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Follow me, if you will, into the minds of the casual DraftKings player.  Casual player sees Kyle Orton and how badly he played on Thursday Night Football.  Casual player is disgusted by this.  Casual player is even more disgusted by Kyle’s neck beard.  Casual player is never playing Orton in any fantasy situation, ever.  Well, sorry casuals but that’s how you lose: by saying never.  That’s the great thing about this here game we play.  It’s daily, not seasonal.  You don’t have to own Kyle the entire year, you just have to own him for the right matchup and when the price is right, you’re even better off.  Now I’m gonna discuss a bit of strategy.  It’s a general way of processing or viewing your salaries over there on the DK.  Take those salaries and divide them by 1,000.  That should give you some kind of decimal point.  For Kyle this week because he’s $5,400, that number would be 5.6.  Now take that decimal number and multiply it by 5.  For Orton, that gives you (5.6*5=) 28.  Casual players don’t do this which is why casual players let a start at home against an opponent who’ve given up the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs on the year slide by.  To date, the Jets have given up 25 passing touchdowns to only 3 INT.  Oh and the last time Orton faced them?  He collected 4 of those TDs and zero of those INT, finishing with 26.12 DK points.  Now I’m not making the promise he’ll do that again but here’s a little dirty DK secret.  Those top tier QBs?  Yeah, they’re priced about 9K most weeks.  So for example, Aaron Rodgers is 9,900 this week.  That’s nice.  So for him to really reach a good value for you in a tourney, you either need (9.9*5=) 49.5 points from him – his highest point output this year is 39.6 – or you need to find values around him at much lower price tags that will go off.  Trust me, I’ve been there and it’s hard to do.  It’s much simpler to aim for a lower priced QB with a good matchup most weeks.  It’s just too hard to find that blend and be that handicapped at the skill positions most weeks to warrant such a thing.  I know, I know, none of this says Orton’s any good but was Austin Davis when he threw for 375 against the Eagles?  Yeah, not so much.  If given the opportunity to pay down at QB, most weeks follow Nike’s mantra and just do it.  All this to say, if you can’t tell, I’m strictly calling Orton a GPP only play this week.  Heck, he could get pulled at halftime after the kiss of death vote of confidence on Monday.  But it’s hard to imagine that happening so I’ll be rolling with him plenty.  But enough about neck beards, let’s get on with this.  Here are my red hot takes for the week 12 DK slate…

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Drew Brees, QB: $8,200 – BUT YOU JUST SAID…I know, I know, don’t pay up at QB.  But only if you can, should you.  Obviously matchups and situations will always matter, you just have to find a way to make it all work.  Brees hasn’t played all that well this year and just lost Brandin Cooks for what looks like 4-6 weeks.  Have I sold him on you yet?  Well, Baltimore is still dealing with a severely limited secondary so even though they’re coming off a bye, I don’t think they can fix what ails them that quickly.  Oh and if you’d like some more fun with numbers, go read this little ditty about his Prime Time Stats.  Monday Night Football, my friends.  As if you needed a better reason to watch.  You won’t get 5x numbers with him but many might be down on him at just the wrong time for a contrarian play.  GPP or cash

Mark Sanchez, QB: $6,800 – Yeah, I faded him last week and he still produced a good fantasy line with 20 points.  My fade was more about ownership than it was expectation and if anyone watched the game, you know the end stats were a lot of junk time.  Butt fumble reared his ugly…uh, rear again.  It was a tough matchup.  Tennessee is not.  Don’t feel dirty for starting Sanchez.  GPP or cash

Josh McCown, QB: $6,600 – He’s gonna get hyped out of the building this week for so many things.  Revenge game?  Check.  Chicago’s pass defense being more shreddable than wheat?  Double check.  All that said, I’m not against starting him, but I’d make sure the rest of my lineup is fairly contrarian if I’m playing in a tourney.  Send in the McCown.  GPP or cash

Brian Hoyer, QB: $5,900 – Flash is back!  Yeah, this will be another stack that is probably played everywhere.  I’ll just mention Josh Gordon is $6,300 here.  He’s gonna be like 45% owned in tourneys at that price.  Oh, and Hoyer isn’t really a destroyer but Atlanta houses the Failcons so at least you have a good reason to ruin your lineup stack these two.  GPP only

Zach Mettenberger, QB: $5,300 – And you thought my Orton call was dumb.  Well, welcome to Dumb and Dumber to!  Yeah, I haven’t seen it.  Don’t spoil it for me but…were there fart jokes?  I’m kidding, of course.  Speaking of fart jokes, I just told you to start Zach.  I must be full of crap!  In the end, you’re hoping for what you say from Sanchez in Green Bay: sloppy start which leads to a team playing from behind and throwing all day.  Hey, it’s happened plenty of times against Philly so far this year and given how bad Tennessee is, there’s a chance it happens again.  Besides, dat selfie game so strongGPP only

DeMarco Murray, RB: $8,500 – If you’re paying up at RB, you should probably take the guy who gets to face a team that’s given up 498 rushing yards and 5 TDs on 82 carries (which is a 6 ypc average, BTW) over their last two games.  Frank Gore had almost 100 yards on them.  Yes, the Frank Gore who had a sub-4 YPC average before heading to New York.  Fun part about playing DeMarco Polo with the Giants is that he’s always easy to find: he’s in the end zone!  GPP or cash

Marshawn Lynch, RB: $6,700 – Ah, that’s better.  Yeah, I said I didn’t want to pay up for that $8,200 price tag last week.  He did go over 100 yards rushing but didn’t offer much else.  Great day in real life but your DK lineup would’ve sagged a bit at the price he went for.  I’m here to say that anyone can be run on.  Anyone.  It just requires the right situation.  Seattle at home rushing the ball is the right situation in my book, which is where Lynch has scored all nine of his rushing TDs on the season.  You’re hoping for a worn down defense from Seattle jumping on the Cardinals out of the gate.  For his price and for that reason, he’s getting the tourney only tag for me.  GPP only

Rashad Jennings, RB: $5,100 – A week after throwing 5 INTs, do you think your coach will try and force the ground game a bit more?  Yeah, me too, especially when you consider the Cowboys give up the 6th most yards per carry on the year.  If Rashad can get close to his 22 touches from last week, I think you get a big game at a mint price.  Run roughshod, Jennings.  GPP or cash

Trent Richardson, RB: $4,900 – I just threw up in my mouth a little.  Then I looked at his name up here and threw up a lot.  Ugly thing is, Ahmad Bradshaw has a fractured fibula and is done for the year.  T-Rich split carries and touches with Ahmad all year and lost his spot in the red zone in passing downs.  Now he’ll basically see all of the volume Bradshaw did plus his own except for breather back situations.  It’s his chance to prove everyone wrong.  But he’ll probably prove everyone right yet again.  GPP only

Isaiah Crowell, RB: $3,800 – This is just me reserving a spot to talk about the Browns backfield.  This spot could be Terrance West.  Heck, maybe they trade with Carolina so they can get Chris Ogbonnaya back.  It’s that fluid from week to week, y’all.  In the end, if it’s clear cut, the matchup is tasty but really, we should all just stay away from it (if we even can).  GPP only

T.Y. Hilton, WR: $7,600 – You hate when a guy goes missing on a nationally televised game.  I mean honestly, how does that happen?  Hilllltonnnnn…where arrrre youuuuu.  I think after having a back of a milk carton week for fantasy purposes, Luck revs Hilton back up.  T.Y. says TY, Andrew.  GPP or cash

A.J. Green, WR: $7,300 – Based on price and matchup, A.J. is probably my favorite ‘pay up’ for the week at WR.  I’m all about that Green.  GPP or cash

Sammy Watkins, WR: $5,600 – Here’s the guy you probably wanna pair with Orton if you like they way I’m thinking.  But even if you don’t, Watkins should finally be healthy and has a matchup that he torched for 3/157/1 his last time out.  As Lil Jon would say: ‘WAT(kins)?  YEE-AHHH!’ GPP or cash

Jordan Matthews, WR: $5,500 – Ah, the price finally came up.  But my love for you is still strong, Jordan.  GPP or cash

John Brown, WR: $4,600 – Ain’t nobody playing a WR in Seattle.  NO ONE YOU HEAR ME.  Well, except me.  Yes, it’s an intimidating place to play and yes part deux, I’d fire up their defense against Stanton this week.  But a lot of small and fast wide outs have found success up in Seattle so far this year.  Odell Beckham had a good game there going 7 for 108 and we know that TY Hilton had his way in 2013 when the defense was better.  In the end, if you’re looking for a contrarian play that could net you 100 and a TD, well go with the kid with the boring name.  GPP only

Kenny Stills, WR: $4,200 – Yes, stacking Brees with Jimmy Graham is the smart route to go most weeks and I won’t deny it here either.  But in looking at the lost looks that Cooks was being given, I have to think that old man Colston isn’t going to see as much uptick – or give you as much upside – as Brandin’s replacement.  Be Stills my beating heart for you, Kenny.  GPP only

Justin Hunter, WR: $3,800 – I just hit myself for you, don’t worry.  I like it as much as you do but the reality is the Eagles give up plenty of fantasy points even when their defense scores a ton.  Case in point, the last time the Eagles brought a ‘gunslinger’ onto their home turf, they scored 23 DK fantasy points.  Meanwhile, they gave up 31 fantasy points to Austin Davis and 25.7 points to Brian Quick.  Not that you should but you could, theoretically, stack Mett and Hunter and the Eagles defense and hope for similar results.  Or you could admit yourself to the looney bin for ever having thought such a thing.  Yeah, I’ll be right back in a few months, you guys…GPP only

Allen Hurns, WR: $3,200 – Injury leads to opportunity leads to cash money.  Jacksonville has stayed committed to the run of late, which does limit the upside here but with an over/under of 50 and the likelihood that the Jags will be playing from behind, Allen in your flex if you’re financially tapped out makes a lot of sense.  Heck, maybe DK would be gracious enough to let you pay for him with gum.  GPP only

Rob Gronkowski, TE: $7,900 – No one will pay up for him or Graham after the respective weeks they had.  Ok, Gronk’s was better, there’s no doubt about that but it still wasn’t what people paid for.  When expectations aren’t met, people get angry.  Just ask my wife!  GPP or cash

Coby Fleener, TE: $5,200 – Allen should be out this week and he went for 7/144 last game.  Shouldn’t we be all over this like baby oil on Kim K’s backside in that Paper magazine?  The price is definitely nice and the situation is as well but you’ll surely see high ownership a week after the top two failed and a middling priced guy rose.  I’m fine with him in cash games as a block but I don’t see him replicating the numbers that have you giddy about him for week 12.  Cash only

Scott Chandler, TE: $3,000 – This is why I don’t blame you if you go Fleener.  It’s a sparse week in terms of good matchup vs expected upside vs price.  So many vs, where is the chorus?  Alright, alright, sing it with me: J-E-S-T, JEST JEST JEST!  They ain’t a stopper of no one.  Maybe Chandler remembers how to perform against someone besides the Patriots this week.  What, it could happen.  GPP only

Tony Moeaki, TE: $3,000 – Yeah, keep in tune with Seahawks news for this one.  Though he only got 23 snaps last week, it was a good sign that he outsnapped Luke Willson 23 to 17.  The ‘hawks tried to trade for a big TE when they were trying to get rid of Harvin but it never came to pass.  They may have found that man and if any of you know anything about me, it’s that I love that man.  LOVE HIM.  Yeah, you should probably just ignore this call altogether at this point.  GPP only

Philadelphia Eagles, DST, $3,400 – I really wanna pay up for them this week.  They average over one DST TD per game while playing at home in their 5 home games so far this year.  This is the kind of defense that can score you 30 points.  Going back to that math in the opening, 3.4 times 5 doesn’t equal 30 but with these kinds of teams, it could.  Take advantage.  GPP or cash

Indianapolis Colts, DST: $3,200 – Not the best home game after coming off a bye.  But then those Jags come to town and make everyone happy again.  It’s called ‘re-establishing yourself as the dominant team’.  It could be as big as trouncing a team at home after a loss or wiggling your butt in the couch to reformat the cushions to your tush’s liking.  Either way, there will be a showing of who’s the boss here.  GPP or cash

Denver Broncos, DST: $3,100 – Embarrassed and banged up on the road by the Rams isn’t the best way to come home.  Unless you like your team angry.  Very, very angry.  I like Tannehill.  I think he’s a decent QB overall but I don’t think this is a matchup that will make him look good by the end of the day.  Some turnovers are about to get served.  Delicious!  GPP or cash