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We are now moving onto the middle of the first round. I have gone back and forth on this area of the draft.  I can’t say I love it, but let’s see what we are in store for.  Unlike the top 4 picks there is more variety here.  You can check out drafting from 1-4 here. I am going to focus on non-ppr because if I tried to do both here the variations would confuse you and me both.  We’ll once again use Fantasy Football Calculator to guide us.

ADP for picks 5-8 looks like AJ, Gore, Turner and Moss.  My rankings have it Gore, Turner, AJ, and SJax.  Unlike the top 4 I would alter these rankings if my gut told me to, but for the most part I feel good with where they are.  What I want to do is try to lead us down 2 paths here without getting lost along the way and Donner partying the whole lot of us.  One path will be the RB path and the other, AJ way, but we’ll probably run into each other quick like.

RB: So, we’ve taken Gore/Turner/SJax and we have picks 17-20 and the usual suspects of Mendy, White, Marshall, Fitz, Greene, Deangelo, Manning, Jennings or Charles In Charge.  This is a nice group to be choosing from.  I am going to eliminate Mendy because I don’t think he will fall into this group consistently.  The rest I feel like we have a good shot at.  We have our running back.  Maybe not the best running back in the league, but one who is an every down back with consistency when healthy.  Do we want another back because we are a little worried with the first one we picked, a top QB or an elite receiver?  I am back in the seat where I will miss out on my man JC, but I like Fitz and White a lot here.  I have to trust that my back will anchor my team while my receiver will do the same on the other side of the boat (can you tell I’ve never sailed?).   So I’m going with Larry Fitzgerald here.

AJ: In this scenario we’ve gone with Andre Johnson.  We now have the best receiver in the league and since this isn’t PPR I want to get a running back.  Is this wrong headed? Should I add another elite receiver?  Maybe.  And if I had 3 receiver spots and a flex I would think harder on it, but I’m going running back because I think they are keen.  Once again I’m going to leave Mendenhall out of this equation and choose between JC, Greene, and DeAngelo.  And I’m going JC Superstar or Jamaal Charles for you non believers.  He has had a far superior preseason to Tom Jones and I see no reason to not want him on your team.

Now that both our teams have a WR and a RB we are going to reunite and sing that Coke song.  For our third round pick we have 29-32 and ADP gives us a the group of Brady, Benson, Welker, Boldin, and P.T.  Between here and the next pick we have Romo, McCoy, The Steve Smiths, Schaub, Beanie, Forte, and Clark.  I could actually see going with Brady or Romo here, but I just can’t make myself do it.  I’m looking hard at Beanie and Benson and I’m wanting a little stability, so I’m going with Cedric Benson.  He has been running hard in preseason and I don’t see why he can’t once again get his 100 yard games, but add a few more TDs than last year.

In the 4th round we have picks 41-44.  That has us looking at Best, Crabtree, Gates, and Stewart.  This one is a little easier for me.  I am firmly entrenched in the Jahvid Best camp.  He has won me over with all the possible post titles with Best in them. This puts me with quite a few young unproven backs, especially on my AJ team.  Try to mix it up.  JC, Benson, and Best are a nice combo of high upside with a shot of stability.  The non AJ team has a little more stability and I could see maybe grabbing Beanie instead of Benson back in the third, but to keep us on track I’ll stick with Benson for both.

The 5th round has us looking at picks 53-56 and such stars as Nicks, VD, MSW, Foster, Witten, Felix Jones, and Hines Ward.  This is where you start regretting not having grabbed another top receiver, at least with the AJ team.  AJ/Fitz/Benson/Best would be looking pretty good right now, but when I look at that I see a PPR team. In non-ppr I want 3 good running backs.  But it is something to think about.  I also had to take a hard look at Foster, but it’s just too early for me to draft a backup. So we really need a #2 receiver in this round.  The upside of the later receivers is nothing compared to the later RBs you can stash away.  This puts me back into the Hakeem Nicks camp.  He isn’t a lock, but his ceiling is higher than Ward or MSW.

Before we get into the 6th round we need to take a look at our two teams —

AJ/Charles/Benson/Best/Nicks   or    SJaTurGore/Fitz/Benson/Best/Nicks

I’m happy as a bee in a rotten pear with both.  Picks 65-68 are here, and I say, bring it on!  Floyd, Bradshaw, Barber, R. Bush, Driver, and Jacobs are here for the taking in round 6, but wait, what QBs are gone? Ugh, all of them except our man Jay Cutler. In our last draft we got Jay in the 7th round, but our draft position has us needing to reach to get him in the 6th or risk missing him.   So, do we jump into our Delorean and draft a QB earlier? I say no.  To get someone I want, I have to head back to the third round.  I rather reach for Jay Cutler in the 6th and see the dominoes fall.

Now onto round 7 with picks  77-80.  We need a TE, backup RBs and WRs. Wallace, Harrison, Ricky Williams, M. Bush, Lord Favre, Daniels, and Dez Bryant are available.  I want a RB and Bush and Williams are on my radar.  But I also like Wallace’s upside.  Being the RB guy I am I’m going to have to choose between Ricky and Bush.  I like Ricky’s production, but I do worry about Ronnie staying healthy even though he is a walking injury time bomb.  I feel like Michael Bush has the starting job fairly wrapped up and also has decent upside, so I’m going with him. (Note: Just read that Bush broke his thumb.  I’m leaving him in this slot until we hear more, but would move to Ricky Williams if Bush misses games.)

Round 8 has picks 89-92 and names like Holmes, Ryan, Meachem, Aroma, Tom Jones, and LDT.  I’m not overly crazy about my choices and Robert Meachem sticks out like he did last time around in this area.  He has a shot at even taking over Colston this year and even though it’s not a great shot, it’s one I don’t mind in the 8th round.

Round 9 is a predictable one for me, but we’ll go through the motions. Picks 101-104 give us Palmer, Mason, Slaton, Miller, Hardesty, and F. Jackson.  I love Mason’s value here, and the upside of FJax, but there was never a real question.  I waited on TE just for this moment!  Zach Miller for me please.

With the 10th pick in our draft we need to choose between picks 113-116 and some names like Evans, Hester, Big Ben, McFadden, Maroney, and Sproles.  I have been fairly high on Hester, but the value has to be with Big Ben here.  Cutler is riskier than your elite QBs and I think Ben Roethlisberger has great value here as a solid back up.

Picks 125-128 constitute our 11th round. C. Taylor, Stafford, D. Thomas, McGahee, J. Jones, Berrian, and McCluster land in front of us and we aren’t all that happy about it.  I am a big Jones fan, and think he has breakout potential.  Berrian is moving up because of Rice’s injury and finished the season strong last year.  Taylor and McGahee are both strong backups and I grabbed McGahee in our 1-4 draft, but I like Jacoby Jones‘ skill and TD potential a lot.

The 12th round has picks 137-140 and players L. Washington, G. Tate, Cotchery, Young, Roy Williams, Burleson, and Scott. I am really looking for upside here, but also at least some opportunity to play.  My choice for this round comes down to Burleson and Washington.  If the cards fall in place for either they could make some noise, but they are both extreme gambles.  I’m going to give my man Leon Washington a shot.

Lucky round 13 has picks 149-152 with a few targets being Fred Taylor, Lynch, Naanee, Walter, Buckhalter, D. Thomas, Murphy, Choice, Robinson, M. Thomas and Late Doucet.  I like Lynch, Naanee, both Thomas’ and Choice.  I feel good about most of these guys, but Legedu Naanee and Tashard Choice are the two I am most interested in.  And I love me some late round RBs.  The choice is, well, you know.

Round 14 has 161-164 with some sleepy sleepers like Tony Scheffler, Javon Ringer, Rashard Jennings, Harry Douglas, Jordan Shipley, Danny Amendola, Kareem Huggins, Aaron Hernandez, and Stephen Williams.  As long as Kareem Huggins continues to be available this late I’m taking a flier on him.  The worst that could happen is I drop him for someone else on the above list.

Rounds 15/16: We are getting closer to the season and I figure I’ll take the lazy way out and grab my defense, then my kicker so I don’t forget to pick either up before kickoff week 1.  Let’s say I picked Cincinnati Bengals and Rob Bironas.

1. SJaTurGore/Andre Johnson

2. Larry Fitzgerald/Jamaal Charles

3. Cedric Benson

4. Jahvid Best

5. Hakeem Nicks

6. Jay Cutler

7. M. Bush or Ricky Williams

8. Robert Meachem

9. Zach Miller

10. Ben Roethlisberger

11. Jacoby Jones

12. Leon Washington

13. Tashard Choice

14. Kareem Huggins

15. Cincinnati Bengals

16. Rob Bironas

From Around The Web

  1. Dominic says:
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    Just drafted a team out of the 6 spot today, standard Yahoo! scoring:

    1. (6) Frank Gore RB
    2. (15) Calvin Johnson WR
    3. (26) Jahvid Best RB
    4. (35) Matt Schaub QB
    5. (46) Beanie Wells RB
    6. (55) Michael Crabtree WR
    7. (66) Jeremy Maclin WR
    8. (75) Brent Celek TE
    9. (86) C.J. Spiller RB
    10. (95) Eli Manning QB
    11. (106) Sidney Rice WR
    12. (115) Devin Hester WR
    13. (126) Mike Williams WR
    14. (135) Cincinnati DEF
    15. (146) Jay Feely K

    what do you think?

  2. zack neugut says:
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    Good article although a lot of time past round 5 or 6 i just pick players who fall through the cracks of my league since in every league there is always some guy who falls way too far.

    And as for your draft, I personally think benson is way too risky for a third rounder and dont think hell hit gold twice. im thinking i prefer going 2 wr early if i get andre; id prefer andre fitzgerald and romo to any of those combos and then to get best felix jones ahmad bradshaw and michael bush. between the 4 im sure 2 will pan out and ill risk my fantasy season on that andre fitz (or white if hes gone) and romo will have good seasons. then i like almost all those bench players if they fall and zach miller as well.

    and if andre is gone at 5 and i get rb, i get a rb round one and then switch best to crabtree. i think wr’s are really undervalued in the era of 2 backs especially since every year half the rb’s get injured and theres always some guy on waivers who turns out sick at rb

  3. Matt B says:
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    Any examples or thoughts as what to do at 11 & 14 in a 12-team non-ppr? 6-td for QB, 2wr, 2rb, no flex. So I’m wondering if I should spend a pick on a top tier QB if they fall. In this format I think I’ve got to pick up a top 10 RB but I’m less sold one going WR here unless there is a big-time fall.

  4. ASAOK says:
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    I have an auction draft tomorrow and I know how much the kids in my league will spend for top RBs. With $300 budget would u take Rice at around $90, S-Jax or Turner around $80 or Mendenhall around $60? just curious if those are indeed their values.

  5. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Dominic: Really like this team. Best went a little early, but if it’s PPR I love his upside. If not, it’s probably too early.

    @Matt B: I would probably go WR/RB. I think going RB/RB could be a little risky and whatever WR you get should be steady. If you are looking to go with a top QB I would wait until the 3/4 for a Brady/Schaub/Romo type.

  6. Senor D says:
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    Doc – Looking at the 2010 Tiers. When was that last updated? And should we expect any updates coming?

    thanks, great stuff as always

  7. genghis chone says:
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    Could you talk a little about what your strategy would be for a 2 QB 10-team PPR league? I’m drafting 6th, and I’m considering taking Brees or AJ, if either is available at that point. If I take Brees, would it be appropriate to take Manning, Brady, Rodgers or Romo if they’re still out there at 15? They’re all quite a bit better than the 20th best quarterback (should be Matt Stafford or Carson Palmer or something), to a much greater extent than Roddy White or Rashard Mendenhall is better than the 20th RB or WR (Dwayne Bowe or Beanie Wells).

  8. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Senor D: The date should be on the left. Not too long ago. I’ve been updating them every other day and will probably continue until the season.

    @genghis chone: Yes, in 2 QB leagues making sure you get 2 top 12 QBs is a good idea. I could see going QB/QB. But I wouldn’t mind getting one top QB with a Cutler/Flacco type either so you can get a good WR/RB.

  9. cleaver596 says:
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    hey doc, I wanted to see if you want to try and get a mock draft going for Tuesday night. around 10 or so would work for me, I have my money league auction earlier in the night, so I’ll be in primetime draft mode. But I think it would fun to get a mock going with you and some of us out here in Razzball land. I don’t know how many of the commenter leagues have had their drafts yet, but ours isn’t til next Sunday, so this would be a good primer before the draft.

  10. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @cleaver596: Sure. If you set it up I’m in.

  11. The Den says:
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    Doc my lineup is:

    Qb: Romo
    RB: Gore
    Rb: Matthews
    flex: Forsett
    Wr: Johnson
    Wr: Mason
    Te: Celek

    Bn: Donald Brown, Slaton, Jacoby Jones, Johnny Knox

    I’ve been offered Kevin Kolb and Jonathan Stewart for Romo and Forsett. Do I pull the trigger?

  12. Roger Lodge says:
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    Hi Doc,

    I just drafted a team in a 12-team standard scoring league. I’m a little worried about the Ronnie Brown pick and my QB situation. Otherwise I’m happy. Can you give me your thoughts?

    2 Adrian Peterson, Min RB
    23 Calvin Johnson, Det WR
    26 Greg Jennings, GB WR
    47 Ronnie Brown, Mia RB
    50 Vernon Davis, SF TE
    71 Dwayne Bowe, KC WR
    74 Jahvid Best, Det RB
    95 Matt Ryan, Atl QB
    98 Malcom Floyd, SD WR
    119 Devin Aromashodu, Chi WR
    122 Eagles D/ST, Phi D/ST
    143 Marshawn Lynch, Buf RB
    146 Heath Miller, Pit TE
    167 David Akers, Phi K
    170 Mark Sanchez, NYJ QB

    Thanks

  13. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @The Den: I’d like that Stew over Forsett upgrade about now, but Kolb, though I think he’ll do well, hasn’t quite been in synch this preseason. I’d stay.

    @Roger Lodge: Yeah, Brown has a lot of upside, but I do worry about him as my #2. But I do like Best/AP so it’s not a total RB disaster by any means. The QB situation is a little more worrisome. Ryan is inching down my draft boards and Sanchez is just not going to cut it as a backup. I’d take a look at some teams backup QBs and see if you can get any value there. Maybe Stafford.

  14. sparts says:
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    Hey doc,
    I just had my draft (standard 12 team) and the league went a little crazy on QBs. all the top QBs were drafted before my pick in the 3rd round (Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Romo, Schaub, Brady, Rivers, even Farve.) As such I really had to pick up some QBs I am not very sure of for the season. I like the rest of my draft, but think I might need to trade for a QB. Your thoughts on that, or my team in general. Thanks.

    1. (8) Michael Turner RB
    2. (17) Calvin Johnson WR
    3. (32) Steve Smith WR
    4. (41) Jamaal Charles RB
    5. (56) Ahmad Bradshaw RB
    6. (65) Jay Cutler QB
    7. (80) Kellen Winslow TE
    8. (89) Carnell Williams RB
    9. (104) Jeremy Maclin WR
    10. (113) Matt Ryan QB
    11. (128) Vincent Jackson WR
    12. (137) Mike Williams WR
    13. (152) Cincinnati DEF
    14. (161) Brian Westbrook RB
    15. (176) Josh Scobee K

  15. cleaver596 says:
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    Doc,
    I created a league with a draft on this tuesday at 10pm central time. I figure this is the best way to get the time we want and the people we want with the least amount of hassle. I can just delete the league after the draft then. Anyone interested in doing a mock draft let me know. my email is vancleave596(at)yahoo.com. 12 teams with the same size rosters are our Razzball leagues.

  16. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @cleaver596: I’m in.

    @sparts: I’d be happy with Cutler and Ryan. Should work together well.

    Winslow’s knee is worrisome. i would look at finding him a backup.

    Looks good overall.

  17. cleaver596 says:
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    doc(at)razzball.com? that the correct email?

  18. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @cleaver596: sent you an email

  19. EMC Squared says:
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    Doc,

    Just finished my draft using a lot of your strategy. Picked 5th in a 10 team league, standard scoring. Your thoughts?

    1. Ray Rice RB
    2. Larry Fitzgerald WR
    3. Reggie Wayne WR
    4. Beanie Wells RB
    5. Vernon Davis TE
    6. Jahvid Best RB
    7. Jay Cutler QB
    8. Hakeem Nicks WR
    9. Felix Jones RB
    10. Dwayne Bowe WR
    11. Robert Meachem WR
    12. Big Ben QB
    13. Clinton Portis RB
    14. New York Def/ST
    15. Jacoby Jones WR
    16. Matt Prater K

  20. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @EMC Squared: Well, hard not to like it if you used my strategy! But really I think you did well. Nicks and Bowe that late are really nice. If Portis can give you a couple decent games i try to flip him for another RB, but the 13th round is good value for him. Ben is a solid backup for Jay. All around good stuff.

  21. Commish Cauda says:
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    I’m in the 2nd round of a 10-team, NON-PPR keeper on-line (slow) draft, (6pt TD’s for all, 0.1pt/yard rec., 5 pt. bonus at 100 yards rec), and I need a WR.

    First four rounds are not keeper eligible for next year, so it’s about 2010 only. Here’s the best of who is left/hasn’t been kept:

    Larry Fitzgerald
    DeSean Jackson
    Anquan Boldin

    Which one?

  22. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Commish Cauda: DJax is close in that scoring, but I’d go Fitz.

  23. Howie Met Your Mother says:
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    Ok guys, I’m going to need some help. Draft order for my 10 team league just announced and I’m picking #2! $100 buy in, 2RB, 3WR, 1FLX, 1TE, DEF, K.

    There is a chance the #1 pick is a QB (even though its only 4 points for a TD).

    So CJ and AP are the clear #1 and #2?

  24. Chris says:
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    @Doc:

    I only saw your strategy after I finished drafting, but what are your thoughts on this team?

    6. Gore
    15. Mendenhall
    26. Colston
    35. Crabtree
    46. Bowe
    55. Finley
    66. Foster
    75. Kolb
    86. Ryan
    95. Mason
    106. Tomlinson
    115. Vikings D
    126. Cotchery
    135. Carlson
    146. Broncos D
    155. Prater

    10 team, PPR, start 3 WR, 6 pt passing TDs.

  25. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Chris: I really like your RBs. I’d like a little better WRs for a 10 teamer. I don’t think you need Denver. I’d look for an upside WR/RB instead.

  26. Chris says:
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    Doc,

    Pick#4 in standard scoring league. I’ve done a bunch of mocks that will never probably play out in the live draft. I like rice at #4, but if Rice goes #3 and I am nervous about MJD, what about AJ at #4. I love QB at Rd #7 – #9. Our league is 1QB,2RB,3WR,1flex. What about WR/WR/WR and then draft RB’s for next 3 – 5 rounds? Is that a destiny for missing the playoffs?

  27. gregsauce says:
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    If you get AJ in round one and Mendenhall and Charles are both available in round two, who are you taking?

  28. Chris says:
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    I like the idea of WR/WR/WR. WR1 is AJ at #4. WR2 could be wide range of people, maybe Marshall or Roddy White at #17. WR3 could be Jennings at pick#24.

    You let go the top RB’s and top QB, but there are serviceable QB’s later. I think you wait to round 9/10 for two back to back QB picks.

    Since the way they did flex in our league was to take TE out and replace with Flex, then all things being equal I would prefer a RB or WR that could serve both as flex and a backup vs a TE. With that said, I potentially skip TE completely until much later in the draft, if at all.

    As for RB’s, I target upside from rd #4 onward. Possibly take a shot with Ronnie Brown, Best, and LT.

    It may not win the championship, but it sure will be fun. I think I have talked myself into it.

  29. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Chris: @Chris: In standard I would want to grab at least one RB you think can be a top 10 back.

    I can see grabbing AJ there, but I am more inclined to go with Gore. MJD is somewhat worrisome.

    @gregsauce: Mendy

    @Chris: Sounds like a plan! Good luck!

  30. hey Doc, great great site.

    I’m in a draft on Sunday. 8 teams. Non PPR. Keeper League. Snake draft.

    20 man roster. 2 qb’s, 2 rb, 3 wr and a bench

    passing is 1 pt per 10 yards so the qbs have a value match with the rb’s.

    For example on a Brees and Rogers would be in the top 5 with A.P,CJ and Drew.

    I have the 6th pick.

    how would you advise to pick? QB QB, RB WR? or QB RB RB WR? etc

    thanks

    The way the scoring is set up

  31. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Uncle MOwglie: Appreciate it! Starting 2 QBS in that scoring system I’m going QB/QB. Afterward I would go with value with an emphasis on bench RBs.

  32. I appreciate your insights and the detailed reasoning behind them.

    I would lose too much sleep at night if I took Fitzgerald as my top WR (if you don’t get Johnson in R1) . I was uncomfortable with his role this year even after the announcement of Warner’s retirement, but the news from Cardinal camp has gotten steadily worse. Leinhart was demoted, and he could even be dealt or released prior to the season opener–leaving them with nothing but doubts and questions at QB.

    He is a fantastic receiver, but I see him blocking and decoying a lot more this year on a team that wants/needs to run the ball–I think they will have trouble getting him the football.

    JC has great upside, but is still a dice throw that high. He will most likely be sharing the ball and watching Jones start–and if he fumbles, he will quickly be in coach’s doghouse again.

    I was somehow fortunate enought to land RB Grant in the 4th round of my draft, but Best and Benson at the level you found them, I think are great picks.

    Getting Big Ben late may be a steal as well. I can see him being a fantasy hero at the end of the season–as he has much to prove and the Steelers will likely be fighting for a playoff spot then.

  33. Uncle MOwglie says:
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    thanks Doc,

    appreciate it..so im pickin 2 qbs..now being a keeper league.. would you pick a Schaub before a Manning or Brady..with the big boys gettin a lil older now n’ Schaub sorta movin’ in the top tier position?

  34. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Uncle MOwglie: Tough call. Are there any limits or penalties on how long you can keep a player? I’m still grabbing Manning. Look at Favre. He’s 100 years old.

  35. No there’s no limits nor penalties. I can draft someone n’ ride ‘em out for years n’ years.

    My top 4 qb in order looks like this:

    Brees
    Rodgers
    Schaub
    Manning/Brady

    pretty good chance i’ll get a shot to grab 2 of these guys

  36. UNcle MOwglie says:
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    thanks again Doc.

    you def helped me with all ur articles n advice.

    again there was 8 teams. here’s how mine looked.

    qb shuab
    qb brady
    rb Jackson
    rb Deangelo Williams
    wr D.Jackson
    wr wes Walker
    wr dezzy bryant
    te Gonzalez

    really empazized on my runnin bench like u said i should too

    bench
    qb.Bradford
    rb L.McCoy
    rb A.Foster
    rb reggie bush ( yah i know..but im a usc fan)
    wr H.Ward
    J. Gaffney :)
    k.Britt
    TE Z.Miller

    lemme know how we did,

    thanks

  37. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @UNcle MOwglie: Looks good. The QBs should keep you in most games. Britt is iffy in an 8 teamer. Is Mike Williams (SEA) available? McCoy and Foster are nice bench warmers!

  38. UNcle MOwglie says:
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    Mike Williams is available. So is Houshmandzadeh..i’m thinking of jumpin’ on him n’ dropping Britt..

Comments are closed.