Week 15 Starts and Sits: Win/Loss and Home/Road Players Splits

And sometimes I have bad timing.

I don’t mind missing on a player but I do mind offering a good player that winds up out of the game plan.

I featured Jayden Reed last week. Other than a 14-yard defensive pass interference penalty he drew on Brian Branch on the Packers’ first offensive series and a short incompletion on the second series, the only other time I saw Reed on screen was later in the game when he rushed to Dontayvion Wicks’ aid after Wicks got rocked by a hit.

Josh Jacobs only ran three times in the Packers’ first three series, which wound up punt, punt, and turnover on a pass. Jordan Love had dropped back eight times including a sack on the first offensive play, attempted seven passes, and scrambled once.

Credit the Packers’ defense: after the Lions had an 11-play, 70-yard touchdown drive on their first offensive series, the Packers forced two punts and held the Lions to a field goal after the Packers’ offense turned the ball over a few yards past midfield.

On the ensuing Packers’ possession, after the Lions made the score 10-0, the Packers put together their own 11-play, 70-yard touchdown drive that featured the running backs: Love only threw two passes on the drive – a third was overturned by a DPI – and scrambled once.

After the Packers’ first three offensive series, Love only attempted 13 passes the rest of the game, mostly to Wicks and Tucker Kraft. The game plan I envisioned was pivoted away from and the Packers only ran 45 plays.

I’m not mad at the Packers for that: they aren’t here to make me look good, and what they did kept them in the game.

I regret that my choice was awry. I believe my logic was sound.

On to Week 15, the first playoff week in many fantasy football leagues. Week 14 was a significantly high-scoring week: the average points per NFL game was 47.3 which was a nearly 11 percent increase over Week 14 2023 (42.7 points per game). I don’t know about you, but I saw a lot of high scores in my leagues despite six NFL teams having the week off. The sportsbooks only have two games below a 43.5-point total in Week 15: the Jets at the Jaguars (40.5) and the Steelers at the Eagles (42.5).

Let’s look at some starts among the players ranked as WR 3’s and flexes and players we might sit.

Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool

Want more data-driven stats and tools to help you win your fantasy league? Check out the Razzball Fantasy Football premium subscriptions for $0.00 upfront with our 3-day free trial!

 

STARTS

 

Player: Terry McLaurin

Team: Washington Commanders

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 35

Spread: -7.0 at New Orleans Saints

Win/Loss: +3.0, W/L Index 125

Home/Road: -0.7, H/R Index 95

McLaurin is ranked lowly for a team’s WR 1 this week, so let’s look at the match-up: our indices show that McLaurin performs well both as a favorite and slightly better on the road.

The game is indoors, so no weather factor.

The Saints have allowed the 10^th-most PPR points to wide receivers over the last six weeks and 6^th-most to wideouts. McLaurin lines up out wide 86% of the time.

His RazzballNFL projection is for 12.57 PPR points; McLaurin has hit that every week since Week 2 except Week 11 vs. Philadelphia.

Noah Brown is likely to miss the rest of the season with a significant internal injury which hurts the Commanders as a unit, but I don’t think that affects McLaurin a lot. Jayden Daniels seems to have regrouped from the rib injury that hampered him in Weeks 10 and 11. I’m confident starting McLaurin as my WR 3 in Week 15. Every week frankly.                                                                                                                                                                                                

Player: Tank Bigsby

Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: RB 32

Spread: +3.0 vs New York Jets

Win/Loss: +3.5, W/L Index 213

Home/Road: +2.3, H/R Index 169

I almost went to the Jets side for Braelon Allen, but if last Sunday is an indicator, Allen is in a true split with Isaiah Davis.

There are pitfalls in this matchup: the Jags are an underdog and if this game gets away from them, Bigsby can be marginalized as he is not much of a factor in the passing game. The Jets are not a great matchup: they’re allowing 15.2 PPR points per game to running backs which is 22^nd. W/L is against us, but H/R is in our favor.

I believe the Jags’ best chance this week is to limit Mac Jones’ touches which favors Bigsby as Travis Etienne seems to have settled in as the passing down back.

The weather in Jacksonville should be beautiful at ~70 degrees Fahrenheit with a modest wind.

Our projection for Bigsby is 9.46 PPR points. I believe he can get there without a touchdown, but if he does get into the end zone, he should beat the projection by a good amount.

And if he helps you get to the next round of your playoffs, the Jags have two good matchups for RBs in Weeks 16 and 17: at Las Vegas and vs. Tennessee.

Player: Cooper Kupp

Team: Los Angeles Rams

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 25

Spread: +2.5 at Los Angeles Rams

Win/Loss: +0.5, W/L Index 104

Home/Road: +1.8, H/R Index 113

The Rams are underdogs on the road, but the 49ers have sustained enough damage that the Rams would likely be favored slightly on a neutral field. Cooper Kupp isn’t a typical player either: even with an H/R index of 113, he still averages 14.4 points in the road games he’s played since the beginning of 2023.

There could be precipitation in Santa Clara, but it should be slight. The temperature and wind are favorable.

This is one of the fiercer rivalries in the NFL, and usually, one team or the other has the upper hand for some time. That has been the 49ers recently, but I think the Rams are in better shape for this game. It’s been over two years since Kupp has faced the Niners and the last time he was in Santa Clara, he had 14 receptions on 19 targets for 122 yards. That was pre-Puka Nacua, so I expect more modest numbers, but I’m not worried about Deommodore Lenoir’s dominance in the slot: Kupp will give him a good workout.

At 49.5, this is one of the higher point totals on the Week 15 slate. Kupp has beaten our 13.37-point projection every week since Week 8 except Week 13 in New Orleans when Matthew Stafford only completed 14 passes for 183 yards.

Like Terry McLaurin, I only sit Kupp if he gives me a few reasons to do so.

 

SITS

 

Player: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Team: Seattle Seahawks

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 28

Spread: +3.0 vs Green Bay Packers

Win/Loss: -0.3, W/L Index 97

Home/Road: +0.3, H/R Index 102

If you look at the indices over time, JSN has been one of the most consistent game performers since the beginning of the 2023 season which is 30 games worth of data. The slight leans are in his favor this week.

There’s a decent chance of rain, but the temperature and wind should not cause problems.

His RazzballNFL projection is 13.26 PPR points which he has only missed twice since Week 7, and then only slightly (12.90 in Week 8 and 11.90 in Week 13).

What has me concerned is the Packers are 15^th best for running backs so this could be another big game for Zach Charbonnet (or Kenneth Walker III if he returns). The Packers also are the 6^th-best team against the slot at 9.9 PPR PPG and have been a run-funnel team over the past six weeks.

I’d be confident leaning on JSN next week vs. Minnesota in Seattle, but this matchup concerns me.

Player: Tank Dell

Team: Houston Texans

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 31

Spread: -3.0 vs. Miami Dolphins

Win/Loss: +2.5, W/L Index 123

Home/Road: +1.5, H/R Index 114

 The indices here are favorable to Dell, and the game is in a covered stadium, so the conditions are favorable. What’s not to like?

If you have shares of the Texans passing game not named Nico Collins, you can guess. For fantasy purposes, Houston’s attack has not been great. Since Week 6, CJ Stroud only has two 250+ yard passing games and has more 2 interception games (2) than 2 touchdown games (1). He’s also in line to be sacked more this year.

Anecdotally, the shift could be attributed to Joe Mixon, and while the Texans’ running game is more efficient, the increase in the rush-to-pass ratio is only about 1% and the Texans are averaging more offensive plays per game in 2024.

Collins’ five-game absence hurt the efficiency of the passing game, but not the volume. Dell did have a bump in production during that time, but not enough to overcome the loss of Stefon Diggs as well.

The last four weeks before the Week 14 bye are particularly concerning: despite three games against top-10 defenses for wide receivers to face, Dell only topped 10 PPR points once, and that was 10.20 points against Tennessee, the only unfavorable defense for wide receivers the Texans faced.

Miami has been a top-12 defense against wideouts in the last six weeks. They’re also a run-funnel offense that gives up 18.0 PPR PPG to running backs.

I would not need a lot of prodding to bench Dell in Week 15, although I would hang on to him. Easier matchups at Kansas City and vs. Baltimore in Houston are ahead.

Player: DeVonta Smith

Team: Philadelphia Eagles

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 26

Spread: -5.0 vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Win/Loss: +0.4, W/L Index 103

Home/Road: +3.9, H/R Index 132

W/L is neutral, H/R is favorable. Why fade DeVonta Smith?

He lines up in the slot 55% of his snaps and that is the Beanie Bishop Jr. zone. Aside from having one of the cooler names in the NFL, Bishop has helped hold slot receivers to 6.9 PPR PPG the last six weeks, tied for fewest in the NFL with Baltimore. The 55% isn’t overwhelming but it could limit Smith’s ceiling.

Add to that the fact that A.J. Brown has been grumbling about his share of the offense in the Eagles game in Carolina, and Philadelphia will have reasons to funnel the ball outside when they do pass.

I liked Smith facing Carolina and he did have a touchdown in the game, but I’m uneasy about him this week and would choose others (Brian Thomas, Jr. or Jaylen Waddle) to beat his 13.10-point projection this week. I might hedge Smith going forward as well: his first matchups against Washington (6.90 PPR points) and Dallas (3.40) did not yield many points.

 

That’s a wrap on the column! Don’t forget to check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball.com. Follow me on Twitter/X @crewser128. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 15  and I hope you advance in the playoffs!