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While this year’s wide receiver class is quite weak, most redraft leagues will see 8-10 rookie WRs drafted, with several others in the conversation. So what should you expect from these young guns, and when should you take them in drafts? To find out, we’ll look at rookie receiver production over the last 5-8 years (depending on the round). We’ll also look at when they became a starter (defined as over 70% of snaps) and their rookie production after starting for the first time. As always, hit us up with your questions and thoughts in the comments.

Late 1st round rookies (e.g., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison):

Let’s be very clear, none of this year’s rookies are Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb. While Quentin Johnston has a lot of upside, and the other three 1st rounders should be solid pros, they’re not elite talents who will blow up their rookie season. Without significant luck (such as a slew of injuries ahead of them), these guys all seem headed for, at best, the WR4 region. There’s no shame in that, either.

Players like DJ Moore and Marquise Brown have become very solid fantasy options later in their careers, and that’s right in the range of outcomes for this year’s rookies. But don’t expect more this year. It’s also very possible, if not likely, that most of them could be fantasy irrelevant for 2023. At the earliest, draft these rookies as mid-late round bench fillers with the hope that they break out later in the season.

Player

Year

Draft Pos.

Fantasy Finish (PPR)

1st week over 70% snaps

Fantasy Finish after first start

CeeDee Lamb

2020

1.17

WR20

1

Treylon Burks

2022

1.18

WR85

15

WR78

Kadarius Toney

2021

1.20

WR79

4

WR67

Nelson Agholor

2015

1.20

WR104

1

Jalen Reagor

2020

1.21

WR87

2

WR88

Will Fuller

2016

1.21

WR61

1

Justin Jefferson

2020

1.22

WR8

2

WR4

Josh Doctson

2016

1.22

WR167

Laquon Treadwell

2016

1.23

WR180

DJ Moore

2018

1.24

WR39

7

WR24

Brandon Aiyuk

2020

1.25

WR31

2

WR27

Marquise Brown

2019

1.25

WR44

3

WR60

Calvin Ridley

2018

1.26

WR22

9

WR25

Breshad Perriman

2015

1.26

Injured

Rashad Bateman

2021

1.27

WR73

10

WR45

Phillip Dorsett

2015

1.29

WR116

16

N’Keal Harry

2019

1.32

WR132

11

WR73

 

Early 2nd round rookies (e.g. Jonathan Mingo)

The early second round has been a real sweet spot for fantasy production over the last couple of seasons, but that hasn’t always been the case. While Christian Watson had a massive late-season breakout last year, it’s very rare for players to make a late-season surge, with just as many players regressing after starting Week 1.

This makes projecting Jonathan Mingo very difficult. He seems likely to start alongside DJ Chark and Adam Thielen, meaning there’s an easy path to snaps, but outside Michael Thomas (and Mingo isn’t Michael Thomas), few early second-rounders were so much as a WR3 in fantasy. But the upside is nevertheless there for Mingo to take the Tee Higgins or Deebo Samuel path to be a solid back-end starter who then booms in their second season.

Player

Year

Draft Pos.

Fantasy Finish (PPR)

1st week over 70% snaps

Fantasy Finish after first start

Christian Watson

2022

2A

WR44

10

WR9

Wan’Dale Robinson

2022

2A

WR110

7

WR100

John Metchie

2022

2A

Injured

Elijah Moore

2021

2A

WR43

1

Tee Higgins

2020

2A

WR24

3

WR16

Michael Pittman

2020

2A

WR79

2

WR73

Laviska Shenault

2020

2A

WR49

6

WR73

KJ Hamler

2020

2A

WR81

3

WR78

Deebo Samuel

2019

2A

WR36

1

Courtland Sutton

2018

2A

WR49

2

WR46

Dante Pettis

2018

2A

WR68

1

Christian Kirk

2018

2A

WR55

1

Zay Jones

2017

2A

WR86

1

Curtis Samuel

2017

2A

WR125

9

WR109

Sterling Shepard

2016

2A

WR35

1

Michael Thomas

2016

2A

WR11

1

Devin Smith

2015

2A

WR137

3

WR129

Dorial Green-Beckham

2015

2A

WR64

10

WR47

Devin Funchess

2015

2A

WR82

10

WR62

 

Late 2nd round rookies (e.g., Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice and Marvin Mims)

We’re now very much into crap shoot territory. While AJ Brown, Chase Claypool, Juju Smith-Schuster and DK Metcalf are all notable names who were useful WR3s in their first seasons (with Brown far better late in 2019), there’s a far longer list of players who were essentially useless for fantasy in their rookie years.

Marvin Mims very likely falls into that category and profiles as a low-snap option in 2023, as his brother was in 2020. Jayden Reed and Rashee Rice, though, could easily be Week 1 starters, and that, at the very least, makes them worth taking a gamble on in redraft this year. Just make sure you wait until the later rounds.

Player

Year

Draft Pos.

Fantasy Finish (PPR)

1st week over 70% snaps

Fantasy Finish after first start

Tyquan Thornton

2022

2B

WR97

7

WR98

George Pickens

2022

2B

WR43

1

Alec Pierce

2022

2B

WR63

7

WR78

Skyy Moore

2022

2B

WR120

Rondale Moore

2021

2B

WR57

9

WR87

Dee Eskridge

2021

2B

WR145

14

WR133

Tutu Atwell

2021

2B

Terrace Marshall

2021

2B

WR138

4

WR161

Chase Claypool

2020

2B

WR25

3

WR28

Van Jefferson

2020

2B

WR128

Denzel Mims

2020

2B

WR105

7

WR82

AJ Brown

2019

2B

WR23

10

WR10

Mecole Hardman

2019

2B

WR64

1

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

2019

2B

WR131

2

WR129

Parris Campbell

2019

2B

WR121

Andy Isabella

2019

2B

WR125

DK Metcalf

2019

2B

WR35

1

Anthony Miller

2018

2B

WR59

7

WR38

James Washington

2018

2B

WR131

2

WR130

DJ Chark

2018

2B

WR139

8

WR140

Juju Smith-Schuster

2017

2B

WR30

3

WR27

Tyler Boyd

2016

2B

WR62

1

 

3rd round rookies (e.g., Jalin Hyatt, Tank Dell, Cedric Tillman, Josh Downs, Michael Wilson and Tre Tucker)

This is where things really get ugly, with Cooper Kupp, Terry McLaurin and Diontae Johnson notably bucking the trend by being solid fantasy options in their rookie seasons. Even players like Bryan Edwards and Dyami Brown were Week 1 starters and still couldn’t break the top 140 wide receivers by the end of the season.

So ideally, we’re looking for players in messy situations who can earn a role early in the season. Jalin Hyatt will find it hard to start Week 1 but has the potential to grow into a role. Cedric Tillman, Tank Dell and Michael Wilson meanwhile have three solid starters ahead of them but could get lucky with an injury or a trade. Josh Downs is the popular late-round option here, but he looks more like David Bell than Diontae Johnson.

Oh, and totally ignore Tre Tucker. He’s a special team specialist.

Player

Year

Draft Round

Fantasy Finish (PPR)

1st week over 70% snaps

Fantasy Finish after first start

Velus Jones

2022

3

WR146

Jalen Tolbert

2022

3

WR195

David Bell

2022

3

WR116

15

WR124

Danny Gray

2022

3

WR197

Josh Palmer

2021

3

WR89

13

WR42

Dyami Brown

2021

3

WR143

1

Amari Rodgers

2021

3

WR180

Nico Collins

2021

3

WR97

13

WR56

Anthony Schwartz

2021

3

WR137

Bryan Edwards

2020

3

WR151

1

Devin Duvernay

2020

3

WR114

11

WR132

Diontae Johnson

2019

3

WR41

3

WR31

Jalen Hurd

2019

3

Injured

Terry McLaurin

2019

3

WR25

1

Miles Boykin

2019

3

WR106

Michael Gallup

2018

3

WR77

6

WR60

Tre’Quan Smith

2018

3

WR76

6

WR73

Cooper Kupp

2017

3

WR24

4

WR21

Taywan Taylor

2017

3

WR102

ArDarius Stewart

2017

3

WR159

Carlos Henderson

2017

3

Injured

Chris Godwin

2017

3

WR85

9

WR60

Kenny Golladay

2017

3

WR76

12

WR61

Chad Williams

2017

3

WR160

Amara Darboh

2017

3

WR148

 

Day 3 rookies (e.g., Derius Davis, Charlie Jones, Tyler Scott, Justin Shorter, Dontayvion Wicks, Puka Nacua, Parker Washington, Kayshon Boutte, Trey Palmer, AT Perry and more)

The list below doesn’t look too bad until you realize it’s only the players in the last five years who finished in the top 100 after their first start. There were another 73 players who didn’t even make the list. That means under 20% of Day 3 picks will be even a Top 100 player at any time during their rookie season. Eeeeek.

So while Amon-Ra St Brown, Darius Slayton and Gabe Davis make taking a late-rounder look appealing, it very rarely pans out. Unless you’re playing in a very deep league, there’s no reason to take a risk on the hot redraft names from this year in Kayshon Boutte and Puka Nacua.

Player

Year

Draft Round

Fantasy Finish (PPR)

1st week over 70% snaps

Fantasy Finish after first start

Romeo Doubs

2022

4

WR66

3

WR64

Amon-Ra St Brown

2021

4

WR30

4

WR19

Gabriel Davis

2020

4

WR54

3

WR49

Keke Coutee

2018

4

WR96

4

WR85

Antonio Callaway

2018

4

WR62

2

WR58

DaeSean Hamilton

2018

4

WR108

12

WR38

Collin Johnson

2020

5

WR102

11

WR70

Darnell Mooney

2020

5

WR50

4

WR53

Hunter Renfrow

2019

5

WR61

2

WR56

Darius Slayton

2019

5

WR37

6

WR24

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

2018

5

WR67

4

WR47

Kelvin Harmon

2019

6

WR94

10

WR64

Equanimious St Brown

2018

6

WR110

5

WR85

Olabisi Johnson

2019

7

WR87

7

WR70

Marcell Ateman

2018

7

WR130

10

WR81

 

There are a lot of rookie wide receivers who will tempt you in your redraft leagues. Their new names make them appealing to some but don’t pay their inflated prices. Trust in the known commodities and fill your bench with solid starters. Check out my rankings and other articles at ffdfantasyfootball.com, or if you have any thoughts or questions, you can find me @thefantasyfirstdown on Instagram (where I answer all questions) and @fantasyfirstdwn on Twitter. Next week, I’ll be looking at the tight ends.