What to Expect from Rookie Wide Receivers

While this year’s wide receiver class is quite weak, most redraft leagues will see 8-10 rookie WRs drafted, with several others in the conversation. So what should you expect from these young guns, and when should you take them in drafts? To find out, we’ll look at rookie receiver production over the last 5-8 years (depending on the round). We’ll also look at when they became a starter (defined as over 70% of snaps) and their rookie production after starting for the first time. As always, hit us up with your questions and thoughts in the comments.

Late 1^st round rookies (e.g., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison):

Let’s be very clear, none of this year’s rookies are Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb. While Quentin Johnston has a lot of upside, and the other three 1^st rounders should be solid pros, they’re not elite talents who will blow up their rookie season. Without significant luck (such as a slew of injuries ahead of them), these guys all seem headed for, at best, the WR4 region. There’s no shame in that, either.

Players like DJ Moore and Marquise Brown have become very solid fantasy options later in their careers, and that’s right in the range of outcomes for this year’s rookies. But don’t expect more this year. It’s also very possible, if not likely, that most of them could be fantasy irrelevant for 2023. At the earliest, draft these rookies as mid-late round bench fillers with the hope that they break out later in the season.

Early 2^nd round rookies (e.g. Jonathan Mingo)

The early second round has been a real sweet spot for fantasy production over the last couple of seasons, but that hasn’t always been the case. While Christian Watson had a massive late-season breakout last year, it’s very rare for players to make a late-season surge, with just as many players regressing after starting Week 1.

This makes projecting Jonathan Mingo very difficult. He seems likely to start alongside DJ Chark and Adam Thielen, meaning there’s an easy path to snaps, but outside Michael Thomas (and Mingo isn’t Michael Thomas), few early second-rounders were so much as a WR3 in fantasy. But the upside is nevertheless there for Mingo to take the Tee Higgins or Deebo Samuel path to be a solid back-end starter who then booms in their second season.

Late 2^nd round rookies (e.g., Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice and Marvin Mims)

We’re now very much into crap shoot territory. While AJ Brown, Chase Claypool, Juju Smith-Schuster and DK Metcalf are all notable names who were useful WR3s in their first seasons (with Brown far better late in 2019), there’s a far longer list of players who were essentially useless for fantasy in their rookie years.

Marvin Mims very likely falls into that category and profiles as a low-snap option in 2023, as his brother was in 2020. Jayden Reed and Rashee Rice, though, could easily be Week 1 starters, and that, at the very least, makes them worth taking a gamble on in redraft this year. Just make sure you wait until the later rounds.

3^rd round rookies (e.g., Jalin Hyatt, Tank Dell, Cedric Tillman, Josh Downs, Michael Wilson and Tre Tucker)

This is where things really get ugly, with Cooper Kupp, Terry McLaurin and Diontae Johnson notably bucking the trend by being solid fantasy options in their rookie seasons. Even players like Bryan Edwards and Dyami Brown were Week 1 starters and still couldn’t break the top 140 wide receivers by the end of the season.

So ideally, we’re looking for players in messy situations who can earn a role early in the season. Jalin Hyatt will find it hard to start Week 1 but has the potential to grow into a role. Cedric Tillman, Tank Dell and Michael Wilson meanwhile have three solid starters ahead of them but could get lucky with an injury or a trade. Josh Downs is the popular late-round option here, but he looks more like David Bell than Diontae Johnson.

Oh, and totally ignore Tre Tucker. He’s a special team specialist.

Day 3 rookies (e.g., Derius Davis, Charlie Jones, Tyler Scott, Justin Shorter, Dontayvion Wicks, Puka Nacua, Parker Washington, Kayshon Boutte, Trey Palmer, AT Perry and more)

The list below doesn’t look too bad until you realize it’s only the players in the last five years who finished in the top 100 after their first start. There were another 73 players who didn’t even make the list. That means under 20% of Day 3 picks will be even a Top 100 player at any time during their rookie season. Eeeeek.

So while Amon-Ra St Brown, Darius Slayton and Gabe Davis make taking a late-rounder look appealing, it very rarely pans out. Unless you’re playing in a very deep league, there’s no reason to take a risk on the hot redraft names from this year in Kayshon Boutte and Puka Nacua.

There are a lot of rookie wide receivers who will tempt you in your redraft leagues. Their new names make them appealing to some but don’t pay their inflated prices. Trust in the known commodities and fill your bench with solid starters. Check out my rankings and other articles at ffdfantasyfootball.com, or if you have any thoughts or questions, you can find me @thefantasyfirstdown on Instagram (where I answer all questions) and @fantasyfirstdwn on Twitter. Next week, I’ll be looking at the tight ends.