I am back as your pilot, highlighting my favorite WR starts and sits for Week 4, utilizing Razzball’s Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide and our Defense Slot vs. Wide. The Slot vs Wide chart breaks down how many fantasy points a wide receiver has scored so far this season from the slot vs. out wide. With three weeks under our belts, the sample size is growing, and trends are starting to emerge.
Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool | RB Zone vs. Gap Rushing | DEF Zone vs. Gap Rushing |
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Starts
- Player: Keenan Allen
- Opponent: at NY Giants
Allen returns to old ways as Justin Herbert’s favorite target with a team-high 28 targets through three weeks. He gets an advantageous matchup against the New York Giants, who allow the third-most points to WRs. I’ll one-up that stat; the G-Men also give up 16.9 points per game, the second-most in the NFL to slot WRs. Allen thrives in the slot, scoring 28.2 points in the slot, equating to 50% of his total output this season. Add in the first starts of Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo’s career, and we may have ourselves a thrilling game keeping Allen busy in the slot.
- Player: Drake London
- Opponent: vs. Commanders
I am expecting a bounce back for the entire Falcons’ offense. For that to occur, Michael Penix and London will need to get on the same page. Luckily, the Commanders are rolling to Atlanta, who are letting WRs score fantasy points at the eighth-highest rate this season. London excels on the outside in formations, tallying 78% of his fantasy points (24.9), where Washington is most generous, allowing 62% of fantasy points (26.9) to opposing WRs. Last week wasn’t ideal for the Falcons’ receiving corps against Carolina, as they’re surprisingly the third-best defense against WRs. According to our Home vs. Away tool, London averages five more points at home. Take that nugget for what it’s worth.
WR3 Starts (WRs ranked outside the top 25)
- Player: Matthew Golden
- Opponent: at Cowboys
The Packers face the Cowboys at the most opportune time following an ugly loss to the Browns in Week 3. Golden returns to the Lone Star State, facing a Dallas defense that concedes the most TDs (6) to WRs. The former Longhorn had his best game as a pro with 52 yards, securing all four targets. I look for him to build on that performance as the Cowboys are giving an NFL-high 34.9 points to WRs out wide. Through three games, he is scoring 87% of his fantasy points split wide. Factor in Jayden Reed is out, and Tucker Kraft may not be 100%, Golden is poised for a big game and should score his first TD of his career.
- Player: Jameson Williams
- Opponent: vs. Browns
Cleveland is allowing 35.1 total points to WRs, ranking 12th. Interestingly, the Dawg Pound is giving up 30.1 points on the perimeter, the third-highest mark in the league, but just 4.9 points from the slot, the second lowest. Williams’ fantasy value is driven by 64% usage out wide for the Lions. Amon-Ra St. Brown dominated on MNF due to his slot advantage against the Ravens. After totaling 43 yards on the first drive on MNF, Williams was nowhere to be found after that. That should change against Cleveland as his strengths are their weaknesses.
Sits
- Player: Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Opponent: vs. Seahawks
Not so Marvelous since Week 1, averaging a mere six points per game in unfavorable matchups. Things do not get any easier for the second-year WR against the Seahawks, who are permitting the third-fewest points (12.8) to WRs lined out wide. 79% of Harrison Jr’s production is out wide, which is concerning in a TNF game. In two games against Seattle last season, he did not eclipse 50 yards or score a TD. I think we’re at the point of benching him in tough matchups and starting him in favorable ones. Don’t let him lay a dud in your lineup before our Sunday Start/Sit Show on YouTube!
- Player: Xavier Worthy
- Opponent: vs. Ravens
The recommendation for Worthy is based on data from last season and this season. Worthy is set to return after dislocating his shoulder in Week 1. So far this season, Marquise Brown has taken the most snaps from the slot with 50, around 43% of his total snaps, despite Brown running 56% of his routes out wide last season. Tyquan Thornton is the second on the team in routes with 71% out wide. Worthy’s speed is best utilized out wide alongside Thornton, where he ran 63% of his routes last season. Hollywood should continue to operate in the slot, where the Ravens are most exploitable, giving up the fifth-most points in the slot. Look back no further than to St. Brown on MNF. I am forecasting that Worthy will be used as a decoy in his first game back. I am not risking the biscuit.
WR Slot vs. Wide Prediction
- Player: Wan’Dale Robinson
- Opponent: vs. LA Chargers
I couldn’t be more excited about the Giants for our ol’ pal, Bobby LaMarco. Robinson is scoring the most points from the slot in fantasy to date. He’s facing the Chargers, which sets him up for a positive game script, as most expect the Giants to play from behind. Meanwhile, the Bolts allow up the fourth-most points to slot WRs this season, which is where Robinson shines as the best in the business. This is an ideal matchup on paper, where you want to thrust bench players into your starting lineup. Do you have the guts to do it?
| Download Table as CSV | |||
| Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output | |||
| # | Defense | Total PPG Allowed | Slot PPG Allowed | Wide PPG Allowed | Slot% | Wide% | Next Opp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARZ | 27.1 | 8.3 | 18.9 | 29% | 71% | LA | |
| ATL | 37.4 | 9.4 | 28.0 | 23% | 77% | SEA | |
| BLT | 31.4 | 9.4 | 21.9 | 32% | 68% | PIT | |
| BUF | 25.2 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 49% | 51% | CIN | |
| CAR | 29.7 | 11.4 | 18.3 | 38% | 62% | BYE | |
| CHI | 34.9 | 11.2 | 23.7 | 37% | 63% | GB | |
| CIN | 18.4 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 34% | 66% | BUF | |
| CLV | 20.2 | 5.6 | 14.6 | 44% | 56% | TEN | |
| DAL | 37.2 | 11.3 | 25.8 | 27% | 73% | DET | |
| DEN | 29.3 | 9.5 | 19.8 | 41% | 59% | LV | |
| DET | 36.1 | 10.2 | 25.9 | 28% | 72% | DAL | |
| GB | 26.2 | 6.1 | 20.1 | 21% | 79% | CHI | |
| HST | 24.0 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 45% | 55% | KC | |
| IND | 32.5 | 14.3 | 18.2 | 46% | 54% | JAX | |
| JAX | 28.0 | 8.6 | 19.4 | 35% | 65% | IND | |
| KC | 28.4 | 8.5 | 19.9 | 32% | 68% | HST | |
| LA | 31.4 | 10.7 | 20.8 | 30% | 70% | ARZ | |
| LAC | 23.1 | 7.9 | 15.2 | 35% | 65% | PHI | |
| LV | 36.5 | 13.6 | 23.0 | 37% | 63% | DEN | |
| MIA | 26.1 | 10.9 | 15.2 | 45% | 55% | NYJ | |
| MIN | 23.2 | 8.5 | 14.7 | 38% | 62% | WAS | |
| NE | 27.5 | 11.4 | 16.0 | 43% | 57% | BYE | |
| NO | 24.7 | 6.0 | 18.8 | 30% | 70% | TB | |
| NYG | 33.1 | 10.3 | 22.8 | 29% | 71% | BYE | |
| NYJ | 27.0 | 8.4 | 18.6 | 30% | 70% | MIA | |
| PHI | 28.3 | 6.8 | 21.6 | 29% | 71% | LAC | |
| PIT | 35.6 | 12.8 | 22.8 | 33% | 67% | BLT | |
| SEA | 20.7 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 45% | 55% | ATL | |
| SF | 37.6 | 18.6 | 19.0 | 50% | 50% | BYE | |
| TB | 36.9 | 13.6 | 23.3 | 42% | 58% | NO | |
| TEN | 39.4 | 13.3 | 26.1 | 33% | 67% | CLV | |
| WAS | 38.7 | 15.7 | 23.0 | 40% | 60% | MIN | |
| NFL Average | 29.9 | 10.4 | 19.5 | 36% | 64% |
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