Do NFL Wins/Losses Matter for Fantasy RBs? This analysis will review how running backs perform in games where their team won vs. when their team lost. We are conducting this study to see how much of an impact being on a winning team has on the running back position for fantasy football. Next, we will look at DraftKings (DK) NFL team win totals to project how many fantasy points each running back will have this season.
Finally, we can use the results of this analysis to help us identify potential breakouts, sleepers and busts based on if a team is expected to win or lose more games in 2023. Â
First, let’s lay out the parameters of the study.
- The study reviews the past three seasons (2020-2022)
- Only games where the running back played at least 40% of the snaps were included. This will lead to a slightly inflated point per reception (PPR) points per game (PPG) since we are removing some games from the sample.
- Any game where the team tied was removed from the analysis.
- The analysis only includes regular-season games.
- The win totals were taken from DraftKings sportsbook as of 7/20/2023.
- The rank is based on their projected PPG, which is calculated using their projected win total for 2023.
- We add an (*) next to Dalvin Cook’s team as we used Miami’s win totals for the analysis. As of today, Cook is a free agent.
| Rank | Name | Team | PPG Wins | PPG Losses | Wins vs. Losses | Projected Win Totals | Projected PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | 22.6 | 23.4 | -0.8 | 10.5 | 22.9 |
| 2 | Austin Ekeler | LAC | 22.5 | 19.3 | 3.2 | 9.5 | 21.1 |
| 3 | Derrick Henry | TEN | 24.3 | 15.3 | 9 | 7.5 | 19.2 |
| 4 | Alvin Kamara | NO | 21.1 | 16.4 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 19 |
| 5 | Joe Mixon | CIN | 20.6 | 14.6 | 6 | 11.5 | 18.7 |
| 6 | Dalvin Cook | MIA* | 20.7 | 15.3 | 5.3 | 9.5 | 18.3 |
| 7 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | 23 | 15.1 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 18.1 |
| 8 | Breece Hall | NYJ | 21.2 | 13.7 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 17.9 |
| 9 | Alexander Mattison | MIN | 22 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 17.2 |
| 10 | Nick Chubb | CLE | 17.2 | 16.8 | 0.4 | 9.5 | 17 |
| 11 | Josh Jacobs | LV | 22.1 | 13 | 9 | 7.5 | 17 |
| 12 | D’Andre Swift | PHI | 17.6 | 15.4 | 2.2 | 11.5 | 16.9 |
| 13 | Kenneth Walker | SEA | 19.4 | 13.9 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 16.6 |
| 14 | James Conner | ARI | 16.2 | 16.8 | -0.6 | 4.5 | 16.6 |
| 15 | Saquon Barkley | NYG | 19 | 13.8 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 16.1 |
| 16 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 16.7 | 15.5 | 1.3 | 7.5 | 16 |
| 17 | Dameon Pierce | HOU | 20.3 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 15.9 |
| 18 | Najee Harris | PIT | 15.3 | 16 | -0.7 | 8.5 | 15.6 |
| 19 | David Montgomery | DET | 16.9 | 14 | 3 | 9.5 | 15.6 |
| 20 | Rashaad Penny | PHI | 18.7 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 15.5 |
| 21 | Aaron Jones | GB | 18.4 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 15.1 |
| 22 | Elijah Mitchell | SF | 15.7 | 13.8 | 1.9 | 10.5 | 15 |
| 23 | Cam Akers | LAR | 16.7 | 13.9 | 2.8 | 6.5 | 14.9 |
| 24 | Khalil Herbert | CHI | 18 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 14.6 |
| 25 | Antonio Gibson | WAS | 17.4 | 12.5 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 14.4 |
| 26 | Jerick McKinnon | KC | 15.6 | 11.4 | 4.2 | 11.5 | 14.3 |
| 27 | Tony Pollard | DAL | 17.9 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 14.2 |
| 28 | Jamaal Williams | NO | 13.7 | 13.4 | 0.2 | 9.5 | 13.6 |
| 29 | Isiah Pacheco | KC | 11.6 | 16.2 | -4.6 | 11.5 | 13.1 |
| 30 | Damien Harris | BUF | 12.4 | 13.9 | -1.5 | 10.5 | 13 |
| 31 | Travis Etienne | JAC | 12.4 | 12.9 | -0.4 | 9.5 | 12.6 |
| 32 | Rachaad White | TB | 13.1 | 12.3 | 0.8 | 6.5 | 12.6 |
| 33 | Miles Sanders | CAR | 14.7 | 10.5 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 12.4 |
| 34 | Javonte Williams | DEN | 11.8 | 12 | -0.2 | 8.5 | 11.9 |
| 35 | Samaje Perine | DEN | 14.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 11.6 |
| 36 | J.K. Dobbins | BAL | 11.3 | 12 | -0.7 | 9.5 | 11.6 |
| 37 | AJ Dillon | GB | 13.5 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 7.5 | 11.6 |
| 38 | Tyler Allgeier | ATL | 11.9 | 10.1 | 1.9 | 8.5 | 11 |
| 39 | James Cook | BUF | 11 | N/A | N/A | 10.5 | 11 |
| 40 | Raheem Mostert | MIA | 9.4 | 12 | -2.6 | 9.5 | 10.6 |
| 41 | Gus Edwards | BAL | 9 | 12.2 | -3.2 | 9.5 | 10.4 |
| 42 | Brian Robinson | WAS | 14.4 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 65 | 9.7 |
Top Takeaways
1. Coming as no surprise, running backs score more fantasy points in wins. Of the 42 running backs in the sample, the average differential is 3.4 PPR PPG, with players scoring on average 16.7 PPR PPG in wins vs. 13.4 in losses.
2. Of the top 20 players in projected PPG, only three averaged more PPG in losses. This list includes Christian McCaffrey, James Conner and Najee Harris.
3. The Cardinals are expected to have a bumpy season with a new head coach and starting quarterback Kyler Murray coming off an injury. This has dropped James Conner’s average draft position (ADP) to RB26 after finishing as a top-10 running back on a per-game basis in 2022. Due to this dip in ADP, Conner looks like a great value as he has performed extremely well in losses averaging a solid 16.8 PPR PPG.Â
4. Five running backs averaged over eight PPR PPG more in wins than losses. That list includes Rashaad Penny, Alexander Mattison, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry and Tony Pollard.
5. The Eagles are one of three teams with a win total of 11.5 on the season. There is a scenario where Rashaad Penny becomes the late-game clock killer in this offense when the Eagles have a lead. This could result in Penny having a much bigger role by season end than we anticipate, making him an interesting late-round flyer.
6. Right now, DraftKings only has the Vikings at 8.5 wins which is 4.5 games under their 13 wins in 2022. If the Vikings don’t take as big of a step back as this line suggests, Alexander Mattison would be in for a big season. Mattison ranks sixth in PPR PPG in wins, averaging 22 PPR PPG.
7. If the signing of DeAndre Hopkins didn’t get you excited for Derrick Henry, maybe this analysis will. Henry leads all running backs in PPR PPG in wins over the past three seasons with a ridiculous 24.3 PPR PPG. If the current line of 7.5 moves up at all, Henry could push Austin Ekeler for RB2 in fantasy football this season.
8. This is random, but the N/A under losses for James Cook is due to the fact in the 4 games where he played at least 40% of the snaps, the Bills won all of them.
9. The Washington backfield will be one of the most interesting training camp battles for 2023. Based on the win total of 6.5, it seems that Antonio Gibson might be the better bet this season. Overall, when diving into the projected PPG numbers, neither profile as a top-24 running back. It might be best to fade them both this season with so much uncertainty at quarterback.
10. The reports of how well C.J. Stroud looks in Houston should have us buying as much Dameon Pierce stock as we can in 2023. Last season Pierce only played in one game where the Texans won the contest. This is why his PPG jumps significantly vs. 2022, as the 6.5 wins would be a huge upgrade for Pierce’s fantasy outlook. Currently going outside the top 20 in running back ADP, if Pierce wins over the new coaching staff, he’s going to be a huge value this season.
11. There has been a lot of talk that Miles Sanders will get more work in the passing game this season which should help boost his PPG in losses. Historically Sanders has struggled in games where his team lost, averaging just 10.5 PPR PPG. Now heading to Carolina with a rookie quarterback and a new Head Coach, we shouldn’t be shocked if the Panthers fall short of their 7.5-win total. This makes Sanders a risky pick at his current ADP.
12. One of the bigger surprises of our analysis was that J.K. Dobbins averaged slightly more points in losses than wins. The main issue, though, is he fell to 36th in projected PPG based on win totals. A lot of this has to do with Gus Edwards only trailing him by 1.2 projected PPG, as they have split work in the past. Dobbins should be a lot better in 2023, fully recovered from his injury, but the lack of passing game involvement caps his upside, making him a risky pick at his RB18 price tag.
13. The looming suspension of Alvin Kamara has continued to suppress his ADP, but the signing of Derek Carr should have us excited for 2023. Kamara’s 19 projected PPR PPG would have him inside the top 5. If you factor in a six-game suspension, his value does slip to RB33, which is slightly lower than his RB31 price tag. However, if news breaks that his suspension is reduced to three or four games, Kamara should be drafted as a top-24 running back this season.
Sources: Razzball.com, PFF.com, FFToday, Football Outsiders, FantasyPros, SIS Data HUB, Pro Football Reference, Ourlads, Player Profiler, and Spotrac
