Week 7 Starts and Sits: Win/Loss Players Splits

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I want to talk about rankings and how they come into play in my start/sit decisions. I speak primarily to players we might want to fit into a third wide receiver slot or a flex spot in 12-team leagues. For me, this mostly pertains to wide receivers and running backs ranked in the 25-36 range at their position, but not entirely.

With starts, I feel the domain extends outside that range downward: if I want to say I like the 40^th-ranked wide receiver more than the 34^th for example, I’ll feel free to offer up the 40^th-ranked receiver as a start.

For sits, I extend the range upward: if I don’t like the 22^nd-ranked receiver for some reason, I feel free to offer him as a sit.

I like the wide receivers over the running backs because points projections generally favor wide receivers in the 25-36 range over running backs in the 25-36 range: for this week, PPR projections for wide receivers in the 25-36 range are, on average, between 11 and 13 points; for running backs 25-36, the range is 8 to 11.5 points. In my view, the players who can hit or exceed projections with a big play also favor the receivers.

One of the things I love most about RazzballNFL’s projections is scalability: I can swap sorts with a touch and I can see projections for standard (non-PPR), ½ PPR, and PPR leagues side-by-side. That’s only one of the reasons I think a premium membership is worth the investment. Thanks, Rudy.

This week, only two teams, the Chicago Bears and the Dallas Cowboys, are on byes. Next week we get a full slate of games.

The 2024 UK series wraps this week with the New England Patriots visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium in London. That will leave one international game that will be played in Munich, Germany in Week 10.

Let’s get into the players for Week 7.

STARTS

Player: Amari Cooper

Team: Buffalo Bills

Spread: -9.0 vs Tennessee Titans

Win/Loss: +6.8, W/L Index 168

I went back and forth with this one: I generally consider players in their first game with a new team in-season radioactive and Amari Cooper has looked barely engaged for much of the season. I also don’t particularly care for the match-up: Tennessee is consistently 30%/70% man/zone and it works for them. They’re giving up the fewest passing yards per game at 138.8. That they’re giving up 22 points per game is due in part to how turnover-prone their offense has been: the Titans are second-worst in the league at -7 in just five games. Tennessee allows just 10.0 PPR PPG to wideouts and that’s where Cooper lives.

Cooper is not the usual player and the Bills are not the usual team: I think they will have a game plan for Cooper and will try to get him the ball. I think he will be engaged, and where I like Cooper the most: I think he will find the end zone this week for only the second game this season.

The Bills are heavy favorites this week and Amari Cooper is one of the star-level players that helps his team win: the 168 W/L index is not usually this high for a player of this caliber.

There is a precedent: in his first game with Dallas in Week 7 of 2018, Cooper had 8 targets with 5 receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown against the Tennessee Titans in Dallas.

Player: Jordan Addison

Team: Minnesota Vikings

Spread: -2.5 vs Detroit Lions

Win-Loss: -0.5, W/L Index 96

Addison is at or near the top of the WR3 projections this week, and for good reasons: Detroit is a pass-funnel team and number two in PPG allowed to wide receivers this season and are generous no matter where they play. The Vikings receivers move around the formation, but Justin Jefferson and Addison line up wide on about 70% of their snaps. Terrion Arnold (right) and Carlton Davis (left) are predictably lining up wide and on a particular side of the field.

Addison is coming off his highest snap count of the season in Week 5 and has had the bye week to further heal from the injury that kept him out of Weeks 2 and 3.

This game is pick ‘em on a neutral site, and at 96 W/L Index, this is exactly the type of player I want in these scenarios.

Player: Ladd McConkey

Team: Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: -2.5 at Arizona Cardinals

Win/Loss: -2.3, W/L Index 67

I’m not crazy about the Chargers’ passing offense so far in 2024, but to be fair, outside the Carolina Panthers, their opponents have all been ranked in the defensive top third of the NFL against wide receivers. Ladd has been respectable with that and considering he’s a rookie, it’s impressive that he’s their most targeted receiver.

The Arizona Cardinals do not present an upper-third pass defense and they allow the fourth-most PPR PPG to slot receivers. McConkey is there on 70% of his snaps.

As far as Win/Loss goes, I’m willing to overlook a game where the Carolina Panthers weren’t competitive and Justin Herbert only threw 20 passes: McConkey still had a 20% target share even if it did not amount to much (2 receptions for 26 yards).

Considering the Chargers have yet to give up 20 points in a game, I’m surprised this game is booking this closely. Something’s up, and the books are usually on it. There may be fear that Joey Bosa will miss another game.

 

SITS

 Player: George Pickens

Team: Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: +1.5 vs New York Jets

Win-Loss: +5.6, W/L Index 165

 What I said about Michael Pittman Jr. last week applies here: sitting a team’s number-one receiver comes with pitfalls, but while Pickens is more talented than Pittman, the temperaments of the two players are different. Pickens has had two games in WR 2 territory this season. They’ve come in friendlier matchups than this. The Jets have allowed the 2^nd fewest PPR PPG to wide receivers and Pickens lines up wide on 76% of his snaps.

There are wild cards: the Steelers are hinting at changing to Russell Wilson at quarterback. I think this is a plus for Pickens, as many of Pickens’ metrics with Justin Fields are at career lows. Wilson still throws a great deep ball, but I don’t think this is the game to test that.

Michael Carter II ended up missing the Bills game and D.J. Reed left with an injury. I like Brandin Echols: he’s not as good as Reed or Carter are, but he’s versatile. And the Jets’ pass rush should still be effective.

This game should be close. I expect the Steelers to lean on the run. The W/L Index of 165 leads me away from a trailing team in a close game.

Player: Bucky Irving

Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: +3.5 vs Baltimore Ravens

Win-Loss: +2.2, W/L Index 126

 The Buccaneers have had a waiver-wire darling running back two weeks in a row: Sean Tucker in Week 7 and Bucky Irving in Week 6. I don’t think that’s good and that’s even assuming Rachaad White misses their upcoming game again. When I hear things like “Sean deserves more touches” and “three-headed monster,” I’m turned off.

The Bucs had their way with the depleted Saints last week. I don’t think they will with the Ravens who are allowing 9 fewer PPR points, including passing work, to running backs than the Saints are.

Both Irving and Tucker are capable in the passing game, but I don’t think there will be 33 touches to split between them. The only teams that have faced fewer rushing attempts have already had their bye weeks. I won’t blame anyone who wants to flex Irving, but I’m looking elsewhere this week.

Player: Brandon Aiyuk

Team: San Francisco 49ers

Spread: -1.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs

Win-Loss: +2.0, W/L Index 116

 If you roster Brandon Aiyuk, I’m sure you’re aware of what I’m about to say: Brandon Aiyuk has one game with more than 10 PPR points in the 2024 season. He only has two games with more than five targets.

I do think the Chiefs are going to make Brock Purdy beat them through the air, but they allow the third-fewest PPR PPG to wideouts: 12.9. Aiyuk lines out wide on 83% of his snaps, and odds are he’ll see a lot of Nazeeh Johnson whose allowing targets on only 7.9% of routes run and 0.14 FP/RR. Who have the Chiefs faced? Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, and Derek Carr.

I don’t think this is the game Aiyuk gets right.

That’s a wrap for this week. Don’t forget to check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball.com. Follow me on Twitter/X @crewser128. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 7!