Did you follow my advice last week? To refresh your memory, I used practically all of our free Razzball tools to identify Nico Collins as my lock of the week. I put my money on my words and cashed out on a nice +210 parlay with Nico. Now it’s time to turn the page and find more winners for this weekend. See below for my DFS and prop calls.
I’m going to kick the podium again because it’s working for me. Razzball has both free and premium tools to give you every angle needed to make informed choices when creating lineups or evaluating props. Below you’ll find my high-end and low-end options for DFS, perfectly suited to plug into our Sabersim’s DFS optimizer to round out your lineups. Following that, I’ll give you prop plays I really like.
One final note before getting into the recommendations, if you need a refresher on our free and premium tools, you can review my previous article HERE. I have links to our free tools scattered through the article but if you want to skip the line and go right in and check them out, here you go (again, all for free at football.razzball.com):
- Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool
- Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool
- Home/Road Player Splits tool
- Win/Loss Player Splits tool
- TD Rushing/Receiving Share tool
Paying Up
- Player: Jordan Love
- Game: Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams
- DK: $6,500 / FD: $8,200
Despite a slow start, Jordan Love made an impressive return to the field last week at home versus the Vikings, tossing four TDs and 389 yards. Now he draws one of the friendliest DEF, conceding the fifth most points to QBs so far this season. He’ll be without Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, but this should only give someone else an opportunity (see below) rather than become a drag on Love.
- Player: Chuba Hubbard
- Game: Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
- DK: $6,100 / FD: $6,800
Bobby and I discussed this on our Wednesday night Sits, Streamers, and Flexes show. The Bears are in the bottom third in the league vs RBs, giving up 100 rushing yards/game and a total of five TDs so far. RBs are also active in the passing game versus the Bears, logging an average of four receptions. For his part, Chuba has been productive in his last two starts, ironically against bottom third defenses as well, posting over 22 fantasy points per game. The “new and exciting” Panthers are visiting the Windy City on Sunday but as our Home/Road Player Splits tool points out, Hubbard if 6% better away from Charlotte. As a bonus, he’s not overly expensive either so go spend some of that salary elsewhere.
- Player: Michael Pittman Jr.
- Game: Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- DK: $6,000 / FD: $6,100
This one is contingent on Joe Flacco at QB for the Colts. The Jaguars DEF gives up the most fantasy points per game to QBs. From our Defensive NFL Targets Allowed tool, we find the Jaguars DEF gives up the 4thmost targets as well, with 64% to WRs. Of those, our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool tells us 64% of those go to WRs out wide. All that suggests Pittman is a strong play this week. Again, assuming gunslinger Joe is at QB. In relief duty, he logged 26 attempts over 51 snaps. Now that’s that volume we want here!
- Player: Taysom Hill
- Game: New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs
- DK: $4,000 / FD: $6,400
If you plan to play the Monday Night Football slate, look no further than Taysom Hill. The Chief’s DEF is the most generous to TE (remember Isaiah Likely’s week 1 performance?) at 18.9 and 14.4 points in DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. Monitor this one closely though, he’s dealing with chest/rib injuries that are keeping him limited in practice this week. Also, with the Monday Night game, we may not hear definitive word until Saturday evening. If he plays, we could be looking at another of his multi-TD games.
Bargain Shopping
- Player: Trevor Lawrence
- Game: Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- DK: $5,700 / FD: $7,000
Bobby and I discussed this on our Wednesday night Sits, Streamers, and Flexes show as well. Basically, here’s the summary: The Colts are one of the worst vs QBs, giving up an average of 230 yards/game and 1.5 TDs/game passing. Drawing from our Home/Road Player Splits and Win/Loss Player Splits tools respectively, we find Lawrence tends to play better at home (5% more fantasy points) and 43% better in games Jaguars win (currently favored by a FG).
- Player: Najee Harris
- Game: Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- DK: $5,800 / FD: $6,500
With their two top defensive players out with injuries, it should be no surprise to find the Cowboys grade as the friendliest DEF vs the run in our Adjusted Line Yard metric. For their part, the Steelers are only about league average in offensive line push so something is going to give here. My money will be on the Steelers giving the rock to Harris in an effort to keep the high-powered Cowboys offense on the sidelines.
- Player: Jerry Jeudy
- Team: Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders
- DK: $5,200 / FD: $5,900
Our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool confirms the Commanders DEF are giving up more points to out wide WRs (25.1) than eight teams are allowing all WRs in total. Both Jerry Jeudy and Amari Cooper (DK: $6,200, FD: $6,200) are in great position to feast but I’ll go with the slightly cheaper option here.
- Player: Brenton Strange
- Team: Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- DK: $3,200 / FD: $5,100
The Colts are giving up the third most DFS points to TEs, 14.7 and 11.7 in DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. Evan Engram is close to returning after logging two limited practices this week. Even if he plays, he won’t be at full speed and Brenton Strange has earned targets while holding down the fort. Strange was anything but in the Jaguars only home game, week two, where he posted his highest target total (6) and highest yards per target total (10.8). Keep an eye on the injury news, or better yet join the Razzball team on the Sunday Live Start/Sit Show (see below) to monitor Engram’s status. If he remains out, this should be a slam dunk.
Prop Plays
Below are some of my favorite prop bets to explore. Shop around for the best odds and if you feel strongly about a few, consider a parlay. Share your favorites in the comments below.
Joe Flacco (Attempts, Yards, 2+ TDs): High volume passing is the key ingredient to beating the Jaguars and who is a more high-volume passer than Joe? There’s a chance Anthony Richardson returns but if they decide to wait an additional week, Flacco may be looking at 50+ attempts. Since I like stats, here’s one to digest: In his starts last season, Flacco had only one game with less than 30 attempts.
D’Andre Swift (Rush + Receiving, Anytime TD): Bobby and I talked about his one on Wednesday night as well. Despite all the evidence pointing to Roschon Johnson cutting into Swift’s workload, it was Swift who dominated snaps and carries, to the tune of 160 total yards and a TD. The Pantehrs are giving up the most fantasy points per game to RBs, including the most RB TDs. NFL coaches would do well to live by the motto: “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
Tank Bigsby (Attempts, Yards): Travis Etienne is still the primary RB for the Jaguars, but Bigsby has been cutting into the workload as of late. It doesn’t hurt to also have a strong 19% broken tackle % and elite 3.9 average yards after contact rate on your side. Regardless of who carries the ball, they’ll be in the most favorable matchup of the week based on our Adjusted Line Yards metric.
Lil’Jordan Humphrey (Receptions, Yards, Anytime TD): Admittedly, this one’s a bit of a stretch but hear me out. The Raiders are 4th best amongst active week five teams in allowing points to slot WRs and Humphrey is the primary option from the slot (if you can call a Broncos WR a “primary option” at all). His prop numbers will be set low and the odds should be very nice, perhaps even worth a low-risk, low-dollar parlay. Just take a look…
Dontayvion Wicks (Receptions, Yards, Anytime TD): With the injury to Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs out, and Jayden Reed running primarily in the slot, Wicks is in the best position to take advantage of the league’s most generous DEF for wideouts. After 13 targets last week, we also know Jordan Love has no issues throwing his way.
Allen Lazard (Receptions, Anytime TD): Chemistry is the buzz word going around NY Jets circles right now. Will Davante Adams be wearing green in the near future? We’ll find out soon. Until then though, the existing chemistry between Aaron Rodgers and Allen Lazard is real and rolling right now, especially when defenses focus on Garrett Wilson.
Mark Andrews (Receptions, Yards & Anytime TD): Yes, you heard me right. It’s time to cash in on Mark Andrews’ early season slump. On DK, for instance, his O/U receptions and yardage prop is currently 2.5 and 24.5, respectively. Add in an anytime TD and you have a nice 3-pick parlay for +350. If you have any faith left in a player who has eight career TDs versus the Bengals, this is worth risking a few coins.
That’s All Folks!
Enjoy the weekend’s game and good luck with your DFS and prop betting. Remember, don’t bet what you don’t have and leave those large GPPs for others…they are a fools bet for most of us. Stick with the action you have the best chance of cashing.
As always, all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com. Also, don’t forget to join the Razzball boys, Bobby (@BobbyLamarco), Sky (@SkyGuasco), Matt (@Stiles08), Jeff (@Jefferson_21) and me each week for our live show. Come for the insight, stay for the fun!
Look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret.
Until next time, my friends!
