Fantasy Football Advice

Here are my rankings for the Super Bowl peppered with some “remember me hits.”  Let’s get it, as they say, on!

Quarterbacks:

1. Peyton Manning: In these here playoffs the Saints have forced at least one quarterback into retirement and another possibly into hiding/retirement/24/7 news cycle.  They will be coming after Peyton Manning with the force of Zeus’ own thunder! But then he’ll sidestep and throw a touchdown.  We saw the Jets’ #1 defense get to Manning early in the AFC Championship game and then the Manning Machine finally got warmed up and chewed them up and spat them out while throwing for 377 yards and 3 TD’s.  That’s the most passing yards given up by the Jets all year.  And the Saints don’t have as good a pass defense as the Jets. In the Saints’ last 6 meaningful games (not including week 17 when they rested starters) they have given up 303.5 passing yards per game.  Greg Williams wants his players to put some “remember me hits” on Peyton early.  Rex Ryan probably had the same game plan.

2. Drew Brees: He is probably the best all around fantasy quarterback going against the best all around real quarterback.  The Colts are vulnerable against the pass with their young defensive backs and unless Freeney and Mathis can pressure Brees consistently, he will be able to move the ball through the air.  The Saints did try to balance the run with the pass in the championship game. They had 23 rushes to 31 passes even though they only averaged 3 yards a carry.  I believe they’ll try a similar ratio against the Colts, so Brees’ numbers could be dampened just a little.

Running Backs:

1. Joseph Addai: He ran strong against the Jets’ tough run defense totaling 81 yards on 16 carries.  The Colts won’t all of the sudden try to run the ball down the Saints throats, but Addai could see similar to better numbers against a poor rushing defense, and I see him adding a touchdown.  Addai has been a little dinged up and the 2 weeks of rest should help him quite a bit.

2. Pierre Thomas: He says his ribs aren’t bothering him and he did have a decent game against a good Vikings rush defense.  The Colts have had good game plans against elite running backs, but PT won’t be their main focus and could sneak in a couple big runs.

3. Reggie Bush: Bush is the ultimate boom or bust (sounds a little like his girlfriend).  I almost put him above PT because he is always a threat to take the ball all the way.  But in the biggest game in the whole wide world of sports I think Payton trusts Thomas with the ball more.  Bush does elevate his game and could go off, but I’m playing it safe with PT and his 15-20 touches.

4. Donald Brown: He was clearly backing up Addai last week so it looks like he’s passed Mike Hart as he should have.  Coming off his injury I’ve seen a couple very nice runs from him, but for the most part he’s not doing enough to take many looks away from Addai and I doubt things will change much in the Super Bowl.

5. Mike Bell/Lynell Hamilton: Both of these guys have about the same chance of vulturing a touchdown from Pierre Thomas.

Wide Receivers:

1. Reggie Wayne: Garcon and Collie benefited from Wayne getting Revis-ed last week, but Revis didn’t get invited to the Super Bowl.  The Saints did slow Sidney Rice, but he still had 4 receptions for 43 yards and a TD.  The Saints are going to have their hands full with Garcon, Collie and Clark, so giving Wayne extra attention might be tough.

2. Marques Colston: Against the Vikings Drew Brees completed passes to 8 different players and only had a total of 17 completions.  Not one receiver had a great game and that has really been the way it has gone all season.  Colston is the Saints best receiver so he gets the #2 nod.

3. Pierre Garcon: He showed he could be the #1 guy without any downgrade in production.  Reggie Wayne is still the man and unless the Saints spend a lot of resources on shutting him down we should see Garcon’s numbers dip from last week’s game.

4.Devery Henderson: He’s leading the Saints in receiving in the playoffs and has scored as many touchdowns in the playoffs as he did all season with two.  You can’t discount a player who is hot in the playoffs.  Of course he could be shut out, but trying to pick a Saints receiver is tough no matter what you do, might as well go with the hot hand.

5. Robert Meachem: He’s been hurting, but seems to be healthy now and he would probably be my pick to pull another Braylon Edwards on the Colts defense.  The only problem with that is the Saints aren’t a run first team like the Jets, so it will be tougher to beat the Colts deep.

6. Austin Collie: Collie should see the biggest drop off from the Revis game, but you cannot count him out for a touchdown.  Manning will throw to the open guy. So get open!

7. Lance Moore: Just another Saints wide receiver to divvy up the receptions.  What ever happened to a #1 and #2 receiver that got a predetermined number of catches?  That never happens? Hmm, maybe I was watching darts.

Tight Ends:

1. Dallas Clark: This is a bit of a no-brainer based on his competition, but the Saints have been tough against tight ends.  They’ve only given up one TD to a TE and the was the future Hall of Famer Fred Davis. Clark is too good to shut out.

2. Dave Thomas: If I were Sean Payton I would play Thomas over Shockey based on hair alone, but also because Shockey is hurting.  I really wouldn’t want either Saints’ tight end, but the founder of Wendys isn’t hurting.

3. Jeremy Shockey: He says he will risk an even worse injury than he already has to play in the Super Bowl.  Well, that’s very William Wallace of you Jeremy, but I think they’ll go with the healthier guy.

Kickers:

1. Garrett Hartley: The Colts can interpretive dance the cliche of “bend and don’t break” and it is a beautiful display that will go off-broadway after the Super Bowl.  Hartley will have some chances to kick.

2. Matt Stover: I see the Colts converting their drives into touchdowns more often than the Saints.

Defense/Special Teams:

1. New Orleans Saints: I like the Colts to win this game, but with Roby and Bush returning kicks and punts and the Saints loving the turnover they have a little more upside.

2. Indianapolis Colts: This should be a high scoring game.  The Colts might be the safer defense since I see them having more points than that other team.

Anthony Gonzalez: He had a little surgery the other day.  You know, they just scraped around inside his body to see what was up.  He’s been out since the beginning of time and you have held onto him thinking he would help you in the fantasy playoffs.  Well, the fantasy is over.  Drop him like a cheating significant other and pick up any other who is significant and doesn’t get hurt by a stiff, air conditioned breeze.

Anquan Boldin: He should play, but be sure to check out his status before committing to him.  I committed to a black taco the other day and my status quickly fell to OUT. You can’t not start Boldin, but his injury also makes Breaston a decent start if Quan reaggravates his ankle.

Donald Brown: It looks like he’ll play after practicing Wednesday and Thursday, but taking Friday off for napping and general merriment. He’s not a great play against a gradually stouter Houston run defense, but if you are hurting it looks like you can get him in there.

Calvin Johnson: Of course he’ll be a game time decision and since the Lions play in the great Northwest we won’t know in time for you to set your lineups.  And there is always a good chance he’ll be mauled by a bear or gored by an elk.  But all the reports look like he’ll go.  I think he will go.  I hope he goes.  I have a voodoo doll of Megatron (well, it’s just my old Megatron) and I’m soaking him in a little jacuzzi and then spraying him down with WD-40.

Marlin Jackson/Bob Sanders: The Colts’ defensive backfield is banged up, but these two guys have been banged up for a while.  Combined, they had started 6 games and had 9 tackles. It doesn’t help Indy, but it’s not a huge blow to them either. They’ve been good without them.

Devin Hester: He has been limited in practice with a gimpy ankle this week.  He should start, but this may boost Knox’s value up a little if Hester takes a bad step somewhere.  Hester has been playing well so you probably need to get him in there.

Lance Moore: He won’t play.  If you have him stashed since he’s on the prolific Saints offense it’s time to stash him in the free agent’s pool.

Antonio Bryant: His knee started acting up on him on the flight home from the UK. What do these guys do on these flights? Hasselbeck was out for the season last year because of a flight.  Maybe they should invest in a little more leg room?  Oh, and don’t play in England anymore.  Nobody cares.  Antonio Bryant is droppable if you haven’t already.  He just can’t stay healthy.

Brian Westbrook: He didn’t practice Friday, but he did practice earlier in the week and Reid is positive he’ll go and split time with McCoy so that makes what, 2 carries?  He was looking better before the concussion so you need to get him in there.

Aaron Rodgers: His foot is a little gnarly, but he’s quietly leading all QB’s in fantasy points.  Keep riding him and his gimpy foot into the ground and into fantasy glory!

The much maligned Jim Zorn will become a figure head-coach after GM Vinny Cerrato and him had a little talk and “stripped him” of his play calling duties.  I wonder if he broke his playbook in two and gave him a wet willy? He should get his papers in order because he’ll be applying for unemployment really soon, but not soon enough.

Tom Brady: Five touchdowns in one quarter? In the snow? Can the Titans be anymore worthless? This game of course was a great sign for Brady, Moss and Welker owners who had to be a little worried that the Pats weren’t going to humiliate teams and then rub their noses in it like they have in the past. Thankfully they will.

Thomas Jones: I have been down on him all season, but he keeps putting up numbers. But when it comes down to it, Washington is going to keep getting half the looks and they won’t get the Bills every week.  Sell high, and 208 yards and a touchdown is very high!

Ben Roethlisberger: A 72.5% completion percentage is great and usually comes from some banana slug arm like Chad Pennington tossing long handoffs to running backs and tight ends, but Big Ben is getting completions deep and racking up big yardage every game. He seems to have complete control of the offense and is no longer the QB that has to gut it out in the final minutes and is just a good QB.

Chris Johnson: He had 128 yards and a couple big runs. He has the ability to break one at anytime and LenDale White left the game with an injury. I’m not sure where he is on the sell high/buy low slide rule, but I’d just grab it and go all nun on your opponent and smack them down with a trade.

Matt Hasselbeck: He has a great schedule, but he has a horrid offensive line which is probably going to get him injured.  I really am amazed that he was so bad yesterday. He will have some bounce back games, but that o-line is too suspect to put much faith in him.

Steve Breaston: He had another solid game and continues to be worth his weight in fantasy points. And just think how many fantasy points Breaston weighs!  And if Boldin’s ankle injury is anything at all Breaston gains a ton of value, and a ton of fantasy points.

Larry Fitzgerald: Drew told ya’ll to trade for him a few weeks ago and he’s had back to back great games.  The guy is too good to hold down for long.

Mario Manningham: He had a few down games, but is getting a lot of looks in the endzone. He’s worth keeping around and spot starting unless you don’t like looks in the endzone.

Drew Brees: The Giants aren’t a horrible pass defense, but they are nowhere near their numbers so far this year. Brees exposed them like a child looking at a cow and being told he just ate said cow’s brother.

Lance Moore: He will have these games when Brees goes off, but it won’t happen every week. He’s a spot #3 receiver at best.

Jeremy Shockey: He looks like an ass.  Not just your run of the mill guy on the street that gets all red when an old lady is impeding his forward progress, but like a guy who gets in the old lady’s face and says, “do you know who I am?!” And then punches her in the throat.

Mike Bell: The new bane of Pierre Thomas owners.  He is the goalline back.  If he hasn’t been picked back up he’s worth it in that offense.

Hines Ward: The guy keeps on producing.  With Roethlisberger gun slinging, Ward will continue to have solid games.

Matt Forte: Hmmm, it just doesn’t look the the Bears want to run the ball and they aren’t giving Forte enough looks in the passing game. He’s not going to be a complete bust, but for where he went in many drafts he is going to be a disappointment unless the Bears realize they need to get him going so they can win.

Heath Miller: If you picked him up you did well.  In the past the Steelers’ offense hasn’t had room to give Miller the targets he needs for fantasy relevancy, but this ain’t your grandpappy’s Steelers.

Ray Rice: 194 total yards and 2 touchdowns. He is off of simmer and starting to burn.

Sidney Rice: Six receptions for 178 yards.  It was a good day for the Rices and Jerry was nowhere to be found. The Favre has been targeting Rice a lot and should continue to do so.

DeAngelo Williams: 172 total yards with 2 touchdowns pushes him out of the buy low slot and back into the, thank god he went off slot. Jonathan Stewart also had a huge game, but Williams was getting a lot of work near the endzone.

Clinton Portis: 124 total yards = sell and sell and then sell some more.

Kevin Smith: He had Culpepper and Stanton and no Megatron and there really wasn’t much chance for him to have a big game  in Green Bay, but after his bye he has some nice matchups.  Send out some feelers for him, especially if his owner is having RB bye problems.

Mike Bell had a nice game against a good Philly D and then got himself injured.  We have to wait on the MRI, but it looks like he could miss some time or at least be limited.  The Saint’s running back situation is making my head hurt.  This gives Pierre Thomas owners a little hope as well as Bush owners.  Predicting this one is nearly impossible so we’ll have to keep a close eye on MRI’s and practices and tea leaves.

Steve Slaton: I’m going to give him another chance.  He’s faced two good run D’s in NY and Tennessee.  I can’t say I’m giddy with his play, but with the explosiveness of that offense you have to hold out hope and I think buying low is a good idea.

Mario Manningham: He looked great last night.  He has to be considered the Giants #1 receiver right now.  Pick him up unless you hate yourself.

Kevin Kolb: Well, I didn’t expect 51 pass attempts and 391 yards passing.  But that happens when you play the Saints.  He didn’t hurt Desean Jackson like I thought, but 3 picks isn’t exactly what you want to see.  They play the Chiefs next week and McNabb is doubtful to play so at least we now know he isn’t going to destroy everyone’s fantasy value.

Darren Sproles: He wasn’t used like a feature back, but he was used like he should be, on the edges and in the passing game.  If LT gets healthy you are still going to see Sproles all over the place.  Think Being John Malkovich, but with Sproles around every corner.

Brian Westbrook: He hurt his ankle.  We knew it was going to happen.  It will probably make him a game time decision which is where Westbrook feels most comfortable.  McCoy would have decent value next week if Westbrook doesn’t play.

Marion Barber: He had a turf snake jump up and bite his quad.  I have no clue how long he’ll be out, but Felix Jones could be huge if he is out for long.  And a big Felix Jones would be really hard to stop. (more…)

A  statistic I like to use when assessing wide receivers is targets.  If your players don’t have the opportunity the odds of them succeeding, are, well, not as good or to put it in terms nobody will understand, zeep zop zulu cranium.  We are only one week into the season, but these numbers can be helpful. I’ll give you the top 5 and then a few of the other ones that caught my eye farther down the line.

Wes Welker — 16 targets — Yeah, it’s Brady and Welker, this is no surprise.

Randy Moss — 16 targets — A little surprising that he tied Welker in targets. See Galloway near the bottom of this page.

Earl Bennett – 15 targets — Welker, Moss, Bennett?  All that talk of Cutler and Bennett being bff’s is looking to be correct.  If they weren’t playing one of the best secondaries in the league his numbers would have been much higher.

Reggie Wayne — 14 targets — AGonz going down accounts for some of this.  Look for Garcon to get a few more looks than the 5 he got on Sunday after a full week of practice at the #2 position. Could this be a Tonya Harding type thing?  Did anyone see Wayne around Gonzo’s pants with a bucket of scorpions?

Steve Smith – 14 targets — This might be why Jake threw 5 interceptions.  He’s always locked onto Smith which is nice for our fake football teams sometimes, but not last Sunday.  I wasn’t big on Smith going into the season, but as long as he keeps getting targeted his numbers will rise.

Nate Burleson — 11 targets — Housh had 9.  I would have expected this to be the other way around. I didn’t have him as an add yesterday, but I think that was probably an oversight.  So here is an undersight: pick him up. (more…)