The rookies are waking up. Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, Cam Skattebo, Quinshon Judkins, and Emeka Egbuka are all firing after the past few weeks, but there are so many more pieces in this class who could make a difference. We just witnessed QB Jaxson Dart take the reins in New York, but sadly, the loss of WR Malik Nabers could limit his fantasy potential for this season.
Buying several of these players low now could even lead to a potential “league winner”, but that title is reserved for those who not only break out and stay healthy, but smash in the fantasy playoffs. This piece seeks to ignore the rookies who have already made big noise and look towards those who are primed in the next few weeks.
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RB TreVeyon Henderson (NE)
The Patriots are slow-playing their explosive rookie RB, and it’s no surprise. They have 12 million dollars committed between veterans Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. Stevenson and Gibson are being provided plenty of opportunities to prove their worth and carve out their roles, yet both have fumbled part of it away, giving way to the rookie.
Henderson touched the ball 16 times between the first two games and 23 times between the last two games. His snaps have been steady since Week 1, but they did spike up to 46% in Week 3 (due to three fumbles between Gibson and Stevenson). Henderson’s rushing success rate is the highest of this trio, albeit Stevenson’s efficiency is highest at 6.3 yards per touch.
As the season carries on, we should expect to see much more of Henderson, given his early-season showings and the second-round draft capital spent to acquire him. The Patriots face a weak Bills run defense (30th by DVOA via FTN) this weekend. Perhaps Henderson finally breaks a big one in primetime?
RB Woody Marks (HOU)
The Texans may have found their lead back after trading up in this year’s NFL Draft. Marks had a breakout game in Week 4 against the Titans. He produced 119 yards and two TDs on 21 touches. Unfortunately, because this was against the lowly Titans, some may doubt his viability moving forward.
This is a valid criticism, but Marks played 56% of the snaps and has overtaken captain Dare Ogunbowale for the receiving back role. Marks now has 96 yards on eight targets through four games and should continue seeing easy looks out of the backfield due to Houston’s poor RB depth and Mixon’s uncertain injury status.
Also, the Texans face a horrendous Ravens defense this weekend. Baltimore ranks 24th against the pass and 29th against the run. If Marks gets close to the opportunity share he did last week, there could be another big fantasy day in store.
WR Tetairoa McMillan (CAR)
The Panthers are throwing Tetairoa McMillan the ball often, but fantasy production is not catching up. McMillan owns a strong 24.5% target share and a 23.5% target per-route rate. He has 278 yards on his 35 targets, yet has not scored through four games. Luckily, there is a lot of season left, and McMillan’s chemistry with QB Bryce Young should build.
McMillan gets a favorable matchup this week against the Miami Dolphins’ poor defense. Miami ranks 31st against the pass this season, and Carolina will be forced to throw early and often with starting RB Chuba Hubbard out. Hubbard is week-to-week due to a calf injury, which could lead to much more reliance on McMillan, especially in the red zone.
WR Matthew Golden (GB)
The Packers are off this week due to their Bye, and that could favor rookie WR Matthew Golden. Golden’s seen a jump in targets through each of the past two weeks, but has not produced significant fantasy numbers. The Packers are relying on Golden more than they expected early on due to Jayden Reed’s shoulder injury.
Golden does not have great peripheral numbers (14.4% targets/route and 1.30 yards/route), yet we should see a better weekly outcome soon. The first-round rookie is getting open deep and seeing targets in his area, but not clicking yet with QB Jordan Love. He is also receiving easier looks near the line of scrimmage and rushing plays (six in the past three weeks). With usage like this, his talent, and a Bye week to get on the same page with Love, we can expect his fantasy points to come in bunches down the stretch.
WR Jayden Higgins (HOU)
Jayden Higgins’s snaps and targets have not grown through the first four weeks, but he is producing big yards and getting open often. He scored his first touchdown in Week 4, but this was during a blowout win over the aforementioned poor Titans.
Nevertheless, Higgins is looking too good to ignore. The Texans drafted him 33rd overall for a reason and are not getting much from veteran receivers like Xavier Hutchinson and Christian Kirk. If Higgins’ snaps increase in the coming games, I would expect his fantasy production to become worthy of starting sooner than later.
WR Isaiah Bond (CLE)
Isaiah Bond was a well-touted prospect in college, but off-field issues muddied his status just before the draft. As the Cleveland Browns often do, they ignored the allegations and picked him up anyway. Bond has 14 targets through four games, with 10 of them through the past two.
The offense overall in Cleveland is poor (per usual), but Bond has a massive opportunity in front of him with Cedric Tillman on Injured Reserve and Jerry Jeudy struggling. With rookie QB Dillon Gabriel taking over, Bond could be in line for WR1 duties if they built a good rapport in practice.
TE Mason Taylor (NYJ)
Rookie Mason Taylor is looking the part of a quality tight end early in his career. He has 16 targets this season, with 13 through the past two weeks. The Jets have not drafted or signed a “franchise” TE in decades. Chris Herndon had a chance after his rookie year, but injuries shortened his career. Hell, Tyler Conklin is seventh on the team’s all-time receiving yards list, and he was only there for the past three years!
Taylor was a productive receiver in his time at LSU while competing for targets with Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. He is unlikely to reach the heights of his father Jason Taylor, but with a barren receiving room aside from Garret Wilson and a QB like Justin Fields who can pepper TEs (see: Kmet, Cole), Taylor could have a solid fantasy season overall.
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