We’re back for Week 7! I want to give a shout to Derek for holding the fort down last week for the Week 6 Slot vs. Wide breakdown. Let’s review my favorite WR starts and sits for Week 7, utilizing Razzball’s Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide and our Defense Slot vs. Wide. The Slot vs Wide chart breaks down how many fantasy points a wide receiver has scored so far this season from the slot vs. out wide. With three weeks under our belts, the sample size is growing, and trends are starting to emerge.
Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool | RB Zone vs. Gap Rushing | DEF Zone vs. Gap Rushing |
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Starts
- Player: Courtland Sutton
- Opponent: at Seattle
Chicken Jockey, who? The Broncos’ passing attack needs a horse jockey to get them back on track. You might be wondering why I’m recommending Sutton after his putrid performance across the pond in Week 6. First, he’s facing the Giants, who are allowing the fourth-most points to WRs, at a 60/40 split. Sutton fits the bill to take advantage of New York as he produces 64% out wide and 36% in the slot. After a season-low one catch for 6 yards in Week 2, he followed up with his outing of the season, posting six grabs for 118 yards with one score on eight targets. I am expecting a big bucking bounce back as Sutton is averaging 19.73 PPR points in four games when you take out his stinkers.
- Player: Jaylen Waddle
- Opponent: at Cleveland
Get ready for a penguin enclosure at the Dawg Pound. Since Tyreek Hill went down, Waddle has posted consecutive games with at least six receptions, 95 yards, eight targets, and has scored one TD. He’s producing 88% of his fantasy points out wide, where the Browns allow the fifth-most points out wide with 25.1 points. Last week, DK Metcalf torched Cleveland for four catches with 95 yards and one TD. Metcalf is similar to Waddle, scoring 84% of his fantasy points out wide. Waddle feels a smash play.
WR3 Starts (WRs ranked outside the top 25)
- Player: Elic Ayomanor
- Opponent: vs. Patriots
This is a risky start based on the Titans’ play, but after firing their head coach, I think they’ll be fired up. Calvin Ridley is very questionable to play with a hamstring injury, thus elevating Ayomanor to the WR1 role. He’s already outscoring Ridley through six weeks. The rookie WR is generating 90% of his production lined out wide. Fortunately for him, the Patriots permit the eighth-most points out wide at 24.0 points per game. Over New England’s three-game winning streak, the opposing WR1 is being targeted nine times, which would rank eighth among all WRs. Ayomanor and Ridley combine to average 11 targets per game. You can do the math.
- Player: Tez Johnson
- Opponent: at Detroit
Due to all the injuries in the Tampa Bay WR corps, it was Johnson who led all WRs in snaps and routes while grabbing a 45-yard TD in Week 6. He’s also contributed back-to-back games with at least 45 days and three targets. It’s hard not to trust Baker Mayfield against the Lions, who allow the fifth-most points to wideouts and the ninth-most in the slot. Johnson has scored 80% of his points from slot, but could be used all over the formation should the Bucs rule out Emeka Egbuka, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin. I wouldn’t overlook Sterling Shepard, but Johnson feels like the play if Evans returns.
Sits
- Player: Michael Pittman Jr.
- Opponent: at LA Chargers
Pittman was the Thoroughbred WR for the Colts from Weeks 1 through 3, averaging 15.8 points, good for the WR12. Over his last three games, he’s averaging 33 yards, but two TDs have vaulted him to the WR29. His teammate Josh Downs is the WR30 during that span. In Week 7, he faces a Chargers’ defense that’s allowing the sixth-fewest points to WRs on the perimeter. Pittman’s fanatsy output is reliant when he’s lined out wide. He averages 12.1 points on the outside, which accounts for 89% of total scoring. I am not betting on this horse to return to his early-season success in a poor matchup if Downs is sidelined. Expect plenty of double coverage.
- Player: Wan’Dale Robinson
- Opponent: at Denver
The de facto #1 WR for Jaxson Dart is in a tough spot in Week 7. He scored a 35-yard TD last week and is coming off consecutive games with seven targets. The Broncos allow the second fewest points to WRs and the 12th fewest to slot WRs. Robinson makes his living from the slot, scoring 81% of his points while averaging 10.3 points, the second-most in the NFL. Looking back, when he faced a top defense to WRs in Week 3 (KC) and Week 4 (LAC), he totaled four catches for 40 yards. Robinson is more Smurf than Giant in Week 7.
WR Slot vs. Wide Prediction
- Player: Tetairoa McMillan
- Opponent: at New York Jets
The hype train couldn’t be higher for McMillan following his first two TDs in his young career. If we’re being honest, outside of those TDs, he tallied 29 yards against Dallas, who allows the most points to WRs. This week, McMillan faces off against Sauce Gardner and a Jets defense that permits the sixth-fewest points to WRs and the seventh-fewest out wide. I am worried the rookie will struggle as other WR1s have this season. It’s best to keep this Panther caged up on your bench.
| Download Table as CSV | |||
| Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output | |||
| # | Defense | Total PPG Allowed | Slot PPG Allowed | Wide PPG Allowed | Slot% | Wide% | Next Opp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARZ | 28.9 | 10.5 | 18.4 | 34% | 66% | ATL | |
| ATL | 41.7 | 9.2 | 32.5 | 20% | 80% | ARZ | |
| BLT | 28.6 | 8.8 | 19.8 | 31% | 69% | NE | |
| BUF | 25.7 | 11.1 | 14.6 | 42% | 58% | CLV | |
| CAR | 31.6 | 12.3 | 19.3 | 39% | 61% | TB | |
| CHI | 29.7 | 14.0 | 15.7 | 46% | 54% | GB | |
| CIN | 18.4 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 32% | 68% | MIA | |
| CLV | 19.0 | 6.4 | 12.7 | 47% | 53% | BUF | |
| DAL | 37.2 | 13.4 | 23.8 | 32% | 68% | LAC | |
| DEN | 30.0 | 10.7 | 19.3 | 38% | 62% | JAX | |
| DET | 41.8 | 13.0 | 28.9 | 32% | 68% | PIT | |
| GB | 32.5 | 10.2 | 22.3 | 23% | 77% | CHI | |
| HST | 24.3 | 10.4 | 13.9 | 42% | 58% | LV | |
| IND | 32.1 | 12.1 | 19.9 | 40% | 60% | SF | |
| JAX | 31.5 | 10.7 | 20.9 | 35% | 65% | DEN | |
| KC | 31.7 | 9.5 | 22.2 | 32% | 68% | TEN | |
| LA | 38.2 | 9.1 | 29.1 | 24% | 76% | SEA | |
| LAC | 21.3 | 7.1 | 14.2 | 35% | 65% | DAL | |
| LV | 31.6 | 9.1 | 22.6 | 32% | 68% | HST | |
| MIA | 28.5 | 10.7 | 17.8 | 37% | 63% | CIN | |
| MIN | 20.0 | 6.8 | 13.2 | 37% | 63% | NYG | |
| NE | 29.0 | 12.7 | 16.3 | 48% | 52% | BLT | |
| NO | 26.0 | 6.4 | 19.6 | 29% | 71% | NYJ | |
| NYG | 33.1 | 11.1 | 22.1 | 32% | 68% | MIN | |
| NYJ | 25.7 | 8.2 | 17.5 | 30% | 70% | NO | |
| PHI | 22.0 | 4.8 | 17.2 | 28% | 72% | WAS | |
| PIT | 25.0 | 11.4 | 13.7 | 35% | 65% | DET | |
| SEA | 18.7 | 6.3 | 12.3 | 29% | 71% | LA | |
| SF | 30.6 | 13.4 | 17.3 | 42% | 58% | IND | |
| TB | 31.9 | 11.2 | 20.7 | 40% | 60% | CAR | |
| TEN | 36.6 | 12.1 | 24.5 | 31% | 69% | KC | |
| WAS | 33.6 | 10.3 | 23.3 | 30% | 70% | PHI | |
| NFL Average | 29.3 | 10.0 | 19.3 | 35% | 65% |
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