Zone vs. Gap Rushing – Week 4

So now we’re a couple weeks into our new Zone vs. Gap Rushing Tool and the data is starting to normalize.  To gauge the value, I’m going to review the recommendations from last week and see how they turned out.  It’s important to know if it’s predictive or not. 

This week, the data we’re drawing from represents Weeks 1 – 3, so we’re getting even closer to having statistically supported values.  I’m eager to see if the trends I started to see last week are holding up. 

As always, you can view the Defensive Zone vs. Gap splits HERE and the RB Zone vs. Gap splits HERE.  I’ll add the former table to the bottom of this article.  For RB-specific numbers, go to the tool.  Remember, it’s FREE!

Also, if you want a short refresher (or tutorial, if you’re new to this tool) on the table, simply go back to my previous article HERE.         

Before we get to Week 4, another quick message from our sponsor:

 

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Review of Week 3 Analysis

Zone Matchups:

• Miami (vs. Buffalo)
  • Analysis: “The Bills defense stopped some of the leaks we saw in Week 1, but the Jets were still able to reach the century mark. Miami is up next, where De’Vone Achane (61% Zone) will look to exploit the Bills still giving up over 58% there.”
  • Result: The Bills surrendered 100 yards rushing (62% to Zone) to Achane and Gordon. Achane (67% Zone) and Gordon (56% Zone).  That’s a WIN!
• Pittsburgh (vs. New England)
  • Analysis: “The data suggests this is the best zone RB matchup to exploit as the Steelers RBs gain over 56% of their designed rushing yards behind zone blocking while the Patriots give up over 60% of their yards to that scheme. Both Jaylen Warren (52% Zone) and Kenneth Gainwell (67% Zone) look to benefit.”
  • Result: The Steelers game planning followed script with Warren’s yardage from designed rushes topping 83% Zone. The Patriots did a decent job limiting total yards but the results show over 69% of those yards they did surrender were to Zone blocking.  That’s another win.      
• Washington (vs. Las Vegas)
  • Analysis: “The Commander’s primary Zone rusher is lost for the season. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (7% Zone) will need to start carving out that role against one of the stingiest defenses vs. Zone blocking (Raiders are ranked #3 at just 27% Zone rushing allowed).”
  • Result: This one was a “Zone Matchup to Avoid” and it played out that way. The Commanders used a backfield by committee and the Zone rushing percentages fell this way:  Jacory Croskey-Merritt (2/8 attempts or 25%), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (3/11 attempts or 27%), Marcus Mariota (1/6 attempts or 17%) and Jeremy McNichols (3/4 attempts or 75%).  As a team, that comes to just 31%.  For their part, the Raiders D gave up a ton of yards in total but like we just saw, that equaled 31% to Zone blocking.  Rushing yards from Gap blocking led the way at over 59% (118 yards).  Yet another win! The morale of this story though is to start your Gap rushers versus the Raiders!    
• In other matchups…
  • The Bears were an “exploit” matchup. D’Andre Swift posted just 13 rushes with just 54% Zone attempts (came into the game at 72% Zone).  As a team, the Bears RBs ran designed Zone rushes at a 47% clip.  They also averaged 2.6 yards per attempt.  (insert “shaking my head” emoji).       
  • The Chiefs were an “avoid” matchup. Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco teamed up to disregard the numbers and ran Zone 14 of 20 attempts (70%) for only 79 total yards.  I’ll talk with Andy Reid… 
  • Denver was the other Zone matchup that I suggested tempering expectations since the Chargers “are showing to be stingy both ways.” Turns out they were just that, giving up just 35 yards to Zone attempts and 15 yards to Gap attempts.  Dobbins and Harvey came in at 43% and 45% Zone, respectively and teamed up to run Zone in 47% of attempts – almost like this was predicted!       

I covered all 6 Zone matchups from last week and all 6 bore out in some regard.  Not too bad!  Let’s see if the Gap matchup recommendations followed suit.

Gap Matchups:

• Green Bay (vs. Cleveland)
  • Analysis: “The Packers Defense has been grabbing the headlines, but Josh Jacobs (52% Gap) still commands the backfield. Like we just discussed, the Browns D is about league average in stopping Gap rushers.  If you roster Jacobs, you don’t need me to tell you to start him.”
  • Result: The Pack limited Jacob’s Gap rushing to just 38% and the league-average Browns Gap D stepped up to limit Jacobs to just 30 yards total. You can do the math.  Like so many others (I’m talking to you Survivor Pool players), we didn’t predict this one correctly. 
• Jacksonville (vs. Houston)
  • Analysis: “If you look on the chart, you note both teams come in together. The percentages say to run Nick Chubb (68% Gap) vs. the Jags D (ranked 16^th in Gap yards allowed) but I prefer Travis Etienne Jr. (40% Gap) vs the Texans D (ranked last at 61% Gap rushing allowed) just a little better – if the cats promise to play to their advantage.  Will they?”  
  • Result: Well, the answer is “yes” and “no”. Jags RBs (Etienne Jr. and Tuten) combined for 41% Gap, which is in line with Etienne Jr’s numbers coming in but the Texans held them to just 29 yards (or 38% of total yards) on those carries.  The Jags didn’t rack up a ton of yards but both RBs averaged 3.5 yards per attempt and a TD.  It just feels like they left some meat on this bone.    
• Chicago (vs. Dallas)
  • Analysis: “I already talked about the advantage Swift has in Zone blocking schemes. It’ll have to carry the day (see what I did there?) because his Gap rushing (24% Gap) against a top 5 defense vs Gap rushing, is not going to cut it.”
  • Result: Remember the “shaking my head” emoji from above? Insert it here too.  I told them to focus on Zone rushing because the Cowboys D is top 5 vs. Gap rushing.  So, what did the Bears do?  They had Caleb Williams throw the ball 28 times (and 5 rushing attempts) for 298 yards and 4 TDs.  I guess that works too.  To close the circle here, the Bears RB Zone/Gap splits here were 47% and 53%, respectively.  Sure, they got the W but they didn’t my follow directions!         
• In other matchups…
  • I suggested the Patriots should limit Gap rushing since they’ve had little success (just 29% of their designed yards per game to Gap rushing coming in) and the Steelers having one of the best Gap rushing defenses in the league. You can argue the turnovers really did the Patriots in this game but to my point, TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson combining for 10 of their 15 rushing attempts behind Gap blocking was not the right answer.  True to form, the Steelers allowed just 19% of total rushing yards to the Gap scheme.
  • The Chiefs came in as the #2 defense in limiting Gap rushing. Cam Skattebo ran for 60 yards and a TD.  Guess what percent was Gap rushing?  Come on, take a guess?  It was just 10%.  The Giants had other reasons for losing that game, but Skattebo was one of the few bright spots.  I won’t take all the credit, but…  
  • I’m not going to linger on the Cardinals analysis from last week. I’m still reeling from the James Conner injury.  I’ll just note that this was a “Gap to exploit” matchup and Trey Benson averaged 70% of his designed runs to Gap blocking.  He also averaged 4.2 yards per attempt.  Coincidence? 

I won’t look back at every game each week, but I thought it was important to evaluate this tool (and myself) at this early stage in predicting which matchups to exploit and avoid.  For the most part, we were on the money. 

Assuming the teams cooperate moving forward, we may really have something here!

(bold and underlined for effect)

So, now it’s time to shift to the new week.       

 

Week 4 Matchups

Zone Matchups to Exploit

• Pittsburgh (vs. Minnesota): Once again, the Steelers RBs come in as one of the best Zone RB matchups to exploit.  This time, over the Vikings defense. Adding in last week’s games, the Steelers Zone % bumps up from 56% to 61%.  To their credit, the data against the Vikings rushing defense is correcting after the Bijan beatdown in Week 2.  Bottling up the Bengals RBs will help do that.  Still, the Vikings are giving up 65% of their rushing yards to Zone blocking.  Jaylen Warren (65% Zone) is no Bijan and I’m not saying he’s going to blow up, but he stands to have a decent rushing day in Dublin.
• Seattle (vs. Arizona): Here’s another Zone frequent flyer.  Seattle loves Zone rushing (61%) and the Cardinals rank 26^th (54% Zone) in the league.  Kenneth Walker III (56% Zone) gets his running mate, Zach Charbonnet (78% Zone), back this week too. 
• Carolina (vs. New England): Yes, I’m going chalk on this one.  The Panthers (51% Zone overall) and Chuba Hubbard (60% Zone) draw the 31^st ranked Patriots defense allowing Zone rushing (63% Zone).  New England is pretty good against the run overall, so don’t bet the house on Chuba, but there is some space there for him to rack up a decent yardage game and hopefully, a TD.     

 

Gap Matchups to Exploit

• Cincinnati (vs. Denver): I’m going out on a limb for this one.  Remarkedly, this is the 3^rd best Gap matchup on the week.  That’s because the Bengals run behind Gap blocking at a 40% clip (10^th most) and the Broncos allow the most Gap yards in the league (57%).  Yes, I had to look twice on this one too.  Chase Brown (47% Gap and 43% Zone) has been utterly dreadful so far and has yet to top the century mark in total yards.  I’m going out on a limb that he breaks through this weekend.  Hey, I never said it was a weak limb…
• Tennessee (vs. Houston): It’s really hard to find good Gap matchups so I’ll reach for another one here.  Tennessee runs behind Gap blocking almost as much as behind Zone blocking.  Tony Pollard is essentially doing all the work here.  The Texans are ranked 31^st for allowing over 53% of rushing yards to Gap blocking.  That is significant only because they’re allowing about half as much to Zone blocking schemes.      

 

Zone Matchups to Avoid

• Houston (vs. Tennessee): The Texans offense ranks 28^th in Zone rushing (30%) and the Titans are only allowing 35% designed rushing yards to Zone blocking.  That doesn’t bode particularly well for Woody Marks who is beginning to emerge for the Texans but currently running behind more Zone (50%) packages than Gap (36%).    
• Tennessee (vs. Houston): In the same game, the Titans offense ranks 23^rd in Zone rushing (40%) but Houston is ranked 2^nd best in limiting Zone yardage (24.5 yards per game).  Tony Pollard’s numbers are 53% Zone and 40% Gap.  Since I included Tennessee in the Gap matchup above, I hope the Titans analytics department is paying attention…LESS ZONE BLOCKING AND MORE GAP BLOCKING!
• New England (vs. Carolina): The last one I’ll hit here are the Patriots and Panthers.  This one is pretty clear to see.  As a team, the Patriots rank the 3^rd lowest percent rushing in designed Zone blocking schemes.  The Panthers are a little better than league average in limiting Zone rushing.  There may be something here if the Patriots had a strong rushing attack, but at this point, we’re not even sure who’s going to get most of the carries – (Stevenson – 32% Zone, TreVeyon Henderson – 42% Zone, or Antonio Gibson – 38% Zone).     

 

Gap Matchups to Avoid

• Washington (vs. Atlanta): Although it’s the #1 matchup on paper based on Gap rushing percentage (see “Top 10” table above), I’m in avoid mode here.  The Commanders offense rush behind Gap blocking 53% of designed rushes and the Falcons defense is allowing 45% (versus just 23% to Zone) of designed rushing yards to Gap.  That said, the uncertainty of the Commanders’ backfield, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt (86% Gap), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (73% Gap), and Jeremy McNichols (63% Gap) all taking carries makes me leery to make a recommendation.  The numbers suggest there’s potential as a team, but who do we trust individually?    
• New York Giants (vs. Los Angeles Chargers): Cam Skattebo is one of the new shiny RB toys for us fantasy children.  However, the polish may be a little dull this weekend versus the Chargers who are top 6 in limiting Gap rushing.  The Giants are only running this scheme 21% of the time.  If that gives you hope, then I’m here for you.  However, I’m tempering expectation with young Cam.
• Pittsburgh (vs. Minnesota): As you already read, I have this matchup as a “Zone matchup to exploit” above.  Now, it’s a “Gap matchup to avoid” here.  You see the pattern?  The Vikings are 4^th best in limiting Gap rushing yards.  The Steelers run behind Gap rushing just 28% of the time.  That’s 23^rd best for those keeping score at home.  Good thing for Steelers fans that Warren runs behind Gap rushing half as often and Kenneth Gainwell is even less.    

That’s All Folks

Three weeks in and this new Zone vs. Gap rushing data is earning its money.  Well, it’s free but you get the idea.  I was sincerely surprised in how well it predicted some of those Week 3 matchups discussed above.  Let’s hope we see more of the same in Week 4.  Again, if you need a quick tutorial on this new tool, just go back to the original article HERE.  Of course, you can just ask me for help in the comments below too…but my ultimate goal is to teach you how to use the tool to your advantage.    

You also know by now that all the RazzballNFL staff is here to help.  Be sure to read our daily articles and especially join us on gameday morning for the Razzball Sunday Start/Sit show.  We had a great turnout last Sunday and some of those questions really challenged us.  Keep bringing it! 

Join us this week when the show airs LIVE on the Razzball YouTube channel this Sunday from 11:00 am EDT (8:00 PDT) right up right up to gametime.  Sky – @SkyGuasco, Matt – @Stiles08, Dave – @Crewser128, Jeff – @Jefferson__21 and I will be there to answer all your fantasy football questions.  Don’t miss it.   

As always, look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret.  I’m also on BlueSky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).

Until next time, my friends.