AFC South Preview Part II, 2019 Fantasy Football

Completed Previews: AFC North – NFC North – NFC East Part I – NFC East Part II – AFC East Part I – AFC East Part II – NFC South Part I – NFC South Part II – AFC South Part I

2019 projections referenced below are based on razzball.com 2019 projections managed and updated by our very own @RudyGamble . ADP, and strength of schedule referenced are based on fantasypros.com consensus data.

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

QB Nick Foles

2018 Recap

Started 5 games _{(backup to Carson Wentz wks 3-14)}
Beat weekly projections 2 out of 5 games played
7 TDs (0 RUSH) / 6 Turnovers (2 FUM)
Average QBR of 92.28
15.2 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
- #1 easiest overall strength of schedule for QBs
- Leading up to his week 10 bye (wks 1-9), 5 out of 9 matchup are against fantasy defenses ranked in the top 10 easiest and only 2 matchups against fantasy defenses ranked in the top 10 hardest against opposing QBs
- Attractive finish to the fantasy season (weeks 13-16), no fantasy defense ranked in the top 10 hardest. Faces the #5 (week 13 vs TB), #9 (week 15 @ OAK), and #4 (week 16 @ ATL) ranked easiest fantasy defenses

I truly believe the Eagles caught lighting in a bottle with 2017 & 2018 Nick Foles. You couldn’t write a better sports movie with the arc of his career. The big question will be if Nick Foles can bring that BDN magic with him down to Duvall county. It was a smart move by Jacksonville to bring in Nick’s 2017 QB coach, John DeFilipo, as their new offensive coordinator. DeFilipo was the OC in Minnesota last season where the Vikings ranked #4 in highest passing rate (64%). Jacksonville has been a run heavy team in recent years, but with Foles/DeFilipo look for the Jags identity to shift slightly in 2019. Foles is essentially going un-drafted in one QB leagues, his current ADP is 213 overall and QB27, which matches exactly with Rudy’s projected QB27 finish. If Foles is able to repeat his record setting, 27 TD – 2 INT, 2013 season then he will be a steal off the waivers. No need to waste a draft pick on him in your redraft leagues but keep him on your watch list. In 2-QB, super flex, or even best ball leagues, with his attractive strength of schedule, grabbing Foles as a late round QB3 might not be a bad idea.

RB Leonard Fournette

2018 Recap

RB40
Played in 8 games _{(missed 8 games due to a lingering hamstring injury)}
Beat weekly projections 4 out of 8 games
0 games over 100 yards rushing
3.3 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per reception
2.8 receptions per game on 3.3 targets per game
15.1 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

Strength of schedule at-a-glance
- 7th easiest overall strength of schedule
- Might have a slow start to the season (weeks 1-6), 4 out of 6 matchups against fantasy defenses ranked in the top 10 hardest. Only one matchup against a top 10 easiest fantasy defense
- Favorable matchups to finish the fantasy season (weeks 13-16), all matchups are against a fantasy defenses ranked in the top 10 easiest for opposing running backs

Leonard is only one season removed from a RB9 finish in 2017. Surprisingly with his lingering hamstring injury last season, Fournette’s 15.1 fantasy points per game was good for RB12 in 2019. My two concerns with Fournette are, John DeFilipo has a track record of pass heavy offenses (ranking #4 in pass rate last season in MIN) and Fournette’s injury history. Rudy has Fournette projected to finish 2019 as RB13 and his current ADP is 28th overall/RB14. Bringing in Nick Foles and DeFilipo should help Fournette face less stacked boxes. Leonard has failed to average over 4.0 yards per carry in his first two seasons, 3.9 in 2017 and 3.3 in 2018. Without a true threat at the QB position, Jacksonville was one dimensional and defenses were able to go ‘all-in’ on stopping the run. Jacksonville does have an athletic youthful receiving core and, now, a QB that can get them the ball. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Leonard get over the 4.0 ypc this season. I can see Fournette have a bumpy start to the season with a less than favorable strength of schedule weeks 1 though 6, but he should turn things around with an attractive last half of the season and into the fantasy playoffs. If Fournette starts slow, you might find a discouraged fantasy owner willing to trade him for a reasonable asking price.

WR Dede Westbrook

2018 Recap

WR33
Played all 16 games
Beat weekly projections 6 out of 16 games
1 game over 100 yards receiving
6.2 targets per game and Wr27 in total targets (101)
4.1 receptions per game and t-WR26 in total receptions (66)
10.9 yards per reception and .31 TDs per game
10.9 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
- 2nd easiest overall strength of schedule
- Favorable schedule leading up to his week 10 bye (weeks 1-9), only three matchups against fantasy defenses ranked among the top 10 hardest for opposing WRs

The Jaguars passing attack has not been a highly coveted fantasy group with Blake Bottles at the helm and the heavy emphasis on the run game. Sure, Nick Foles, isn’t going to blow the roof off of this offense and make it a top 10 fantasy passing attack but we should see improvements. I think the coaching change at offensive coordinator is the bigger factor with this offense shifting from run heavy to passing the ball more. With Fournette’s injury history, it would behoove the Jaguars to lower his carries slightly to allow him a better chance of surviving the whole 16 games. Also, If you look at John Defilipo’s history, he does emphasize the slot receiver, cue DeDe Westbrook. Even though coach Flip was not the OC in Philly, he still played a pivotal role for that offense in 2017 where we saw Nelson Agholor have a career season out of the slot. The framework and opportunity for Westbrook is there. Rudy has Westbrook projected to finish 2019 as WR32, ahead of fantasy twitter favorites Calvin Ridley and D.J. Moore. Westbrook is getting drafted nearly 50 spots behind both receivers, with a current ADP of 104 and WR41. Westbrook presents a value at the position in the 8/9th round and later.

JAC Quick Hits: No other receiver in JAC is projected to break the top 60 at the position. Marquis Lee is the 2nd highest projected receiver with a WR68 finish, followed by Keelan Cole WR98, DJ Chark WR101, and Chris Conley WR102. If you plan on grabbing Leonard Fournette then you should plan on investing in his handcuff given his injury history. Rookie Ryquell Armstead and Alfred Blue are the current backups on the roster. Keep a close eye on training camp reports and preseason games to see who takes a hold of the true RB2 spot behind Fournette. Hopefully everyone learned the lesson last year, the Jacksonville DST was the #1 DST drafted in 2018 only to fall outside of the top 10. Rudy has this unit finishing 2019 as DST9.

Tennesse Titans

QB Marcus Mariota

2018 Recap

QB24
Played 14 games _{(played through a broken rib and ulnar nerve damage)}
Beat weekly projections 7 out of 14 games played
13 TDs (2 RUSH) / 10 turnovers (2 FUM)
331 passing attempts (QB28)
12.6 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

Strength of schedule at-a-glance
- 22nd easiest overall strength of schedule

The Tennessee Titans offense ranked #4 in slowest pace of play and #2 in highest rushing rate in the NFL last season, per our boy Zach’s Pass:Run Ratio article. Neither of these stats bode well for Mariota’s fantasy relevancy heading in to 2019. The Titans did lose their OC, Matt LaFleur to Green Bay, and promoted their TE coach to replace him. This should not present any majors changes to this offenses identity in 2019. Along with the late explosion of Derrick Henry last season, look for the Titans to continue pounding the rock. They did bring in, OG, Roger Saffold over from the NFC Champion LA Rams to help keep Marcus up right and the running game. Rudy has Marcus projected to finish as QB21 in 2019. Mariota is only a 2-QB, superflex and best ball league play. He provides value in these formats with his current ADP of 212 overall / QB26.

RB Derrick Henry

2018 Recap

RB16
Played in all 16 games
Beat weekly projections 7 out of 16 games
2 games over 100 yards rushing _{(1 game over 200yds)}
.94 receptions per game on 1.13 targets per game
4.9 yards per carry and .75 TDs per game
12.6 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
- 5th easiest overall strength of schedule for running backs
- Rough finish to the fantasy season (weeks 12-16), 4 out 5 matchups are against fantasy defenses ranked in the top 10 hardest for RBs and only one matchup against a top 10 easiest fantasy defense

Derrick Henry is a difficult one for me to get a grasp on heading in to draft season. I think I need to do a Pro/Cons exercise to see which side wins. Tennessee is a run first/run heavy offense, they have an above average run blocking offensive line, 5th easiest strength of schedule for RBs, and Henry finished ranked 12th in success rate, 2nd in both DVOA and DYAR per Zach’s article, Targeting Running Backs... The other side of the argument: Henry is a complete non-factor in the passing game, brutal strength of schedule to end the season and into the fantasy playoffs, two of his games last season accounted for 77 of his fantasy points (38%). If you remove those two games Henry only averaged 6.8 fantasy points per game, 3.9 yards per carry and only 46.5 yards per game. He finished 2016 as RB44 and 2017 as RB37. Yes, from weeks 14-17 last year the Titans made a concerted effort to feed Henry with more carries. We might be suffering from a small case of recency bias after his 47.8 fantasy point explosion in week 14. His current ADP sits at 39th overall/RB20 and Rudy has him projected to finish RB25 on the season. At the end of the day, given the style of this offense and projected opportunity for Henry this season, it’s easy to see why he is projected to finish in the RB3 range.

RB Dion Lewis

2018 Recap

RB28
Played all 16 games
Beat weekly projections in 3 out of 16 games
0 games over 100 yards rushing
3.7 receptions on 4.2 targets per game
3.3 yards per carry and 6.8 yards per reception
10.0 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

same strength of schedule data as Derrick Henry

After Henry took a strangle hold on this rushing attack, Lewis failed to reach over 5.5 fantasy points in a single game weeks 11-17. Lewis’ current ADP sits at 135 overall / RB49, which present some value after Rudy projects him to finish as RB25. Surprisingly, this is only one spot behind his running-mate Henry. I expect the Titans to force feed Henry after a hot finish to 2018. After TEN brought in more receiving threats and return one of Mariota’s favorite targets, Delanie Walker, it’s hard for me to see Lewis finishing that high in 2019. I’ll place a bet on Lewis finishing below his RB26 projection.

WR Corey Davis

2018 Recap

WR28
Played all 16 games
Beat weekly projections 4 out of 16 games
2 games over 100 yards receiving
7.0 targets per game and t-WR19 in total targets (112)
4.1 receptions per game and t-WR39 in total receptions (65)
13.7 yards per reception and .25 TDs per game
11.5 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
- 15th easiest overall strength of schedule
- Potential slow start out of the gates (weeks 1-7), 5 out of 7 matchups against fantasy defenses ranked in the top 10 hardest and only one matchup against a top 10 easiest fantasy defense for opposing WRs

A former top 5 draft pick, and an unquestioned #1 wideout in his offense is going 85th overall and WR35 off the board. Rudy has Davis projected to finish as WR24 with 113.5 targets, which is good for WR18 in projected targets. Corey presents a lot of of value in the 7th round. Last season, the Titans failed to produce any viable secondary threat outside of Davis. Luckily for Davis, the front office brought in WR Adam Humphries, drafted 2nd round receiver A.J. Brown, and have their veteran tight end Delanie Walker returning from injury. This should allow Davis more room to operate. The negatives are the Titans slow pace of play, run first tendencies, and his less than favorable strength of schedule. Regardless, Davis presents a safe floor with his projected volume. If you get him in the 7th round, he could potentially be your 3 or 4th receiver depending on your draft strategy. Sign me up for a few shares of Davis.

WR Adam Humphries

2018 Recap

WR24
Played all 16 games
Beat weekly projections 10 out of 16 games
0 games over 100 yards receiving
6.6 targets per game and WR25 in total targets (105)
4.8 receptions per game and t-WR16 in total receptions (76)
10.7 yards per reception and .31 TDs per game
11.8 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

same strength of schedule data as Corey Davis

Adam Humphries quietly had a top 25 WR finish after sharing the field with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, DeSean Jackson, and OJ Howard down in Tamp Bay. Adam presumably is the WR2 in Tennessee. Unfortunately, Adam finds himself in an offense that will funnel through the run game. He is the next highest projected receiver behind Corey Davis, with a WR68 finish. He is practically free with a current ADP of 218 overall / WR73. I’m only interested in taking Humphries in drafts with 18 rounds or more.

TEN Quick Hits: Delanie Walker spent all of 2018 on the injured reserve due to an ankle injury suffered in week 1, after finishing 2017 as TE4. If Delanie is able to return to his 2017 form then he presents a lot of value at his current ADP of 124th overall/TE12. The big question, can a 34 year old TE returning from a dislocated and fractured ankle return to prime form? Rudy has Walker projected to finish as the TE12. Rookie wideouts have a horrible track record of producing viable fantasy numbers in year 1. Rudy projects, 2019 2nd round draft pick, AJ Brown finishing as WR93. The Tennessee Titans DST finished 2018 as D/ST12 but Rudy has them falling out of the starting defense range with a projected finish of D/ST28. In a division with Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson, and now BDN Nick Foles it’ll be tough to rely on Tennessee for consistent weekly production but they will definitely present opportunities to be a streaming unit.

Next Up: NFC West Part I – Arizona Cardinals + Los Angeles Rams

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