Week 4 Starts and Sits: Win/Loss Players Splits

Last week, I gave us a player as a Start who proceeded to go out and score 0 points. I’m not going to lie: I like that as much or less than you do.

How do I know that? Because I play this game also, and Rashid Shaheed is on a high percentage of my rosters. I started him without reservation because he’s been productive.

And you know what? I’ll start him again this week.

Am I a glutton for punishment? Insane? Maybe.

But with five targets in Week 3, he had as many as Tyreek Hill. And Michael Pittman. More than Zay Flowers and Mike Evans. And one fewer than Chris Olave.

Shaheed is still a profit, and I believe he will continue to be.

Shaheed broke open behind Quinyon Mitchell in the second quarter Sunday for what could have been a 41-yard touchdown. Derek Carr was short with the throw allowing Mitchell to recover and break up the catch. That play alone would have been 11.1 PPR points.

But it wasn’t.

End of a longish story, sometimes the results aren’t there. But if you have a process and stick with it, they will be.

I’ll end with this: after having five quarterbacks total throw for 300+ yards in a game in Weeks 1 and 2, five threw for 300+ yards in Week 3. Hopefully, the tide is turning for NFL passing attacks.

Let’s get some players to use or not in our third wide receiver or flex spots for Week 4.

Starts

Player: Tank Dell

Team: Houston Texans

Spread: -6.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Win/Loss: +3.2, W/L Index 128

Jacksonville has been missing key pieces in their secondary and just received news that linebacker Foyesade Oluokun is expected to miss a few weeks due to plantar fasciitis. This defense was already the 30^th in air yards against and 28^th in points allowed. The Texans are fifth in pass attempts and despite the Monday Night result the Jaguars have been competitive while the Texans did not pull away in either of their wins. Dell had his most productive day of the season in Week 3 and Jacksonville has been susceptible to wideouts. The Oluokun injury and potential return of Joe Mixon may cause me to pump the brakes a bit but not enough. Tank lining up against either Ronald Darby or Montaric Brown are pluses, and Tank performs well in wins: the game should produce enough offense to support the Texans’ receivers. Note: Keep an eye on the Texans injury report as Tank Dell is “day-to-day” per DeMeco Ryans with rib and wrist injuries.

Player: Tee Higgins

Team: Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: -4.5 at Carolina Panthers

Win-Loss: -0.3, W/L Index 98

I don’t know if we’ve seen the real Carolina Panthers yet, but I’m betting they’re neither the uncompetitive team led by Bryce Young nor the juggernaut they showed Las Vegas. Either way, their defense has been susceptible to the pass. Cincinnati moves their receivers around the formation but in his first game of the 2024 season, Higgins played about 83% of his snaps as a wideout. Carolina has not been adept at stopping wideouts and neither Jaycee Horn nor Mike Jackson should be able to stop Higgins. This should be a high-scoring game and at a W/L index of 98, what we get from Tee over time is consistent in this area. Cincinnati needs a win and I think playing the team that drafted him should incent Andy Dalton on the Carolina side.

Player: Christian Kirk

Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: +6.5 at Houston Texans

Win/Loss: +1.0, W/L Index 109

I promise that I will not list Kirk every week, but I believe there are green lights here: Kirk has lined up in the slot on 77% of his plays and Jalen Pitre spends a lot of time opposite the slot receiver. That’s a good spot for Jacksonville to attack in a game they’re likely to be trailing. Kirk is the best slot receiver the Texans have faced in 2024.

Sits

Player: Wan’Dale Robinson

Team: New York Giants

Spread: +5.5 vs Dallas Cowboys

Win-Loss: +1.2, W/L Index 113 

The W/L index of 113 is consistent despite the outcome, but Wan’Dale is primarily a slot receiver – he lines up there 65% of the time – and Dallas has an excellent slot corner in Jourdan Lewis, who helped hold Zay Flowers to 20 yards in Week 3. Malik Nabers is a budding star and I believe the Giants will need to employ Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy to help keep Dallas’ defense away from Daniel Jones.

Player: Jameson Williams

Team: Detroit Lions

Spread: -3.5 vs Seattle Seahawks

Win-Loss: +2.6, W/L Index 142 

The Lions are favored and the W/L index is favorable, why am I sitting Jamo? The matchup: Seattle is only giving up 11.9 PPR points per game to wideouts in 2024. Williams spends 71% of his plays out wide, and although that’s been split evenly between either side, neither Riq Woolen nor Tre Brown is a positive matchup. This projects as a win, and there should be plenty of points, but I like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery better in this one.

Player: Javonte Williams

Team: Denver Broncos

Spread: +7.5 at New York Jets

Win-Loss: +3.2, W/L Index 137 

I couldn’t let the week go by without mentioning one running back, and this is cheating. I have shares of Javonte Williams and not only do I not want him in my lineup, I don’t want any Bronco offensive player in my lineup for the foreseeable future. Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin are collectively averaging 2.2 yards per carry. Williams has 34 touches and 20.9 PPR points for the season. The Jets have been susceptible to the run, but the ground games of the San Francisco 49ers and the Tennessee Titans have a pulse; the Denver Broncos’ does not seem to.

Finally, to Beans, you were right about Nabers, and if he’s not a “set it and forget it” player yet, he’s in the zip code.

That’s a wrap for this week. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 4!