It’s rankings time! What does it mean? says Jack Skellington, obsessing over the list with a haunted magnifying glass. Well, if you know me, it doesn’t mean a whole lot. Rankings are merely an attempt at clairvoyance, and I can tell you my subscription to CrystalBall.com ran out. Let’s summarize my fantasy sports philosophy:
- There are no perfect rankings and there are no perfect teams. There are 1×10^40 ways to organize a rankings list. Some of them are obviously more effective than others. Read more on my philosophy in my 2021 Fantasy Football Draft Guide.
- Running backs matter: I put a full round of running backs at the top of my rankings because I want you — yes you! — to get a running back in the first 15 picks. I’ve been over the Zero RB discourse and I’m not convinced. I talk about it in my 2021 Fantasy Football Draft Guide. Hero RB/Anchor RB (1 main RB in first 3/4 rounds) is fine — especially this year. But true Zero RB teams (no RBs in first 5/6 rounds) have a weak track record in tournaments.
- While running backs matter, the order of top RBs really doesn’t. I wrote about this in my 1.01 Running Backs Guide. In the past 4 years, no consensus RB1 has finished as RB1. You should only worry about the consensus RB1 if you’re doing 1-2 home league drafts. If you’re doing many drafts (especially Underdog best ball drafts), you’re much better off diversifying with a 20-25% exposure to each of the top tier of RBs.
- Team composition is the most important factor in fantasy football success. Your team is like a machine, and every cog should have a role. I wrote about this in my article about Fantasy Football Draft Process.
- Your team should be built considering pathways to victory. With every pick, you should ask yourself, “What happens if ___.” Does the player’s production rely entirely upon one specific teammate (Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers), or will the player get touches regardless of who surrounds him on the team (Derrick Henry). Will the player get 20+ touches per game if the RB1 goes down (Damien Williams, Marlon Mack), or will they remain in a committee if the RB1 is hurt (A.J. Dillon). I wrote about this in my Last Round Draft Picks articles (here’s another one!)
With that said, let’s quickly describe the rankings list I’ve been using for 2021:
- My rankings are based off of Rudy’s projections. Thanks for the foundation, Rudy!
- I reorganized my rankings to highlight points/touch and TDs/touch for RBs. These categories are descriptive of RBs who finish at the top of fantasy rankings over the past several years.
- My personal favorite RB is Alvin Kamara, but Dalvin Cook looks more likely to finish in the top tier of RBs. The easy way to reword this: how productive is the RB when they have the ball (regardless of rushing/receiving), and what’s their likelihood of getting more snaps than expected?
- Receivers are much easier: targets, targets, targets. For receivers, you can find a useful predictive fantasy value by multiplying targeted air yards (from NextGen Stats) by targets. If you’re not a stat fan, the easy way to think of this is: Receivers (WR/TE) generally have a role on their team (possession, deep threat, around the sticks), which describes the kinds of yards they get. You then multiply this by their expected targets to get an idea of usage.
- QBs are very reliant upon passing yards. Passing TDs are almost uncorrelated on a year-to-year basis (except Russell Wilson). Rushing yards are great but almost no rushing QBs have predictable rush stats on a year-to-year basis. Everybody who drafted Lamar Jackson in 2020 felt this, right? You’re much better off drafting a QB who is a pass-first QB and has the capability of adding 300ish rushing yards.
That’s all! Let’s see some comments down below. Save your hate mail and put it in your drawer because rankings are simply the Zagat’s Guide to your Fantasy Buffet. Have fun this fantasy season!
Late edit: The widget is showing out-of-date rankings on players like Michael Thomas, Travis Etienne, etc as of Wednesday morning. I have reloaded the widget to try and get it to refresh; if it doesn’t work, I’ll build a table and host it locally. TL;DR: Michael Thomas is down in the 70s.
ADP – Average Draft Position
