spread: +5.5 at Washington Commanders

Win/Loss: +4.7, W/L Index 143

Home/Road: -1.0, H/R Index 93

I’m bucking W/L here because while the Commanders are favored, they’ve lost three straight including two at home since Jayden Daniels sustained a rib injury. Two of those teams (Pittsburgh and Philadelphia) are better than Tennessee, but Dallas with Cooper Rush is on par, and the Titans’ defense is better than the Cowboys’. I’m betting Washington doesn’t run away with this one.

Pollard’s PPR point projection is 12.34 and Washington gives up 145 rushing yards a game. If Tyjae Spears is back and not limited, Pollard could fall short, so I might pump the brakes in that case, but Pollard has had 23, 31, and 27 touches in the past three games Spears has missed.

Player: Jerry Jeudy

Team: Cleveland Browns

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 34

Spread: +5.5 at Denver Broncos

Win/Loss: -0.4, W/L Index 96

Home/Road: -0.5, H/R Index 95

Welcome to “start the road underdogs week” in the column. At least the indices agree with me, if only slightly. I had Jeudy as a sit last week and was looking pretty good until the game-winning drive by the Browns in the snow.

There is a possibility Cedric Tillman will miss this game with a concussion. Either way, I like Jeudy against his former team. The weather, while in the high 30s F, shows no signs of precipitation and should have low winds.

The Broncos are tough (3^rd in yards allowed, 3^rd in points allowed) but the Browns are averaging 282.5 passing yards per game since Jameis Winston took over. I like Jeudy to put on a show on his former home field and to surpass his 11.79 PPR point projection for the fifth straight game.

 

 

SITS

 Player: Marvin Harrison Jr.

Team: Arizona Cardinals

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 29

Spread: +3.5 at Minnesota Vikings

Win/Loss: +5.4, W/L Index 164

Home/Road: +6.9, H/R Index 191

 I’ve been burned twice giving advice for MHJ – I am the master of bad timing. The indices are on my side here though.

I like how the Seahawks went a bit against type and brought pressure against the Cardinals: they had 5 sacks in the 16-6 win when they only had 23 in their first 10 games.

Now we’ll see what happens when the Cards face a team that loves to bring pressure – the only teams with more sacks than the Vikings have not had their byes yet – and what the Cards do to counter. The books are expecting an Arizona bounceback. The Vikes are tough to run on so they give up plenty of passing yards and touchdowns, but they also turn the ball over with 16 interceptions. They’ve also allowed a league-low 95 yards rushing to QBs. Kyler Murray very well could have to keep his team in this game with his arm. If he succeeds, I’m wrong.

If not, I like Harrison to fall under his PPR projection of 12.51 points.

Player: Zay Flowers

Team: Baltimore Ravens

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: RB 33

Spread: -3.0 vs Philadelphia Eagles

Win/Loss: -1.7, W/L Index 88

Home/Road: +2.1, H/R Index 117

 The indices are split. I’m not playing it safe fading a team’s WR1 in the highest over/under line on the Week 13 slate.

The Eagles are the hottest team in the NFL. The Rams managed to reach 20 points against them. It was the most points they’ve given up since Week 4 – coincidentally, their last loss.

Flowers is a line-up anywhere guy: 56% wide, 44% slot, but the Eagles are sound across the board with Quinyon Mitchell, Darius Slay, and Cooper DeJean at the corners and C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Reed Blankenship at safeties. They’ve given up the third-fewest PPR points – 23.9 – to wide receivers over their last six games. And the Ravens certainly do not need to live on their passing game.

I think Flowers falls short of his 11.85-point projection.

Player: Travis Etienne Jr.

Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: RB 20

Spread: +5.0 vs Houston Texans

Win/Loss: +9.7, W/L Index 198

Home/Road: -0.7, H/R Index 95

 The indices are in favor of a sit if only slightly for H/R. This was the seventh-highest-scoring PPR back in points per game in 2023. His 2024 is startling.

Houston is tied for 10^th in rushing yards allowed and only 5 teams have allowed fewer rushing touchdowns than their 7.

Our projection is 13.46 PPR points for Etienne, a number he’s achieved once in 2024. There’s also a chance Tank Bigsby returns to the lineup in Week 13.

None of what I just said gives me confidence in Etienne for Week 13. I don’t like that, but I do feel it.

 

That’s a wrap on the column! Don’t forget to check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball.com. Follow me on Twitter/X @crewser128. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 13!