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Well, as we head into the fantasy football playoffs, how ya doing? Last week and all its frivolities and surprises are behind us. And while I am proud of the Pat Freiermuth suggestion I am equally ashamed of the Odell Beckham Jr. advice. Oh, Zay Flowers, you are quickly becoming my nemesis, but excellent work, man.
So now it is time to make good and get our fantasy playoffs going in the right direction.
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Attack of the Quarterback
Russell Wilson @ Houston Texans, Houston -3, 45.5 o/u
I know it is going to be hard to trust Wilson. In 12 weeks, he has had exactly one week in which he scored more than 20.0 fantasy points. In Week 2, Wilson scored 26.9 fantasy points per game.
But there is reason for optimism. First, a cautionary tale: I believe teams have this inexplicable bounce back when regime changes occur. Now, that being said, there are a few instances where this might not hold. The Carolina Panthers, for instance, it’s not a Bryce Young problem. It is a David Tepper problem, and thus, the Panthers will not be privileged to the bounce-back effect so commonly experienced (ala Las Vegas Raiders’ first two games under interim coach Antonio Pierce. I know…I know they were against the two New York teams, but they are generally playing better). Wow, I digress.
Anyway, that rant was in support of playing Tua Tagovailoa against the Washington Commanders, in case you were waffling.
Back to Wilson and the Texans. All the bright lights are on C.J. Stroud. Let’s let it shine on the defense for a minute. The Texans have given up the second-highest passing yards per game in the last three games, 291.3. Last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Texans allowed Trevor Lawrence 384 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Lawrence also had one rushing touchdown.
Last week, the Broncos played the Cleveland Browns, who are giving up the fewest passing yards per game (134.0). Wilson passed for exactly 134 yards with one touchdown. He also ran for 34 yards with one rushing touchdown.
Sorry, this was a lot of words. I’m just saying Wilson will have to find a way to keep up with the Texans’ second-ranked passing offense, averaging 308.3 passing yards per game. For reference, the Broncos have averaged 184 passing yards per game in the last three weeks. The week prior against the Minnesota Vikings, Wilson threw for 259 yards with one touchdown. So, we know he has it in him. Attack the Texans’ defense on the third-highest predictive total on the main slate.
Attack of the Running Back
Najee Harris v Arizona Cardinals, Steelers -5.5, 39.5 o/u
Last week was the first week of the beginning of the new Steelers offense. We call it Canada Liberation Day. Â The Steelers amassed 432 total yards. Harris had 99 yards on 15 carries, and Jaylen Warren had 49 yards on 13.
For their part, the Cardinals have given up 174.3 rushing yards in the last three weeks. Last week, Kyren Williams returned from IR against the Cardinals and ran for 143 yards on 16 carries. Williams’ running mate, Royce Freeman, chipped in 77 yards on 13 carries. That’s a lot of rushing yards.
The question is, which Steelers running back will prevail? Why not both?
I’m saying attack the Cardinals’ run game with the Steelers’ running backs. It feels as if Harris has heard the whispers about Warren taking over and is taking exception.
So, play Harris. But I wouldn’t hate you for playing Warren. No one would.
Attack of the Wide Receiver
Michael Pittman @ Tennessee Titans, Colts -2.0, 42.5 o/u
According to Razzball slot versus wide, the Titans are giving up the eighth most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Sixty-nine percent of those points are going to the out wide. According to the same mad, wild mind of Bobby LaMarco, Pittman is getting 91% of his fantasy points out wide.
Last week, the lowly Carolina Panthers wide receiver Jonathan Mingo collected 60 receiving yards on six targets and four receptions against the Titans. The Panthers are 30th in passing yards per game while fifth in passing attempts per game (32.7).
The Colts have averaged 184.3 passing yards per game in the last three weeks. Last week, they had 239. Pittman has 13, 12, and 8 targets in his last three games. Last week, in his 13 targets, he had 10 receptions with 107 yards.
Attack the Titans secondary with Gardner Minshew’s favorite target, Pittman.
Attack of the Tight End
Evan Engram v Cincinnati Bengals, Jaguars -8.0, 40.5 o/u
Engram has not had a touchdown all season. He is averaging 8.2 yards per reception, even though he is third in targets, averaging 7.4 per game. Engram has a 96.2% route run percentage.
So, this matchup against the Bengals should be a smash start.
Last week, on his return from IR and release from the chains of a Matt Canada offense, Pat Freiermuth had 11 targets and nine receptions for 120 yards.
It is time for Engram to shine.
This is a Monday Night game, but you drafted Engram for a reason. The reason is now.
It is time for you to trust the minds of the Razzball fantasy football brain trust (I’m working my way there). They are pretty awesome and will guide you through your fantasy football playoffs.
