Another great fantasy football week for your favorite RazzballNFL writer. In the home league that Stiles and I share, we absolutely destroyed a long-time nemesis. When I say “destroyed” I mean it. We won by 111 points. It was fantastic. I also stayed alive in both of my Guillotine leagues and went 2-0 in Scott Fish Bowl league (Vanderbilt Commodores). Speaking of the Dores, they took care of #10 LSU at home by two touchdowns. Sure, the scoreboard said one TD, but when your QB slides down at your two-yard line with 2:00 remaining, we can call that a TD as well. So, all my football itches were scratched.
As it turns out, this week’s Zone vs. Gap data is highlighting some excellent RB plays, which I’ll get to in a minute. We’ve now reached the point in the season where we’re pulling from 6 weeks of data. That is a magical number in terms of fantasy data because it’s both not too old to be out-of-date and current enough to pick up on adjustments. We found that this is the sweet spot in compiling data so I’m excited to share what we have.
I’m eager to see how this tool worked last week. So far, it’s become a good barometer for RB success. Sure, not every recommendation will hit due to a variety of reasons, mainly we don’t have a nuclear-powered Delorean or using a magic eight ball, but for the most part the tool is doing well. We’ll take a quick peak at last week’s highlights before getting to the important stuff – our Week 8 selections. But first…
As always, you can view the Defensive Zone vs. Gap splits HERE and the RB Zone vs. Gap splits HERE. I’ll add the former table to the bottom of this article. For RB-specific numbers, go to the tool. Remember, it’s FREE!
Also, if you want a short refresher (or tutorial, if you’re new to this tool) on the table, simply go back to my previous article HERE.
Don’t just stop at RBs! We have a whole suite of FREE tools as well as Rudy’s premium tools to provide everything you need, no matter your fantasy taste. Here are links to both:
Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool | DEF Zone vs. Gap Rushing | RB Zone vs. Gap Rushing |
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Review of Week 7 Analysis
Zone Matchups:
- Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
- Analysis: “The top Zone matchups this week is the Raiders, yes, the Raiders Offense, coming in with the 3rdhighest Zone rushing scheme versus the Chiefs with the lowest ranked Zone defense (that means they’re VERY GOOD against Gap rushing). What does this mean for Ashton Jeanty? Well, he’s still taking on a heavy workload (23 rushing attempts last week) and if he sticks to his ratios (65% Zone, 33% Gap), there should be some room to run.”
- Result: Game script was the primary reason for Jeanty’s lack of success. He only carried the ball 6 times and mustered a measly 21 yards. For numbers sake, he did follow MY game script by rushing behind Zone blocking for 5 of 6 rushing attempts. He (and the Raiders) just never had a chance.
- Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
- Minnesota Vikings (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
- Analysis: “A couple Zone matchups that don’t look so great:
- Chase Brown (42% Zone) has a decent Zone matchup versus the Steelers (28th ranked Zone defense) but between the O-line issues and the fact they primarily run Gap, it doesn’t feel like a good play.
- Jordan Mason (73% Zone) doesn’t have a great matchup against the Eagles (8th ranked Zone defense) front seven.
- Result:
- Would the real Chase Brown please stand up? The data suggested Bown had a decent Zone matchup but his carries were split evenly between Zone and Gap. At 108 yards and a TD, his fantasy owners have been aching for a game like this. For their sake, I hope he was in the starting lineup.
- Jordan Mason didn’t carry your team last week, but he probably didn’t sink it either. Against a stingy Eagles D-line, 15 carries for 57 yards and a TD is not great, but acceptable.
- Analysis: “A couple Zone matchups that don’t look so great:
Gap Matchups:
- Arizona Cardinals (vs. Green Bay Packers):
- Analysis: “Arizona (#2 Gap rushing offense) nabs the best Gap matchup against Green Bay (25th Gap rushing defense). Bam Knight (73% Gap) and Michael Carter (68% Gap) lead the way for the Cardinals, but this looks like a true timeshare. It doesn’t pass the smell test to me, I’m going to proceed with caution here despite the data suggesting otherwise.”
- Result: The ole gut served me well on this one. Bam Knight (71% Gap) led the backfield with 14 carries and 57 yards. Michael Carter’s 7 carries for 11 yards is hardly worth mentioning.
- New York Jets (vs. Carolina Panthers):
- Analysis: “The lowly Jets (sorry, J-E-T-S) and their 30th Gap rushing offense draws a Panthers (#16 Gap rushing defense) team that comes off a game where they limited the Cowboys to a total of 31 rushing yards. That doesn’t bode well for Breece Hall (23% Gap).”
- Result: And it didn’t…Hall ran for only 38 yards on 11 carries. There’s not much going right for the Jets these days, so nobody should be surprised by this.
So yet again, not a perfect prediction week by any means but the tool was useful in predicting the rushing schemes, just fell short in game script. Where’s Biff Tannen and that damn Sports Almanac?
Week 8 Matchups
Zone Matchups
There are a bunch of real nice Zone matchups again this week. Let’s take a look:
- The widest gap between Zone Offense and Zone Defense is KC (#3 Zone Offense) vs. the Commanders (#25 Zone Defense). That bodes well for Pacheco (80% Zone), Hunt (62% Zone – if he plays), and Smith (86% Zone).
- With 6 teams on bye, you won’t have the luxury of passing on Breece Hall. The data suggests you won’t be punished because he’s wearing a Jets uniform. The Jets (#9 Zone Offense) matches up against the Bengals (#26 Defense). Good luck!
- If you’re off the Ravens RB bandwagon, it’s time to get back on. Derrick Henry (59% Zone) is coming off a 122-yard game and a bye week. Oh, and many of the devastating injuries that plagued the Ravens are healing. He matches up with the #27 Chicago Zone Defense, so expect Henry numbers we’ve come to expect.
- Other Zone matchups I like:
- Bijan Robinson (71% Zone) versus the Dolphins (#15 Zone Defense). He’s matchup proof now, but still…
- Alvin Kamara (57% Zone) versus the Bucs (#18 Zone Defense). These two teams have a history of great games and Kendre Miller won’t be around to steal carries from Kamara.
- A couple Zone matchups that don’t look so great:
- The data suggests Jacory Croskey-Merritt (30% Zone) has a top 10 Zone matchup versus the Chiefs (#32 Zone Defense) but since he runs behind that blocking scheme so infrequently (70% Gap), we’ll likely see him stuffed more often by the #1 Gap Defense.
- Atlanta has a top 3 Zone Defense so that may limit De’Von Achane’s production (61% Zone).
Gap Matchups
- The best Gap matchup is the Texans backfield of Chubb (56% Gap) and Marks (48% Gap) versus the #32 San Francisco Gap Defense. Chubb is still listed at the top of the depth chart, but Woody has been getting the lion’s share of snaps lately. Neither are blowing our socks off on the ground, but I also note Woody is more productive in the passing game. Since we’re shorthanded this week, you can make an argument to start both (I am) but I prefer Woody, all things equal.
- Next up is Jonathan Tayor (55% Gap) versus the Titans (#27 Gap Defense). I know, “you had me at Taylor…” right?
- The rollercoaster that is Rhamondre Stevenson appears to continue on the same track. He has two 16+ fantasy point games in the last three, but sandwiched in there is a dismal 1.8 fantasy point game at New Orleans. The primarily Gap rusher (57% Gap) draws a top Gap Defense in Cleveland this weekend. Sorry!
- Last one…Cam Skattebo is a fun player to own in fantasy. He draws a favorable Gap matchup against the Eagles, but the data shows he’s Gap rushing just 35% of the time. I’m not shying away here, but I think we need to be realistic in our expectations for ground production. Another multi-TD game versus the Eagles would be nice, but I’m not making that bet. I’ll take one!
That’s All Folks
Do you take advantage of all our free tools? If you don’t, why not? All of the RazzballNFL staff is here to help so get on the ball. Be sure to read our daily articles and especially join us on gameday morning for the Razzball Sunday Start/Sit show. We had another great turnout last Sunday with excellent (i.e., tough) lineup questions to talk through. Keep bringing it!
As always, the show airs LIVE on the Razzball YouTube channel this Sunday from 11:00 am EDT (8:00 PDT) right up right up to gametime. Sky – @SkyGuasco, Matt – @Stiles08, Dave – @Crewser128, Jeff – @Jefferson__21 and I will be there to answer all your fantasy football questions. Don’t miss it.
As always, look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret. I’m also on BlueSky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends.
| Download Table as CSV | |||
| Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output | |||
| # | Team | Def_Designed Rush Yds/Gm | Def Zone Yds/Gm | Def Gap Yds/Gm | Def Zone% | Def Gap% | Def Undesigned Scr Yds/Gm | Next Opponent | Off Rush Yds/Gm | Off Zone% | Off Gap% | Off Scr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARZ | 103 | 57.8 | 37.6 | 54% | 36% | 0 | LA | 118 | 43% | 52% | 3% | |
| ATL | 107 | 30.4 | 72.5 | 38% | 57% | 0 | SEA | 117 | 58% | 37% | 1% | |
| BLT | 77 | 34.1 | 39.1 | 47% | 48% | 0 | PIT | 86 | 62% | 34% | 1% | |
| BUF | 111 | 56.0 | 45.1 | 53% | 38% | 0 | CIN | 115 | 49% | 41% | 1% | |
| CAR | 142 | 85.3 | 51.2 | 61% | 36% | 0 | BYE | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| CHI | 101 | 58.6 | 35.3 | 63% | 31% | 0 | GB | 98 | 55% | 43% | 0% | |
| CIN | 139 | 77.3 | 45.7 | 59% | 33% | 0 | BUF | 137 | 51% | 44% | 1% | |
| CLV | 94 | 46.3 | 34.5 | 51% | 35% | 0 | TEN | 56 | 41% | 42% | 2% | |
| DAL | 81 | 25.0 | 47.3 | 36% | 50% | 0 | DET | 141 | 57% | 40% | 1% | |
| DEN | 78 | 32.5 | 37.2 | 43% | 46% | 0 | LV | 39 | 55% | 30% | 2% | |
| DET | 92 | 48.8 | 34.4 | 52% | 40% | 0 | DAL | 107 | 58% | 31% | 6% | |
| GB | 107 | 58.0 | 44.3 | 55% | 41% | 0 | CHI | 137 | 60% | 34% | 4% | |
| HST | 67 | 31.6 | 29.3 | 43% | 43% | 0 | KC | 90 | 65% | 24% | 4% | |
| IND | 87 | 50.1 | 28.0 | 54% | 32% | 0 | JAX | 101 | 50% | 38% | 3% | |
| JAX | 60 | 21.5 | 33.7 | 36% | 55% | 0 | IND | 119 | 41% | 50% | 3% | |
| KC | 70 | 36.0 | 28.8 | 54% | 38% | 0 | HST | 92 | 32% | 56% | 3% | |
| LV | 118 | 61.3 | 43.4 | 52% | 37% | 0 | DEN | 93 | 32% | 58% | 1% | |
| LA | 85 | 51.4 | 29.1 | 61% | 33% | 0 | ARZ | 72 | 26% | 68% | 3% | |
| LAC | 87 | 44.3 | 34.1 | 55% | 37% | 0 | PHI | 98 | 49% | 41% | 1% | |
| MIA | 84 | 45.7 | 31.6 | 57% | 36% | 0 | NYJ | 93 | 58% | 34% | 5% | |
| MIN | 112 | 63.1 | 41.9 | 58% | 37% | 0 | WAS | 90 | 40% | 50% | 8% | |
| NE | 75 | 45.2 | 26.6 | 57% | 38% | 0 | BYE | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| NO | 137 | 73.2 | 54.4 | 53% | 42% | 0 | TB | 89 | 44% | 51% | 0% | |
| NYG | 159 | 68.2 | 73.5 | 45% | 46% | 0 | BYE | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| NYJ | 110 | 59.0 | 40.9 | 51% | 41% | 0 | MIA | 137 | 49% | 44% | 2% | |
| PHI | 105 | 69.0 | 32.5 | 58% | 37% | 0 | LAC | 93 | 43% | 40% | 6% | |
| PIT | 103 | 55.3 | 40.7 | 53% | 38% | 0 | BLT | 114 | 61% | 30% | 2% | |
| SEA | 71 | 28.7 | 37.3 | 43% | 51% | 0 | ATL | 105 | 76% | 18% | 2% | |
| SF | 91 | 36.9 | 39.8 | 37% | 49% | 0 | BYE | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| TB | 91 | 41.2 | 45.7 | 44% | 48% | 0 | NO | 53 | 67% | 24% | 6% | |
| TEN | 95 | 42.6 | 35.4 | 42% | 42% | 0 | CLV | 74 | 45% | 48% | 3% | |
| WAS | 129 | 58.0 | 60.2 | 44% | 48% | 0 | MIN | 81 | 49% | 45% | 1% | |
| NFL | 99 | 49.8 | 41.0 | 50% | 41% | 0 | NFL | 98 | 51% | 41% | 3% |
