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What are air yards, you say? The name kind of gives it away, doesn’t it? Air yards, irreverently discussed in this air yards primer, matter because we actually get some context of how much a quarterback WANTED to get their receiver the ball, not just how often the receiver could catch it. It’s a stat that gives us much more clarity on what went right and what went wrong in a given team’s passing attack. 

This column will dissect air yards each week, looking for actionable info in the coming weeks. Looking ahead to Week 14, we will analyze the list of the 66 wide receivers who finished last week with at least 30 air yards.

Market Share of Air Yards: Top Five in Week 13

These players received the five highest percentage share of their team’s total air yards in Week 13.

Darius Slayton (132 air yards, 75.4%) – You see, what happens when there is literally no other option to earn air yards? The only one left usually gets them all. But in all seriousness, Slayton has been sneaky good with usage lately. He has at least six targets in six of his last eight games and an average of 83.5 receiving yards in his last four games. He doesn’t get touchdowns because it is the Giants, after all, but he is likely available on your waiver wire and makes for a great PPR flex option. 

Marquez Valdez-Scantling (160 air yards, 68.1%) –  This is the first time we have seen MVS crack the top five this season, as Patrick Mahomes has been content to stay right with his career average of 8.1 yards per attempt and not attack too much downfield. MVS will set a career-high in targets this year (73 is not hard to break in 17 games), but he has just one score, and his catch rate is just 56.9% with Mahomes. Air yards always follow MVS wherever he goes. Production often doesn’t. 

Davante Adams (180 air yards, 58.3%) – The last time Adams saw less than a 31% target share, we were laying out our costumes to get ready for Halloween. What else can we say? With no Darren Waller or Hunter Renfrow, Adams is going to feast on air yards, receiving yards, and touchdowns the rest of the way. 

Amari Cooper (84 air yards, 57.5%) –  Certainly not Deshaun Watson’s best effort on Sunday. He saves that for the private massage rooms these days. But we did get a sense of who his preferred targets are. Cooper saw a 43% target share, and no other player had more than 14%. We need a bigger sample with David Njoku back this week, but as Watson shakes off the rust, it could mean some huge weeks for Cooper. 

Nico Collins (146 air yards, 54.1%) – See Slayton, Darius. Who else are the Texans going to throw to? Chris Moore? Phillip Dorsett? Amari Rodgers? With Davis Mills coming back this week, we might get more accuracy on the throws. With Brandin Cooks persona non grata in Houston for the rest of the season, Collins should continue to see 20%+ target share as he has the last four weeks. 

Market Share of Air Yards: Highlights from the Bottom 20

These are intriguing highlights from the bottom 20 wide receivers with at least 30 air yards.

Elijah Moore (49 air yards, 10.3% air yards share) –  The more things change at quarterback, the more they stay the same for Elijah Moore. Even with a couple of games with Mike White under center now, Moore still has only one game this season with an air yards share over 23% and a target share over 19%. Corey Davis, Garrett Wilson, and the running backs are all ascending in the passing game now. Moore is being left behind. 

Jakobi Meyers (35 air yards, 18.8% air yards share) –  We use Meyers here as a proxy for what happened with the Patriots in their Thursday night loss to the Bills. Rhamondre Stevenson saw 23.5% of the targets in that game (much in the last two-minute, hurry-up-mode). No other player saw more than 14%, and a cornerback caught the team’s one touchdown. I’m not trusting any pass-catcher on this team for the rest of 2022. 

Zay Jones (46 air yards, 18.0 % air yards share) –  The clock struck midnight for Zay Jones after his fairytale game in Week 12. On the heels of 14 targets, 11 catches, and 145 yards, Jones had two catches for 16 yards in this Dome game against the Lions. Apparently, the 24 targets and 19 catches he earned in Weeks 11-12 were much more noise than signal. With Trevor Lawrence now nursing an injury, Jones is a risky player to trust for the fantasy playoffs. 

Positive Regression Candidate

Keenan Allen (177 air yards, 88 receiving yards) –  With all due respect to Gerald Everett, Josh Palmer, and DeAndre Carter – who are all nice players – this is exactly what Keenan Allen should be doing every game Mike Williams is out. Allen should receive 150-200 air yards every week from Justin Herbert if the Chargers want to climb out of their offensive rut. 

I  do understand Allen has been hurt much of this year, but this was the first time all season he crossed 100 air yards. It was also the first time he had more than eight targets in a game, which is quite baffling. 

Allen had a terribly low 42.9% catch rate on Sunday, which was a full 25% lower than his career number. He should have had 120 yards and a score in this game. As long as Mike Williams is out, we have to hope that the Chargers learned their lesson with this game. Allen should not go another game this year with less than 10 targets. 

Negative Regression Candidate

Trent Sherfield (43 air yards, 75 receiving yards) – Things lined mostly as they should have in Week 13. Meaning the receivers that earned the air yards also earned the receptions and the receiving yards. No wild discrepancies really stand out. Except for Trent Sherfield. 

A player with 75 receiving yards and a touchdown had a very respectable fantasy day. The only problem here is that Sherfield accomplished that on three targets, one catch, and 43 air yards. Sherfield caught a 75-yard touchdown bomb from Tua Tagovailoa before the 49ers even realized the game had kicked off. The Dolphins were held to 10 points the rest of the day, and Sherfield got absolutely nothing the rest of the way. 

Tua has made sure Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle remain elite wide receiver weapons, but it would be a bridge too far to ask him to support three wideouts with the type of regular production Sherfield saw on Sunday. A total of 32 yards after the catch is a big day for any player, much less one who got there on his only catch of the game. 

Deebo Watch

This is the weekly place where we check how Deebo Samuel is producing compared to his model-breaking 2021 season.

Deebo Samuel had five rushing yards in Week 13, which is five more than he had in Week 12, so that part of his game is now mostly obsolete. With Christian McCaffrey in town, there is no reason to risk Samuel in those high-impact touches. That just leaves his receiving stats, which are currently in a state of flux, with Brock Purdy now under center. 

The positives: Samuel saw 10 targets with his new quarterback, and he was able to find Deebo with short routes and let him operate in space. Samuel’s aDOT was 80th among wide receivers this past week (6.0 yards), but that can be a very good thing. Let Samuel grab the ball and make play, unlike in several weeks in the first half of the season when his aDOT was over eight yards. 

The negatives: This offense may not be able to move much under Purdy’s direction. And if the offense is turned over to McCaffrey, that also takes the ball out of Deebo’s hands. We already know that Samuel is a sunk cost this fantasy season based on where he was drafted. But we at least need him to have more games like he did in Week 13 to salvage what little value he may have left. 

Notable Players Under 30 Air Yards

Juju Smith-Schuster (26 air yards, 35 receiving yards)  – For all the hype that Smith-Schuster got coming over to Kansas City and how this stop could revitalize his career…..yeah, not so much. He hasn’t seen over a 20% target share or 20% air yards share since Week 7. The fact that the Chiefs have jumped up from a 38% rushing play rate to a 46% rate over the last three weeks certainly doesn’t help, either.

Michael Pittman, Jr. (22 air yards, 16 receiving yards) – By far, his worst game of the season on Sunday against the Cowboys. Lowest totals in targets, receiving yards, air yards, receptions, and catch rate. Chalk this one up to an elite defense and a huge blowout. 

Chase Claypool (26 air yards, 28 receiving yards)""Claypool’s air yards share has been all over the map since he was traded to the Bears ahead of Week 9: 21%, 10%, 5%, 50%, 10%. The target share has been much more consistent (four games between 16%-24%), so it’s almost like they don’t know how to use him in this offense yet. He is averaging 22 yards per game with no scores since he was traded.