Week 13 Target Trends

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Week 12 gave us a temporary reprieve from the bye weeks. All 32 teams were in action, and fantasy owners were thankful for a number of big performances over the long weekend. Of course, there were a few turkeys along the way too, but you won’t find those in this article. I’m all about the meat, potatoes, and stuffing here; someone else can write about Aunt Lucy’s odd-looking side dishes. I’m not the only one with an “Aunt Lucy,” am I? I thought not! Let’s get back to the good stuff…

One of the best games of the week came early on Thanksgiving Day, with the Bills knocking off the Lions on a game-winning field goal. This game also provided 3 of the 16 double-digit target recipients of the week, including the player currently 2^nd on the season-long targets list. Once the pumpkin pie was gone and we woke up from our tryptophan comas, two more games were in the books, adding another four more players to our double-digit target list. All told, Turkey Day proved to be a great day for receiver performances.

The rest of the schedule didn’t disappoint either. Every Sunday/Monday slate game had at least one player with eight or more targets, including a good mix of superstars and fantasy role players. RBs and WRs leaders chipped in 15 targets each, led by Austin Ekeler and DK Metcalf, respectively. TEs were paced by none other than Hayden Hurst of the Bengals with nine targets. Overall, it was once again a good week to be a wide receiver, as 30 received at least eight targets.

Let’s take a closer look at these players and look for some trends to exploit.

Week 12 Target Monsters/Week 13 Outlook:

DK Metcalf, Seahawks: The aforementioned DK Metcalf ascended to the top of the Week 12 list with 15 targets in the shootout with the Raiders. This game gave us a combined 74 points, with Metcalf leading all players with 11 receptions for 90 yards. Of course, Josh Jacobs and Kenny Walker provided the bulk of the TD scoring on the ground. I take this moment to acknowledge their success here, but since this is a target trend article, we’ll really need to move on. Despite battling through a patellar tendon injury since Week 7, Metcalf is logging an average of 10 targets per game over the past four contests. The Seahawks face off against a Rams defense in Week 13, which is averaging almost 35 fantasy PPG to wide receivers (64% to wideouts, 36% to slot receivers). Metcalf tends to run out of the slot a majority of the time (60%), but with the Rams struggling to stop anyone these days, I’m not downgrading Metcalf based on the trends. Expect this Seahawk to continue soaring for your fantasy playoff push.

Zay Jones, Jaguars: We’ve been waiting for Zay Jones to break out, and it appears to be finally coming to fruition. Jones followed up his 10-target game in Week 10 at Kansas City with a 14-target game versus Baltimore on Sunday. Between the two games, he’s scored over 40 fantasy points for his owners. That total equals the previous five games combined. So, what is different? It’s likely not a coincidence that the last two games were against defenses in the bottom 6 of the league and giving up over 35 fantasy PPG to wide receivers. The next two games? More of the same. The Lions and Titans rank in the bottom three versus receivers, giving up 41+ and 36+ fantasy PPG, respectively. Zay Jones was included in my buddy Mitch Staniger’s Week 13 Waiver Wire article. If you were lucky enough to roster him, be sure to get him into your lineup.

Chris Godwin, Buccaneers: I admit, I saw the matchup last week in Cleveland as more of a Mike Evans Day since the Browns have been stingy against slot receivers like Godwin. Instead, it was Chris Godwin who secured 12 of 13 targets for 110 yards and a score. Godwin has been getting his targets for many weeks, but now he’s making them count, scoring TDs in the last two. The Bucs’ offense may not be what it once was, but we’re secure knowing Godwin will get his opportunities, no matter the opponent.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions: I’m just going to simply update my analysis of St. Brown from last week’s article. “What can I say about Amon-Ra St. Brown that hasn’t been said already? The dude is a star. Another 10 targets resulted in 27+ PPR fantasy points. Sure, our expectations are high for 20+ point games, and some owners may be getting a little nervous, but I say to take a breath and relax. Those games are coming soon. I’m circling the Week 13 game against the Jaguars for sure, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him holding a turkey leg after a Lions upset of the Bills either.” Ok, the Lions didn’t upset the Bills, but everything about Amon-Ra St. Brown holds.

Michael Pittman Jr., Colts: By halftime, the Colts’ passing game collected only 36 passing yards, almost half going to Pittman. Thankfully, the Colts that came out of the locker room resembled an NFL team, and the offense finally opened up. When the final whistle sounded, Pittman secured 7 of 11 targets for 61 yards and only his second TD of the season (the first being way back in Week 1). This was only the third time this season seeing Pittman get double-digit targets, so his fantasy owners had a lot to be thankful for Monday night. The road gets a bit tougher this week against a Dallas defense ranked in the top half of the league in PPG allowed to wideouts, where Pittman is scoring 70% of his fantasy points. Temper your expectations this week and circle the Week 15 game at Minnesota (Note: Colts have a bye in Week 14) as the next double-digit target opportunity.

That’s the end of my featured players. Like last week’s article, I’ll move on to my version of the two-minute drill and fire off some additional matchups that are trending for me in week 12.

Davante Adams, Raiders: Quote from last week’s article, “If the Raiders are going to win, Adams will need to remain highly targeted…blah blah blah…Wash, Rince, Repeat!” Well, the Raiders won, and Adams led the way with 11 targets (7 receptions for 74 yards). The Chargers’ defense may give up five less fantasy PPG than the Seahawks do, but we’d be fools to go away from Adams now. Wash, Rince, Repeat!

Amari Cooper, Browns: Amari Cooper put up back-to-back games with 12 targets. However, his next two come against top-third defenses for fantasy PPG to wide receivers. Unless you’re insanely stacked at WR, he’s a must-start in season-long leagues, but DFS players may want to look elsewhere.

Austin Ekeler, Chargers: Austin Ekeler was back doing Austin Ekeler things last week in the Arizona desert. Ekeler secured 11 of 15 targets for 60 yards and a TD. The last time Ekeler and the Chargers visited Vegas, he left with 12 targets. Expect more of the same this week.

Adam Thielen, Vikings: Adam Thielen has been getting consistent targets, averaging a steady seven targets per game since Week 2. His 10 targets were a bit of an anomaly but not overly so. What is more encouraging was the nine receptions and a TD over those 10 targets. Logic says he’ll continue to get close to his target average, but I recommend keeping him on your bench this week versus the tough Jets defense against slot receivers.

Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots: Rhamondre Stevenson wasn’t too busy toting the rock on Sunday (the Patriots only tallied a total of 13 rushing plays), but he more than made up for it in the passing game. Stevenson received 10 targets, converting 9 for 76 yards. Fantasy owners don’t care where those 20+ fantasy points come from, though. In Week 13, his versatility will need to be on display against a Bills defense allowing only 17% targets to RBs. Don’t despair, though. Better matchups are on the horizon against the Cardinals and Raiders.

Nico Collins, Texans: Lastly, I wanted to give a quick shout-out to Nico Collins. The Texans are brutal, but Collins makes for a nice Flex option the rest of the way. He is averaging almost nine targets per game over the past three and has some nice wide receiver matchups over the next few weeks. Don’t let the uniform scare you away here.

Agree/Disagree? Let me know what you think in the comments below. Also, feel free to send any trade questions or roster decisions. I’m always happy to provide some fantasy advice to our loyal followers. Good luck with all your teams…unless you’re competing against me!